Tabcorp Holdings Ltd

ASX:TAH

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Tabcorp Holdings Limited Half Year Results 2025 Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]. As a reminder, today's program is being recorded. And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Gillon Mclachlan, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Tabcorp. Please go ahead.

Thank you, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to Tabcorp's first half year results. I'm Gillon Mclachlan. I'm joined the call by our CFO, Mark Howell, and I'll take the presentation as read. Today, I'll talk you through the key components of the result and our strategic evolution before handing over to Mark to give you the detailed financial numbers. Today, we present a pleasing set of results, the outcome of an organization that is getting fitter with an increased wagering and media capability, a simpler, more cost-effective operating model and evolving culture with greater clarity and greater accountability.



Earnings have increased double digits on the back of the commencement of the reformed Victorian license. I'm pleased the new license is providing an uplift broadly in line with expectations. We have stronger cost discipline with forecast OpEx savings for FY '25 increasing from $20 million to $30 million and a $25 million forecast reduction in CapEx spend. This is the outcome of greater accountability and focus within the business.



There's been a significant uplift in wagering and media capability at the executive level and a stronger cadence and culture internally with a return to 5 days in the office. Tabcorp has been the leader in this area, and the change is now being replicated across many other companies. In a minute, I'll talk you through our strategic evolution from an almost exclusive digital focus to a broader strategy, unlocking value within our unique set of assets. Each day, we're getting tighter as a business, and I'm pleased to present a set of numbers, which in part are an outcome of these changes. This half has been very much about getting Tabcorp fit again, a focus on cost discipline, creating a simpler, faster operating model, uplifting capability and developing an evolved strategy that takes advantage of our asset base.



We now have clarity in our plans, the right structure with the right team committed to the journey. I'm thrilled with my new leadership group. The new leadership team has increased wagering and media capability to help drive first-class execution. Importantly, we've also moved from a matrix structure to a vertical structure with clear lines of accountability and P&Ls within the vertical structures. Michael Fitzsimons joins us as Chief Wagering Officer. Michael is a rare find. He has a deep understanding of fixed odds trading, tote, retail, sport and racing. Most recently, he joins us from the Hong Kong Jockey Club, where he ran one of the world's largest tote pools and retail networks. Prior to Hong Kong, he had a successful career in Europe, leading fixed odds wagering products. His experience will be invaluable as we continue to uplift wagering capability in the business.



Jarrod Villani is council's Chief Commercial and Media Officer. Jarrod has extensive transformation experience in commercial media, including running Channel 10, which will be an asset as we evolve Sky Racing. Narelle McKenzie is Council's Chief Legal Officer after almost 2 decades at Telstra. Her regulatory experience will be crucial as the compliance environment continues to evolve in Australia. And Robert Fraser, who is running transformation, now picks up the technology portfolio, and he will take the transformation lens to technology. As I said, I'm very pleased with the new structure, very pleased with the team, new people with the right experience, importantly for me, the right values and a desire to get things done quickly.



We've improved our cost and capital discipline. We forced CapEx to gain clarity and agility so we can reprioritize our strategic investment. As a result, we're reducing our FY '25 CapEx guidance by around $25 million. At an OpEx level, we are creating a leaner, fitter and faster operating model. We've removed about 200 roles and our zero-based cost design will continue in the first half of this calendar year. Mergers and demergers have taken their toll in structure, and there is opportunity here. This is really important as we finalize the right operating structure for the future. The capital discipline and commitment to lowering operating costs will see OpEx savings increase from $20 million to $30 million in FY '25. We are very focused on being cost disciplined. We're also laser-focused on execution.



TAB showed up differently during the TAB Everest, Melbourne Cup and Magic Millions Carnivals. We utilized all of our assets as part of the broader wagering growth strategy, and it's a window into the future, both in execution and in strategy. The TAB takeover connected all our touch points, a bigger, bolder on-course activation that gave TAB ownership of the race day. The offer was then promoted into pubs, clubs and homes through Sky Racing and executed on the TAB app. It was an omnichannel experience, and it drove customer engagement. The strong customer response gives us confidence in our approach.



