Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd

NYSE:NCLH

Good morning, and welcome to the Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Donna, and I will be your operator. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder to all participants, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Sarah Inmon. Ms. Inmon, please proceed.

Thank you, Donna, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us for our first quarter 2025 earnings and business update call. I'm joined today by Harry Sommer, President and CEO of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings; and Mark Kempa, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. As a reminder, this conference call is being simultaneously webcast on the company's Investor Relations website. We will also make reference to a slide presentation during the call, which can also be found on our website. Both the conference call and presentation will be available for replay for 30 days following the call.

Before we begin, I would like to cover a few items. Our press release for the first quarter 2025 results was issued this morning and is available on our website. This call includes forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from such statements. These statements should be considered in conjunction with the cautionary statement contained in our earnings release. Our comments may also reference non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure and other associated disclosures are contained in our earnings release and presentation. Unless otherwise noted, all references to 2025 net yields and adjusted net cruise cost excluding fuel per capacity day are on a constant currency basis and comparisons are to the same period in 2024. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to our CEO, Harry Sommer. Harry?

Well, thank you, Sarah, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to our first quarter 2025 earnings call. Today, I'll begin my comments with highlights from our strong first quarter results, where we essentially met or exceeded guidance across all key metrics. And while we are quite pleased with our near-term results, we continue to get our focus firmly on our longer-term Charting the Course targets. So I'll discuss a number of initiatives we are undertaking to deliver long-term value to our shareholders through our proven strategy of balancing return on investment or ROI with return on experience or RoX. Some of the more important initiatives include the delivery of our groundbreaking new ship, Norwegian Aqua, the recently announced enhancements for Great Stirrup Cay and multiple projects underpinning our strategic fleet optimization efforts.

I'll wrap up with an update on booking trends and how we are navigating the current environment before turning the call back over to Mark, who will provide more detailed commentary on our results and discuss our outlook for the second quarter and full year 2025. Starting on Slide 4, I'd like to highlight the strong start to the year. Our first quarter met or exceeded all key expectations we outlined in February. Most importantly, net yield increased 1.2% above our expectations and coupled with better-than-expected unit costs drove adjusted EBITDA to $453 million, also above guidance. This brings our trailing 12-month margin to 35.5%, a 280 basis point improvement over last year and well on our way to our long-term targets. Lastly, adjusted EPS ended the quarter at $0.07, slightly below guidance driven by a $0.05 FX headwind.

Moving to Slide 5. Let's take a look at 1 of our key initiatives for the quarter, the delivery of Norwegian Aqua, the first shift in Norwegian Cruise Line's new Prima Plus class. We took delivery of Aqua in March on time and on budget, continuing our track record with Fincantieri, that's now 6 ships in a row, all delivered as planned, thanks to their team and our incredible new build organization. After her delivery, we proudly showcased during Europe before arriving in Miami just a few weeks ago for her pristine by her godfather, and the award-winning actor, Eric Stone Street. Aqua is the first shift shaped by our current management team and reflects our focus on balancing ROI and ROX. From design to amenities, each decision was made to improve the guest experience while also considering the impact on margin and return.

Norwegian Aqua is 10% larger than her sister Prima class ships and perfectly combines NCL's one-of-a-kind service and offerings with guest first experiences that will make new waves at see. On Aqua, we took the strong foundation of Prima and Viva and elevated it. We redesigned or reimagined nearly 30 spaces, everything for the layout and flow to enhancements in our dining venues and entirely new offerings. One standout example is replacing the Go Card base track with the Aqua Sly coaster. This innovative offering not only adds a thrilling new signature experience, it also takes up less space than the racetrack, freeing up room to increase state room capacity and add additional activities and amenities. And the Aqua Sly coaster has been a huge hit, already garnering more than 270 million views across our traditional and social media platforms, a powerful early signal that Aqua is generating excitement and buzz.

Norwegian Aqua is an example of what this team can accomplish when we stay true to our vision of having our guests vacation better and experience more and keep our ROI and ROX philosophy at the center of our decision-making. Guests are happy and the company is optimizing its financial performance. Turning to Slide 6. I'd like to highlight the exciting new development of Great Stirrup Cay, our private island in the Bahamas, which we announced just a few weeks ago during Norwegian Aqua's christening. As many of you know, Great Stirrup Cay is already 1 of our highest-rated ports of coal, and we're about to take the experience to the next level.

Later this year, we'll complete construction on a new peer that will allow us to dock 2 ships simultaneously and eliminate the need for tendering, which can be particularly challenging during the winter months. With this new infrastructure in place, and increased Carribean capacity in the years ahead, we expect to welcome more than 1 million guests annually to the island starting in 2026. To support that growth and elevate the overall experience, we've announced a series of new enhancements, which will open concurrently with the new peer. These include a large resort-style pool with Smear and Cabanas, a welcome center and a new tram system for easier access across the island. We are also bringing the popular and exclusive adult-only by Beach Club from several of NCLs vessels to the island, while also adding Horizon LaBagod, a dedicated family zone featuring a Flash pad and interactive play area.

These additions are thoughtfully designed to drive higher guest satisfaction, providing facilities for new experience and opportunities for stronger overall customer spend. We're confident these upgrades will further differentiate our Caribbean product and enhance our ability to drive incremental yield on itineraries that call on Great Stirrup Cay. But this is just the beginning. As we bring more capacity into the region, we will continue to evaluate opportunities to continue improving the island experience. I'm excited to see these plans come to life and look forward to welcoming even more guests to the island in the years ahead.

