United States of America

Macroeconomic Overview

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the monetary value of all finished goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time frame. As a broad measure of overall domestic production, it functions as a comprehensive scorecard of a given country’s economic health.

Though it has limitations, GDP is a key tool to guide policymakers, investors, and businesses in strategic decision-making.

There are three main yield curve shapes: normal (upward-sloping curve), inverted (downward-sloping curve), and flat. Typically, the yield curve has an upward slope, indicating that long-term debt is riskier and therefore yields higher interest rates.

A normal yield curve shows low yields for shorter-maturity bonds and then increases for bonds with a longer maturity, sloping upwards. This curve indicates yields on longer-term bonds continue to rise, responding to periods of economic expansion.

There are three main yield curve shapes: normal (upward-sloping curve), inverted (downward-sloping curve), and flat. Typically, the yield curve has an upward slope, indicating that long-term debt is riskier and therefore yields higher interest rates.

The flat yield curve is a yield curve in which there is little difference between short-term and long-term rates for bonds of the same credit quality.

A flat yield curve is typically an indication that investors and traders are worried about the macroeconomic outlook. One reason the yield curve may flatten is market participants may be expecting inflation to decrease or the Federal Reserve to raise the federal funds rate in the near term.

There are three main yield curve shapes: normal (upward-sloping curve), inverted (downward-sloping curve), and flat. Typically, the yield curve has an upward slope, indicating that long-term debt is riskier and therefore yields higher interest rates.

When this curve inverts, long-term rates fall beneath short-term ones, signaling a shift in investment from short-term to long-term bonds. This trend is commonly viewed as a warning sign for upcoming economic turbulence.

Historically, the inversions of the yield curve have preceded recessions in the economy. An inverted yield curve reflects investors’ expectations for a decline in longer-term interest rates as a result of a deteriorating economic performance.