We will continue to be innovative in our look and feel on course. I want us to be bigger, bolder and more active in the way we promote and market Tab. What you've seen in the spring is a taste of where our brand and activations will head. And I look forward to further showcasing our unique assets in the coming weeks and coming months. I now want to talk about what's coming next. As I said, we've been on a health kick, and this will be ongoing. We have a new team, a new structure and a new cadence with cost and capital discipline and staying healthy will be an ongoing focus. In the second half of the calendar year, you will see us implement the zero-based cost review, operationalize the key strategic initiatives and continue to push for structural change. We believe we have a huge number of strategic advantages in the category, and they are ready to be unlocked.



The last couple of years, Tabcorp has been defined by getting up to speed digitally, and I congratulate the team on doing that. Now we are ready for a broader strategic focus that changes the way we use our exclusive assets. We've take an omnichannel approach to wagering while improving structural profitability in retail and media. We have a strong brand, a competitive digital offer. And with the Tote, Sky and our retail network, we have a set of assets that when utilized together will drive competitive advantage. It's a plan that requires all of our assets to work together with vertical accountabilities. Our new structure supports this plan. Our evolved plan has 5 key pillars: clarity, commitment and capability, attract talent and build a high-performance culture with clear accountability under a structure aligned to strategy. As you can see, we are well advanced on this.



Two, growth for ourselves and our industry. We need to lead industry reform with our stakeholders, reinvigorate and innovate the Tote and deliver profitable growth. Racing needs this, in my view, as much as Tabcorp. Unrivaled omnichannel experiences. seamless execution across our channels, providing a unique personalized experience. Think TAB takeover everywhere. It's the key to our growth. Four, stand-alone media business. We need to become the destination for wagering content and entertainment and a globally integrated media platform serving multiple markets.



Finally, we need to develop a structurally profitable retail business. We grow the value of our extensive network, innovate retail as an exclusive channel for engagement, including modernizing retail technology and our media footprint. We'll focus on our broad set of unique assets to showcase our digital offer and differentiate ourselves in the market. Retail will be a key part of TAB moving forward. We ensure the structural profitability for this part of the business while providing pubs and clubs with customized offerings. I am committed to creating a national toe. We're working closely with all states to make this a reality. It's a complicated journey and will take time, but the opportunities to increase liquidity and create more global pools and new products are significant with the national toe, and it has to be done.



Our media asset is a great asset and can get better. I see further opportunities to broaden the distribution rights. We'll also consider greater advertising propositions, including non-wagering businesses given the scope and reach of Sky Racing. This will form part of an evolved strategy, which Jarrod is working on. Max and our integrity services offering will continue to increase in value as governments increase regulation in this sector. We'll continue to look at new licenses. I feel very confident in the direction we are moving and more agile with an evolved strategy play to our competitive advantages. I look forward to sharing our progress with you over the course of the year. I'll now hand over to Mark to talk you through the key highlights of the financial year.

Thanks, Gil. Good morning, everyone. As Gil mentioned, we have spent much of the last 6 months getting fit, evolving our strategy, building out the new leadership team and org structure as well as improving execution. There's a lot more to do. From a financial perspective, getting fit means embedding financial discipline and efficiencies in the business by taking action on structural cost out, reviewing discretionary spend, including advertising and promotions as well as capital spend. At the FY '24 full year result, I said there was a significant opportunity at Tabcorp, and that statement still holds true today. Tabcorp has delivered a pleasing result for the half, which I'll touch on in a moment. Before I do that, there are 5 key messages that I want to leave you with today.



First, the reformed VIC license is broadly providing the uplift in revenue, VC and earnings that we expected given the soft market conditions in the first half of '25. Second, outside of the VIC license, we achieved flat revenue growth in soft conditions, including fixed odds revenue growth of 5.2% and cash revenue was up 5% pre the VRI impact. Third, we are embedding improved cost disciplines across the business and have taken action on headcount and are now looking at zero-based design. We are upgrading our cost savings target for FY '25 from $20 million to $30 million. Fourth, we have reviewed our CapEx and reprioritized capital spend in line with our strategic evolution. FY '25 CapEx is now expected to be in the range of $110 million to $120 million, which is a circa $25 million reduction on prior guidance.