In addition to enhancing the real-life experiences on our vessels and island, I want to highlight a major success story that demonstrates our ability to enhance our guest experience digitally with our revamped NCI. We completed the full rollout across the Norwegian fleet in January, retiring all legacy platforms, and the response has been tremendous. over 800,000 guests logged in during the quarter. The app does more than provide practical tools like ship maps and folio news, which reduced onboard service lines. It also is proving to be a powerful pre-cruise revenue driver, a growing majority of our guests are logging before the crews using the app to book things like shore excursion and specialty dining in advance.

This provides us with consumer insights, which we can use to further personalize marketing and also lifts pre-booked onboard spend, which then creates a stickier guest in our customer ecosystem. We're incredibly excited about the progress we're making on the digital front and confident this platform will continue to enhance both upsell opportunities and the guest experience going forward. Turning to Slide 7. During the quarter, we also made significant progress on our broader fleet management strategy which centers on 3 key pillars: breaking new ships online, investing in modernizing our existing fleet, and thoughtfully repurposing older tonnage.

While we already covered Aqua's delivery, I want to highlight the progress we have made modernizing our existing fleet. This quarter, we completed dry docks for Norwegian Bliss and Norwegian Breakaway each introducing new guest-focused enhancements. On Breakaway, we debuted the silver screen Bistro, the first immersive cinema and dining experience at sea. We also expanded dayroom capacity, including in the Haven expanded our most popular specialty restaurants and expanded both premium and free guest experiences on both ships. These investments reflect our commitment to enhancing what matters most to our guests, while continuing to focus on financial returns.

Finally, on the final peer of our fleet management strategy, which is thoughtful repurposing of older tonnage, we had several important milestones during the quarter. signing agreements for 2 Norwegian Cruise Line vessels, Region Sky and Norwegian Sun to be chartered to Cordelia cruises, a premium operator in India beginning in 2026 and 2027, respectively. We also reached agreement for Regions 17 Navigator and Oceania's Insignia to be chartered to Crescent Seas, a residential cruise line also beginning in 2026 and 2027. These agreements are a clear reflection of our disciplined long-term approach to fleet optimization. By transitioning these ships into markets outside our core business with established operators in their respective areas, we're able to unlock value from these assets while remaining focused on delivering a consistent, high-quality experience across the remainder of each fleet in our 3 brands.

Importantly, these transactions allow us to simplify our operations, reduce the average age of our fleet and drive further efficiencies, all while continuing to receive cash flow from these assets under charter. Our projected capacity CAGR from 2023 to 2028 now moves from 6% to 4% after factoring in ships exiting the fleet. This is a smart strategic evolution of our fleet that supports our long-term financial and operational goals and 1 that positions us well for the years ahead.

Moving on to booking trends on Slide 8. Advanced ticket sales were up 3% as shown on Slide 9, while other key indicators such as cancellation rate and cruise next sales and onboard revenue remained steady during the quarter and in the first weeks of April. Looking at the remainder of the year, cruises for Q2 are nearly all sold and well within our final payment and cancellation window. So onboard revenue is the remaining variable, which, as I mentioned, continues strong. As macroeconomic uncertainty has increased, we have seen some choppiness in bookings on the remaining Q3 inventory, resulting in a headwind to occupancy where we are prioritizing price over load factor but leaves us the potential for upside if conditions improve. By protecting price, this allows us to garner higher yields on the remaining inventory if conditions improve while also allowing us to protect price in the future.

As we look into Q4, recall our Caribbean capacity is up 10% year-over-year and represents 40% of our quarterly deployment. This results in a shorter booking curve, so our book position for the next 12 months has shifted slightly, but continues to be within our optimal range above historical averages. Looking forward, we expect our strategic expansion of more close on itineraries especially coupled with our recent Great Stirrup Cay enhancements to fundamentally improve our demand profile in the mid- to long term.

As a result, we see potential for pressure on our top line and are modifying our full year net yield growth outlook to be a range of 2% to 3%. This guidance recognizes the reality of the situation as it exists today and also reflects our assumption that the consumer environment stabilizes as the year progresses. While we recognize potential pressures on the top line, we are maintaining our full year 2025 adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS guidance. We believe continued execution of our cost savings initiatives should essentially offset any top line headwinds. As part of our Charting the Course strategy, we have identified initiatives supporting 300 million of cost efficiencies across the organization, and we are using this as an opportunity to accelerate certain initiatives to capture benefits even sooner.

This is a company-wide effort fully supported by the entire leadership team. We will continue to monitor the consumer closely, but make no mistake, we are guided by a clear strategy. We remain focused on disciplined pricing and cost control and delivering an exceptional guest experience, all while managing the business for the long term. We are committed to optimizing every dollar of revenue, controlling every dollar of cost and delivering exceptional financial and guest performance. And with that, I turn the call over to Mark to give more thoughts on our financial performance.

Thank you, Harry, and good morning, everyone. My commentary today will focus on our first quarter 2025 financial results, our full year outlook and our financial position. Let me start with our first quarter results on Slide 10. We delivered solid results in the quarter, coming in at or ahead of guidance across all key metrics. As expected, occupancy was 101.5% down year-over-year due to increased dry dock days and related repositioning sailings. Despite this, net yield came in ahead of guidance at 1.2% and driven by healthy net per DM growth of 4.3%. These results are indeed impressive as we are copying exceptional 13% growth in net per diem and 16% growth in net yield in the prior year.