And lastly, our leverage ratio is now at 2.2x net debt to EBITDA, and we expect to continue to delever as VIC license earnings materialize in the second half. So now moving on to the results. Slide 17 sets out the first half FY '25 group financial result. The first thing I would say is the reformed VI license makes the comparison with the prior year difficult. So the year-on-year growth rates on this slide are noisy for that reason. Group revenue grew 10.1% to $1.3 billion. In terms of OpEx, despite the year-on-year growth shown on the slide, underlying OpEx was 1.8% lower when compared to first half '24, adjusting for the impact of the reformed VI license arrangements, demerger dis-synergy, incentive accrual being reinstated and the direct costs associated with the sale of the MPS business in the prior year. I will talk to this a bit further in a moment. EBITDA grew 12% to $190 million, again, largely driven by the VIC license.



D&A was lower as it benefited from prior year impairments. Net interest increased as a result of increased borrowings to fund the $600 million upfront payment for the VI license as well as the impact of the interest discount unwind of $13 million. As flagged at the FY '24 full year, the effective tax rate was high at 50%, driven by nondeductible VIC license amortization and the discount unwind. And finally, NPAT before significant items grew at 26%. For the remainder of the presentation, I'd like to focus on 4 key areas: drivers of EBITDA growth, cost control to deliver operating leverage, greater capital discipline and strengthening the balance sheet and an overview of the Wagering and Media segment result.



So turning to Slide 19, you can see the drivers of EBITDA growth. In the half, the incremental earnings uplift from the reformed VIC wagering license were the major contributor to EBITDA growth. The license provided a $70 million VC uplift, offset by $34 million of costs to deliver $36 million of incremental EBITDA for the 4.5 months it was in place. This is broadly in line with expectations given the soft wagering environment. The Wagering and Media VC uplift from the VIC license was partially offset by increased Sky rebates and the end of relief on New South Wales Popped in December '23, which totaled $6.2 million.



The improved license terms are reflected in the 150 basis point improvement in Wagering and Media VC margin to 36.8%. Other benefits to earnings include the increases in gaming services VC as a result of the annual CPI increase as well as increased field services jobs. Underlying costs improved by $6.3 million. Other impacts to EBITDA includes the $7.5 million loss of earnings as a result of the sale of MPS in FY '24 as well as $15 million of other cost adjustments. $5 million of this was demerger stranded costs, as mentioned at the full year and the other $10 million is the reinstatement of the incentive accrual, which was nil in the prior financial year.



Slide 20 and 21 help outline how costs have been a significant focus over the last 6 months. On Slide 20, you can see the delivery of cost savings through both structural cost out and tighter control of discretionary costs has led to an almost 2% reduction in our OpEx base on an underlying basis in the first half despite persistent inflation and regulatory cost headwinds. We have rebased first half '24 for items such as the change in the VIC JV arrangements, demerger dissynergy and direct costs associated with MPS, which we sold as well as the incentive accrual to give you a view of our cost performance on an underlying basis.



Slide 21 provides more detail on the actions taken in the first half '24, including the removal of around 200 roles in November, approximately half of which were CapEx related, including tighter management of discretionary spend and reviewing of advertising and sponsorship spend. This has led to $19.5 million of cost reduction in half 1. As Gil noted, this has led to an increasing our targeted cost savings in FY '25 from $20 million to $30 million. OpEx will continue to be a strong focus for us going forward, and there is more to do. Slide 22 and 23 demonstrate our position on greater capital discipline and strengthening our balance sheet. In an effort to improve our return on capital and in the context of our evolving strategy, we have introduced stronger disciplines around capital expenditure. This has led to a reduction of CapEx of 25% for the half. Guidance for the full year is now revised to be between $110 million and $120 million.