The 70 basis point outperformance in net yield was largely driven by strong results and close-in bookings in our fund and sun itineraries including the Caribbean, Bahamas, Bermuda and Hawaii and strong presold and onboard spend. Turning to costs. Growth in adjusted net cruise costs, excluding fuel, came in lower than expected, increasing 3% to $169. The beat was primarily due to the timing of certain expenses that are now expected to occur in the second quarter. Excluding the $8 impact from dry docks, unit cost growth would have been 1.2%, well below inflation and in line with our commitment to sub-inflationary cost growth.

As a result, adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $453 million, above guidance of $435 million. Adjusted net income came in at $31 million, impacted by $23 million of foreign currency losses compared to $13 million of FX gains that benefited the prior year. As a result, adjusted EPS was $0.07 which had a $0.05 impact from foreign exchange losses. Moving on to second quarter and full year guidance on Slide 11. I'll start by noting that today is April 30. So we have strong visibility into the second quarter, particularly as all sailings are now within the cancellation window and there are just 60 days remaining in the period. I'll start by focusing on the second quarter where we expect occupancy to come in at approximately 103.2%, which is about 2.7% below the prior year.

As we discussed last quarter, this is driven in part by a 6% increase in sailings in Asia, Africa and the Pacific versus the same period in 2024. These longer itineraries typically command higher pricing but have fewer third and fourth guests per cabin, which results in slightly lower occupancy. Additionally, given the challenges in the current environment we have discussed, we are prioritizing price overload factor, in line with our commitment to disciplined revenue management as we believe this will produce the best long-term results.

As a result, net yields for the second quarter is expected to grow approximately 2.5% driven by healthy net per diem growth of 5.2%. Turning to costs. Adjusted net cruise cost, excluding fuel, is expected to increase 1% in the second quarter. This is primarily due to the timing of certain expenses that shifted from Q1 into Q2 along with additional costs related to the delivery and debut of Norwegian Aqua. As a result, we expect adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter to be approximately $670 million and adjusted EPS to be $0.51.

Moving to our full year outlook. We expect occupancy to average 102.5%. This reflects a 3% increase in deployment in Asia, Africa and Pacific sailings compared to last year during the third quarter as well as our continued focus on maintaining price over load factor. By prioritizing price, we believe we are setting a stronger foundation and when demand normalizes, we should be restarting from a place of strength. Moving to net yield. As Harry mentioned, based on what we know today and assuming a stabilization in the current environment as the year progresses, we expect full year net yield growth in the range of 2% to 3%. This assumes that our pricing remains very strong, growing in the range of 4.3% to 5.4%, with both metrics coming off record performance in 2024.

Should we see pressure on the top line, we believe we can effectively offset this with continued execution and acceleration of our cost savings initiatives, and we are prepared to proactively accelerate additional efficiency measures. As a result, we are improving our full year adjusted net cruise costs excluding fuel guidance to a range of 0% to 1.25% growth. We do not expect our cost to be meaningfully impacted by recently proposed or implemented tariffs. Our global sourcing strategies and diversified procurement practices help insulate us from potential volatility in this regard.

Our disciplined approach to cost control anchored in a more efficient operating model and empowered by our transformation office, reinforces our ability to protect margins and profitability even in a dynamic environment. We believe this flexibility sets us apart from others. Of course, should the macroeconomic or geopolitical environment shift materially we will reassess and adjust our guidance as appropriate. That said, we remain confident in our long-term strategy, execution and growth trajectory.

Moving on, as a result of balancing challenges in the current environment, combined with our robust cost efficiency program, we are maintaining our full year 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance at $2.72 billion. Our full year adjusted EPS guidance is also unchanged at $2.05 as the reduced share count from our convertible note transaction in early April is offset by FX headwinds of $0.04.

Moving to margins on Slide 12. The combination of top line growth and a more efficient cost structure continues to drive meaningful improvement. Trailing 12-month adjusted operational EBITDA margin expanded by nearly 280 basis points to 35.5% in the first quarter compared to the same quarter in 2024. For full year 2025, we continue to expect further expansion, reaching approximately 37%. As I've mentioned before, we believe we have a structural advantage. We've been building our cost efficiency capability for over 18 months now through our transformation office, and that work is already paying off.

The fact that we continue to progress towards our Charting the Course margin target of 39% even in the current consumer environment underscores the strength of our execution and culture the resilience of our business model and our ongoing commitment to improving the balance sheet. Turning to Slide 13, I'll walk you through our pro forma balance sheet and debt maturity profiles. As many of you know, we've been active on the capital markets front since quarter end. Most recently, we refinanced the majority of our 2025 exchangeable notes with new 2030 exchangeable notes in a shareholder accretive transaction that reduced our diluted share count by approximately 15.5 million shares, all without increasing our net leverage.

Looking at the rest of our 2025 maturities of approximately $640 million, which consists of ECA backed loans, capital leases and other items that we can comfortably cover with our current operating cash flows. Looking ahead to 2026, we have just $1 billion in scheduled maturities which we also expect to be able to service through organic cash generation. And as a reminder, 93% of our debt is fixed rate. So movement in market interest rates will have minimal impact on our overall interest expense.

Turning to leverage on Slide 14. I want to reaffirm that reducing leverage remains our top financial priority as is maintaining a strong liquidity position. Net leverage temporarily increased to 5.7x in the first quarter reflecting the delivery of Norwegian Aqua at the end of March. Keep in mind that when we take delivery of a new ship, we also take on the related debt onto our balance sheet. However, because our net debt to adjusted EBITDA is calculated on a trailing 12-month basis, that shift has not yet contributed any EBITDA. So our leverage calculation temporarily increases. That said, we continue to expect leverage to decline steadily over the course of the year, improving to approximately 5.4x in the second quarter and ending the year at approximately 5x.

This puts us firmly on track to achieve our 2026 target of reaching the mid-4s. With that, I'll hand the call back over to Harry.

Well, thanks, Mark. I'll close today with a few reminders about the long-term fundamentals of both our industry and NCLH. Cruise remains a highly compelling sector with significantly runway for growth. It still accounts for just 2% of the global vacation market yet offers a differentiated value proposition, multiple destinations, world-class service and onboard entertainment, all at a better value than comparable land-based vacations. Adding long booking windows, rise in consumer awareness and limited supply growth, and it's clear this industry is set up to outperform. As for NCLH, I'm equally optimistic. We have clearly defined brands, a premium guest demographic and the leading growth profile in the space.

Our performance is underpinned by a proven algorithm supported by a transformational cost savings program. This makes our business model sustainable in the long term. We're also backed by an experienced management team, a disciplined capital allocation strategy and a firm commitment to strengthening the balance sheet and reducing net leverage. We believe those fundamentals will continue to drive strong shareholder returns. Despite the uncertainty in the macro environment and based on what we know today, we are reiterating our full year adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS guidance underscoring our ability to perform and execute.

We remain committed and on track to deliver all of our 2026 Charting the Course targets. This includes meaningful margin expansion, continued deleveraging and record ROIC driven by our clear strategy, focus and strength of execution. While the current macro environment presents its share of challenges, we remain confident and optimistic about the long term. We are managing the business with discipline, staying focused on what we can control and maintaining a clear commitment to balancing cost efficiencies with guest experience. I could not be more proud of the dedication of our 41,000 team members, both shoreside and ship work around the world who bring our vision to life every day, with their unwavering focus on performance and delivering results in all environments, I am confident we are charting the right course. With that, I hand the call back to our operator.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is coming from the line of Matthew Boss with JPMorgan Chase. .

So Harry, could you elaborate on recent changes in the booked position for 2025 and early '26. Maybe just how this compares to historical levels. And then relative to customer behavior that you've seen in April, what exactly have you contemplated in your updated guidance for volumes and pricing over the balance of the year?

Thank you, Matthew. So I think there are 3 questions in there, and I'll do my best to remember all 3 of them, and I'll do it in reverse because that's how my memory works. In terms of customer behavior, listen, clearly, we saw a little bit of choppiness. That's what we've referred to it as in the first part of April, mostly related to our Q3 itineraries, mostly related to our European Q3 itineraries to be as clear as possible with perhaps some hesitancy for Americans to do long-hole trips during this environment. But I'm pleased to say that we've already seen return to normality.

For example, the week that we're in now from a booking and pricing perspective is going to equal what we were doing towards the end of March. So it's nice to see that this slow weakness, if you will, or the short-lived weakness, if you will, or choppiness was relatively short-lived, and we're very pleased with that. Listen, we're not assuming any miracle or a hockey stick in the back half of the year. We think perhaps this challenge with Q3 Europe will continue but while maintaining a focus on price over occupancy, we believe -- we believe that as demand returns back to normal, we are going to be operating from a position of strength. In fact, if you look at our implied guidance, we have, by far, the highest year-over-year price increases of the 3 major cruise lines that are out there. I'm not here to talk about the competition, but it's a very healthy number for the back half of the year.

I think the implied guidance is something like 4.5% in the midpoint of our guidance, which is really good, and it leads to a reasonably good yield as well, highest implied guidance for yield as well in the back half of the year. So hard not to be happy with that. Turning to '26, we are, right now, from an historical perspective, go back to the normal years in the late teens, we are booked far ahead of where we were, say, in '17, '18, '19, any of those 3 years individually or on a combined basis, and of course, at higher prices than last year, which is always our goal.

So we remain optimistic. I think there are some nuances that may have been lost in our commentary as I read some of the preliminary reports that came out this morning, yes, Q3 Europe is an idiosyncratic thing, which I'm going to come back to in a minute, but part of the shift in the booking curve is just a reflection of the fact that we have a lot more Caribbean itineraries in Q4. I think our Caribbean deployment is about 10 points higher in Q4 this year than last year, and that goes close to home and to some extent, shorter itineraries or some 3, 4 and 7 day itineraries in that mix naturally book closer, and that's not a weakness that's just a manifestation of consumer behavior, which we expect and which is why despite this perhaps what you would call a slight decrease in forward book position over a 12-month period, I wouldn't even refer to it as a softness. We continue to remain within the optimal book position because that takes into account the situation with the Caribbean and the somewhat different booking curve.

I just also want to talk a little bit about what we're doing from a Europe perspective. If you go to 2026, we've actually shifted our deployment to be a little bit less relying on Europe in '26 versus '25 and also are coming out with shorter itineraries 7 days or a lot more 7 days versus 9 and 10, which we think have a couple of benefits. Number one, that to shrinks the booking curve a little bit closer in, which is good. it allows us a further or a longer period to book these itineraries. It also lowers the price point, and it also allows us to have a more comprehensive pre- and post hotel stay program, which we believe will adds to margin of the company without adding capacity days, so to speak, because we get the margin on the hotel stay separate from the margin we get from the cruise day, while, for example, this year with lots of 9 and 10 day itineraries we had much fewer hotels days. So I think when you look at those things altogether, I'm very bullish about both our current position and the future.

That's great, great color, Harry. Maybe Mark, just a follow-up on historical lead indicators, have you seen any notable change with recent onboard spending? And then just on the cost side, if you could walk through flexibility with the cost structure, your ability to maintain EBITDA forecast for this year and just your confidence on the '26 bottom line targets.

Great. Listen, I think from an onboard revenue standpoint, we have continued to see very strong trends, both in Q1 and where we are month-to-date in April. So it seems like once guests are on the ship, they're very happy to spend and they continue to spend at solid levels. So we're very, very pleased with that. In terms of the flexibility on the cost structure, I want to remind everybody, first and foremost, we've always said that we're not cutting costs just to cut. We have been taking a very targeted approach, an approach where we will not sacrifice the guest experience or the brand equity. And in fact, since we started our program roughly 18 months ago, in most or all areas, our guest satisfaction scores have actually increased.

We are focused on removing waste and gaining more efficiency out of the system. And we've been doing this for 18 months now, leveraging our transformation office. We've been gaining that muscle, building that muscle, and it's really starting to pay off. So as we're seeing some potential pressures in the top line, we're flexing that muscle. We're simply doing things a little bit quicker than we had initially planned. We're accelerating certain things in our supply chain system, we're leveraging better commercial negotiations. We're leveraging technologies. And in many cases, we've actually increased the product onboard the ships.

So all in all, we continue on our path. We've always said this was a $300 million-plus program, and we're very firm on that target. We're not going to stop at $300 million, it's $300 million plus. In terms of your question on our overall 2026 targets, feel very confident in our 2026 targets. We've said we have the ability to flex if there's pressures on the top line. We're flexing on the bottom line for any near-term softness. And as we continue to gain and improve our margins, we firmly believe that we're on a solid track to meet our 2026 targets.

And if I could just add on for a second to Mark's comments, which I think he did a fantastic job. I think the single biggest metric we can use to gauge guest satisfaction is the percentage of guests that book their next crews, either while they're on the ship, or the immediate aftermath of when they came in. And I can report that across the NCLH level, we are at a record future booked position. So if you look at the number of guests that cruise with us, for example, in 2024 and how many of them have a cruise for '25 or the guests that have already cruised for us in the first 4 months of '25 and how many of them have a cruise on the books for '26 those are all at record levels. So I think perhaps more important than a specific guest satisfaction score or some other metric, one may contemplate for guest satisfaction, that's where the rubber hits the road. And if we can continue with those record numbers, it gives us absolutely the signals that we are focused on the right things. .

Mark made a very important comment that I just want to emphasize. This is not cutting for the sake of cutting and this is not cutting the important things. I think Mark referenced the fact that we're actually spending more money in certain areas, things like meats, proteins, fishes, the things that really make a difference to our guests, we've actually increased our spend year-over-year in order to improve the quality. So despite that, there are so many efficiencies in the other areas. I mean our favorite things are things like fuel, where I don't think the guest cares how much we buy fuel for as long a ship gets them from point A to point B, which we're very successful at doing, massive savings there and in other areas like that.

Our next question is coming from the line of Steve Wieczynski with Stifel.

So Harry or Mark, wondering if you could break -- and I know you don't like to do this, but wondering if you can break the brands down a little bit here. And can you maybe help us think about what bookings have looked like for the Norwegian brand versus the luxury brands. I guess what I'm trying to get at here is that your booking commentary in terms of mentioning choppiness seems a little bit different versus what we've heard from some of your peers. So trying to understand this choppiness is more tied to your luxury brands versus the Norwegian brand? And then maybe help us think about the recent Oceania promotional work that you did around the remaining '25 sailings. And does this have something to do with the European issues that you called out, Harry? I know that's probably confusing. .

No, no. Very good, Steve. Thank you for the questions. So I'll get into this in reverse order. I think all 3 brands are seeing pretty much the same booking patterns. some pressure on Q3 Europe, which perhaps is a slightly larger percentage of Oceania regions itineraries than it is for NCL but really just limited to that. We're very happy with the winter itineraries. Even the winter exotic itineraries are doing very good for places like Asia, Africa, South America, Australia, et cetera, and the World Cruise on the luxury brands and '26 is looking very well from a booking perspective as well. So no weakness luxury versus NCL they all seem to be doing well and we'll just seem to have this 1 Achilles heel.

I think this thing about the Oceania promotion. I've seen a bit of write-up on that as well. Listen, we do promotions all the time. This promotion is not necessarily different in tenure and discounting, we keep price sacrosanct. I already mentioned the fact that we have -- we're guiding towards a high 4%, close to 5% price increase year-over-year for the back half of the year, which we think is fantastic. Obviously, Oceania region played a part in that mix and are helpful towards that. So I think this is a little bit of marketing packaging, if you will, in terms of reality, in terms of discounting and hopefully, that comment is clear. Past that, I wouldn't necessarily say, you're right, we don't give detailed guidance by brand, but I wouldn't necessarily say that we're seeing any difference between the 3 brands.

Okay. And then second question. You mentioned that onboard trends remain strong. That probably also assumes that close-in demand has been strong as well. And I think Mark mentioned that if I remember correctly. So as we think about your revised yield guidance, is the difference in the yield guidance now versus back in February, the challenges? Just strictly the challenges that you called out around 3Q bookings? Or are you assuming that there is some kind of change in onboard or close-in demand? And then Harry, when you mentioned the word choppiness but it seems like you really said that was only tied to 1 week. So I just -- is that the way to think about it, that it was really just 1 week? Or is there something else that we're kind of missing there? .

Well, I think 2 things, again, in reverse order. It was more like 2 to 3 weeks. I wouldn't call it 1 week because there's now been there 4 weeks in April. I'm talking about now the last week of April doing better. So I'd say it was more 3 weeks, if you will, of choppiness, although we started to see some recovery last week already, and as I mentioned before, more this week, I think, listen, there's also a realization that it's -- it's hard to read the future. And not skip political here, but it's hard to know what's going to happen in the tariff environment and other things, although tariffs don't directly impact us. They do intact consumer sentiment and tough to read what's going to happen in 30, 60, 90 days.

So I don't want to assume that every day is a perfect sunny day ahead or every day will narrow, for example, the success we're having this week. And just to come back to some of these comments, there's a difference between bookings and revenue. So yes, we've seen 2 to 3 weeks of challenging bookings, but you can hear our commentary, which should be loud and clear that we have maintained price 4.6%, 4.7% price increase year-over-year compared to last year and the back half of the year, when the back half of last year was spectacular from a pricing perspective as well, I think record price increases, we think is a very strong paper and compares well to the competitive set. I can make bookings happen by lowering prices. So when you look at our booking bands versus perhaps others, I think that's just something to think about not that I'm suggesting anything else that's happening, I'm just saying that we are super focused on price. And if there's 2 or 3 slower weeks in bookings that we can maintain price, we're going to do it, and we're going to continue doing that in order to set us up a foundation for a strong future

Steve, and then in terms of onboard revenue as we think about it going ahead, look, based on what we're seeing in our trading patterns today, onboard revenue remains strong we expect and we continue to believe it's going to remain strong. As I said, once the passengers are on board, they continue to spend money. So as we look forward, we're not anticipating any significant reductions in onboard spend. Obviously, it's always a variable, but we have not seen any sort of indicators on that front of any sort of weakening in the onboard side.

The next question is from the line of Robin Farley with UBS.

I just wanted to understand kind of what's on your books going forward. You mentioned kind of preserving price and the booking volume being in line. Can you tell us a bit about what price on the books is sort of on a year-to-year basis. And I ask because when I -- looking at your -- the advanced ticket sales being up kind of high 2%, maybe rounding to 3% but your capacity for the year is up 5%. It's up 8% in the second half. So just trying to think about what price looks like on a year-over-year basis, what you actually have on your books. I understand you're guiding it to be up quite a bit, but just kind of wondering what you have already.

Robin, thanks for the question. I think the first comment is when you think about being up 3%, 4% and capacity is up 5%. Part of that, what you're seeing is remember, as we're shifting into more closer to home itineraries, both in Q4 and then 2026, that will have an impact on our ATS. Obviously, we all know that that's a shorter booking window and they intend to book closer in. So nothing surprising there. I think as we look forward, I think the core question is, where is our load and where is our pricing today. And I think we've been very, very clear that as we look forward, our pricing is up and as we look at our load factor, it is in line with historical ranges. And as Harry said, what we're seeing is we're seeing a little bit of choppiness on rounding out that Q3 European destination. And as we look at where we are in our overall booking curve, we remain in our optimal range. We're just seeing some slight volatility in rounding out that Q3 European. So things continue to look healthy. There is a little bit of uncertainty out there. But as Harry said, we've seen an uptick in the last week, 1.5 weeks, and that's very encouraging for us.

Okay. Great. And maybe just as a follow-up. You mentioned you have more Caribbean in the second half. And so kind of a little bit books closer in. So in theory, optimal range would mean that your volumes are down in terms of like visibility for that period. So I know there's still a lot of time to go between now and sort of fall Caribbean. But I guess you seeing -- it feels like, historically, that's sort of where the industry would tend to see softness, not so much like peak European summer. So I'm just wondering how that sort of fall Caribbean, understanding that it's -- there's more of that it books closer in, but just what you're seeing with the consumer booking for that period in that product?

Yes. I think first and foremost, you're absolutely correct. That we do have less visibility in that product. But what I think you've seen from the industry and particularly fun and sun itineraries is that those continue to remain strong. We've seen that both in Q4 of last year and more recently Q1, close-to-home cruising is doing well. And we believe it will continue to do well as we go forward. We're attracting lots of new to crews, new to industry. And I think those markets are perfect to cater to that.

I think where we're seeing is Americans are -- seem to be a little bit more comfortable staying close to home, given what's going on in the macroeconomic environment. So that's where we're seeing a little bit of slight volatility on rounding out that Q3 European destination. So -- but all indicators from what we're seeing Q4 and the closer to home itineries continue to build well and we expect them to do well.

And yes, we also have a little bit of a tailwind with the announcements we made on our enhancements to Great Strirrup Cay, which go live in mid-November. So you're right, Robin. sometimes Q4 Caribbean isn't as strong as we hoped, but we think that this gives us a unique tailwind for this year.

The next question is coming from the line of Ben Chaiken with Mizuho.

Switching gears a little bit, all the pricing commentary is helpful. But how do you think about the ROI of the investments you're making increase PK, Are these investments you believe are kind of like marketable and can drive price and I guess related, should we expect more marketing dial-in over the next 12, 18 months? And I guess I asked that in the question of customers who historically have not always reached the island on a regular basis. So curious how you balance that dynamic.

So again, to again answer your second question first, we absolutely are going to market Great Stirrup Cay more -- not only in the next 12 to 18 months in the next 12 to 18 days. As we've now made the announcements, and we believe we have a much more competitive product, both because there's more things to do. And also with the peer, as you mentioned, we are going to have a close to 100% success rate of actually visiting there. So we're very excited about that, and we are eager to get the word out. And so we will. In terms of ROI, listen we have long-term ROI goals. We've talked about them in terms of our Charting the Course and clearly, the investments in GSE have to meet or exceed that threshold we would have made it, and we believe they will. We absolutely believe it makes it more marketable. We absolutely believe that it can drive price on the cruise and actually also drive onboard spend, so to speak, or spend on the island.

I'll remind you that with these improvements, we've talked in the past that we'll go from about 400,000 guests visiting for a year. which I believe was what we did last year to over 1 million guests visiting her next year, and it will only grow from there, which considering where we move somewhere between 2.5 million to 3 million guests a year. It's a sizable percentage of our overall guest count will visit GSC.

Got it. That's helpful. And then 1 broader '26 question, if I may. As you mentioned, Harry, there's greater Alaska and Africa and Asia capacity, which lowers occupancy this year in 2Q, 3Q is a mechanical headwind to yield. As you think about the greater mix of Caribbean and fun and sun next year, is that a yield tailwind under the context that occupancy is higher? Or do those fun and sun itineraries have a lower relative price, thus netting out the yield benefit 1 would get otherwise from greater occupancy. Curious how you think about those 2 kind of like opposing forces, if that makes sense.

I think you're thinking about it right, but we still believe the net of that is going to be a yield tailwind if you net those 2 things together, and we're excited about that. But in addition to being a yield tailwind, it's also going to be a cost tailwind because the cost to operate those itineraries, I mean you think about the logistics of shipping food for a 3000-passenger ships to places like South Africa or Argentina or Asia, places like that. So it's really a double benefit, a modest yield tailwind and actually a real cost tailwind.

The next question is coming from the line of James Hardiman with Citi.

So I wanted to connect the dots on maybe a couple of comments that have been made so far. So I think in the prepared remarks, there was some reference to the idea that 2025 guidance assumes that whatever choppiness you've seen stabilizes as the year progresses. I guess my question is stabilizes from what, right? We've talked about the idea that -- and I think everybody can appreciate that sort of the weeks around Liberation Day that was sort of maximum uncertainty and fear but the things have gotten better since then. So I guess, do we still need trends to improve from here? And I know I can also appreciate that it's difficult to extrapolate the last week into the rest of the year. But if the current run rate is sustained, is that enough to get to your numbers for the year? Or do you need continued improvement from the most recent data that you've seen?

Really good questions. Something we think about a lot, as you might imagine. Listen, I think I mentioned in the response to a previous question that this current week that we're in, looks like it's going to about match the last week of March which actually is a tailwind because at this time of the year is usually a little bit slower than the last week of March, the last week of March still being within wave and this period being sort of more traditionally slower summer period. So we're actually a bit encouraged by that. But James, I would never extrapolate from 1 week of bookings to the rest of the year. That's a little bit of wishful thinking. .

That being said, if the current pace and pricing continues, we absolutely will hit our guidance for the year. I don't think we would have suggested our guidance for the year if we didn't believe that it was achievable. I think our concern, as we talked about before, is it is difficult to tell whether the card conditions are going to continue or not. So I'll leave it at that.

That's really helpful. And then, I guess, maybe a similar question as we think about 2026. I think a lot of people on the call are much more focused on 26, which I think is fair. And I guess whether -- what the takeaway should ultimately be as we think about adjusting 2026? Maybe the answer is, we haven't seen enough of anything to adjust '26 at all but maybe as I think about what you're saying for 2025, right, higher price, lower occupancy, net-net sort of slightly lower yield with better cost. Is that how we should be thinking about 2026 as well? Or is it way too early to really draw much of any conclusion on '26 relative to a couple of months ago?

I think it's a little early. Of course, we are buoyed by the fact that our book position, as I mentioned prior, is well ahead of historical averages when we look at '26 compared to, say, a year like '17, '18 and '19, which we consider to be a pretty good time in this industry. So to be ahead of that. We started April ahead, we ended April ahead. It didn't really move that significantly 1 way or another in terms of the lead during the month of April. So we are buoyed by that. But to draw conclusions on the full year based on a few week booking pattern is a little bit difficult. But I think we have enough visibility to confirm as Mark had earlier in the call, that our Charting the Course targets for '26 are real obtainable, and we are very confident that we can achieve them. .

Our next question is coming from the line of Conor Cunningham with Melius Research.

Just on the -- I mean, I know you talked about bookings a lot, but just when the soft patch does happen, how does your inventory management philosophy change at all? Like are you -- you talk a lot about being at the optimal book position. But does this -- does an environment like this make you look at that in general, and just how you may put out inventory to folks in general? Just any thoughts on how that may change.

it's a good question, Conor. I hate to get too granular on this call, so I'll try to keep this at a high level of that to certainly a granular question. Listen, clearly, over this last 3-week period, we did look at our revenue management techniques. I meet regularly with our heads of revenue management across the 3 brands to discuss at a high level what we did or what we should do. And clearly, we've made a few changes. But this pricing integrity, it's not just a cliche. We are super focused, especially for the longer -- the further out periods in Q4, Q1, summer of '26 to maintain price integrity. So while, yes, we did do a little bit of close to discounting for Q3 around this problem area of Europe, as we described, super passionate about keeping price integrity because as Mark mentioned in his prepared comments, that provides us with a solid foundation for growth as things start to return back to normal.

And Conor, keep in mind, we have a lot of tools in our arsenal that we go to before we really hit price with our bundling packages, it's all about value and what we're giving the customer. So we tend to flex those in and out, which is a normal course part of our business. and certain pricing promotions, they happen -- tend to happen in very small pockets, very isolated need sailings.

And I'll also point out, and I don't think anyone asked this question along the way, so a volunteer an answer. we are not cutting our marketing spend. In fact, we are increasing our marketing spend. And the guide that we provided of 0% to 1.25% year-over-year NCC cost increase assumes a higher marketing budget than we would have normally done in our base case. As Mark mentions, is 1 of our levers in order to increase demand and keep pricing at the levels that we'd like to see. .

Ironically, that was my next question, just on marketing.

I read your mind.

Maybe you can talk about it a little bit different. So -- so marketing is up, obviously. And then, Mark, you've talked a lot about the cost efficiencies. It's not entirely clear like where those adjustments on costs are coming from as marketing increases. So if you could just maybe double click a little bit on what's going on, on the cost side where you're seeing a lot of success in general?

Yes, Conor. Look, as I've always said, it's system-wide. It's not -- we're not cutting product on the ship, we're actually increasing product. What we're doing is we're eliminating waste, and we're gaining efficiencies. And that is system-wide, both whether it be on our ships but also on our back-office systems. As I said earlier, I said we are really starting to leverage our new commercial capabilities out of our supply chain management system. We really made big strides there. Those are things that do not impact the customer. We've really made big strides on our commercial negotiations around there, but also technology. We've made some soft minor technology investments that are really allowing us as well to gain more efficiencies on the back office.

So again, everything we're doing, it's all around the margin, all with the lens of not impacting the guest experience. And in fact, we're focused on increasing the guest experience as I said earlier, and that's a testament to both our guest satisfaction scores as well as our cruise next increase certificate. So it's a lot of little things, Conor. But as we gain the muscle, we're able to execute faster and still maintain that philosophy of not impacting guests but providing more to the guests in many cases.

So Donna, we have time for 1 more question.

Our final question is coming from the line of Brandt Montour with Barclays. .

So you covered a lot of ground so far this morning. I'm wondering, Harry, if we double-click on Europe, which you keep coming back to that, we kind of get the messaging that Europe is where you're seeing the most acute challenge. Why do you think there's American hesitation to go to Europe this summer when you're not seeing any hesitation for Americans to go elsewhere around the world? Is it just a supply and demand issue in Europe, particularly, but maybe you can touch on a little bit more about the American hesitation.

It's a really good question, and I wish I had a better answer for you, Brandt. I don't want to pontificate or make things up. All I can tell you is what we're seeing. I don't know what to say, I don't know, Mark, if you have any color on that either.

Yes. Look, Brandt, I think as we've said, it's about rounding out the European product. We have a very good base of business there on the books. We have good load factors there, but it's about rounding out that -- those last few percentage points of load. And best we can see is that consumers going on those a little bit of a longer haul trips are possibly a little more hesitant at this stage. And we're not seeing that in other markets, but we are seeing that in the rounding out of European itineraries and it's coming from the North American customers. So that's the best we can see. And I think it's just generally related to the larger macroeconomic uncertainty that's out there. .

Okay. Okay. That's helpful. Maybe a supply issue there. And then, okay, my second question is a follow-up on that and...

I would hesitate, I don't believe it's a supply issue. I think those are 2 different things. Supply issue versus maybe some consumer hesitancy. I want to make that very clear before you go on to your next question. .

Appreciate that, Mark. Fair enough. The follow-on would just be Europe into '26. It's a far away time frame for Americans to book summer '26, but not necessarily for your luxury brands. Those folks are older, they book further out. These are more expensive -- more expensive itineraries. And you would expect to see those sort of -- you're moving into a core booking season for '26 or near thereabouts for those customers now. And so I guess the question is, is that something where -- are you seeing hesitancy for Americans to go to Europe for summer '26 already? Or is it just too far out or people saying, look, we'll book '26 now because we're not worried about what's happening in the macro now that's just far enough away that we can go ahead and book?

So I think there are 3 answers I can give. The short answer is no. We are not seeing any challenges with Europe '26. The medium answer is listen, the first week of April was not a great week anywhere. But taking that week or the week after out, we're back to normal booking patterns for next year that we're happy with and our book position is doing well, similar to the rest of '26. So no, I'm not -- we're not seeing any challenges, I go back to my original answer, not seeing any challenges there. .

So with that, I want to thank everyone for joining us today. I just want to reiterate that we're super focused on our long-term strategy. We are not going to do anything that will eat into all the progress we're making on things like our new ships or on more products, our deployment patterns, our investment in GSC, our improvements to our brand. All these things are alive and well and I have tremendous tailwinds for the future. We're very excited about Q4, Q1, all of '26. And we look forward to welcoming you all to the Allura when she inorgrates later this year and continuing our dialogue. Thank you all very much.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude today's teleconference and webcast. We thank you for your participation, and you may disconnect your lines at this time.