We are also narrowing the full year D&A guidance to be between $200 million and $210 million. Slide 23 provides a summary of our balance sheet. Our net debt to EBITDA at the end of the half was 2.2x and within our target leverage range of less than 2.5x through the cycle. Net debt reduced in the half to $753 million as a result of strong cash flow outcome as shown on Slide 22. At 31 December, we had $630 million of undrawn facilities and unrestricted cash and maintain our access to diversified funding sources with no debt maturities until FY '28. In relation to our dividend, our target payout ratio of 50% to 70% will now adjust for the amortization of the VIC license to better reflect the incremental cash earnings from the license.



And finally, to Slide 27 and the trading performance of our Wagering and Media segment. Domestic wagering revenue pre the impact of the VIC license changes was up 0.8%, with improved net yields from favorable results and generosity efficiency, helping to offset a 4.3% decline in turnover in a continued soft trading environment. Cash performed strongly and revenue growth was up 5% pre-VRI impact, whereas digital declined 2.6% pre-VRI share. Total wagering revenue of 14.1% was largely driven by the reform VIC license. As mentioned earlier, our fixed odds revenue growth was up 5.2% for the half and fixed odds sports revenue growth was up 28.4%.



Fixed odds racing revenue was broadly flat. Gross media revenue was up 1.6% by increased international distribution, more than offsetting softer domestic distribution linked to the domestic wagering. The increase in intercompany eliminations is driven by the higher Sky rebates as previously flagged as well as the impacts from the end of the VIC JV. The operating leverage in the Wagering and Media segment is easier to see on this slide with total Wagering and Media revenue growth of 11.3%, translating to EBITDA growth of almost 17%. As I said at the outset, overall, we've delivered a pleasing result, and we are getting the business back on track. I'll now hand you back to Gil to provide some comments about the outlook before we open up for questions.

Thanks, Mark. Tabcorp's performance in the first half of '25 demonstrates that Tabcorp is getting fitter. We've increased wagering media capability, create a simpler, more cost-effective operating model and are operating with a new cadence and increased accountability. Our improved earnings reflect the benefits of the new Victorian license, cost and capital discipline, taking the difficult structural decisions and strong execution during the half. While the wagering market has continued to remain soft, we have seen a modest improvement in recent months. Our focus will remain on executing our evolved strategy and business transformation, and are happy to take your questions.

[Operator instructions]. Our first question comes from the line of Kai Erman from Jefferies.

Just one in regards to digital market share. I understand the difficulties in quantifying this and noting the number was not provided, but could you please give some color even qualitatively on competitive dynamics over the half and market share?

Thank you. I think it was. I'll make a few comments. Digital is still a critical part of our business and our strategy. But our strategy is now much wider than digital only and we'll be an omnichannel wagering business and be measured on revenue growth, I think, and earnings growth. To be specific about our share data, I'll make a couple of comments. We've historically based that share data on literally 2 states and the AFL and in my view, that's been incomplete. My macro comment is that I'm pleased with how we're competing.

And our next question comes from the line of Bradley Beckett from UBS.

Just on Slide 15, you've laid out your core assets and how you're driving that broader group's strategic direction. I guess 2 questions on the back of that. Which assets have you identified as the biggest earnings growth opportunity in the next 1 to 2 years? And secondly, what are the KPIs that the market can use to kind of measure success on?

Thank you for the question. I think there's opportunities in all of those strategic levers we're talking about 15. I think where I'm optimistic you'll see the fastest -- you'll notice a difference is in our omnichannel offerings that I hope you'll see in the coming weeks. I think the retail network, you'll see, I hope, sooner rather than later in structural change that will impact earnings. And I'm optimistic that you'll see earnings growth flow from the things you see as we roll out. So in the shorter term, omnichannel and retail [Indiscernible] a significant benefit that will take longer. The media thing will take -- will start soon as the deals we're doing at the moment, they will play out over time. So I think you'll see it in all areas. I'm bullish about the assets we have, but they will tell you some will start to see improvement in the shorter term and a lot of big more structural things will take time. And the measure of success ultimately will be in our revenue and earnings growth as it plays through.

And our next question comes from the line of David Fabris from Macquarie.

Look, I just wanted to start off focusing on costs. So you've spoken about the cost out run rate as we come out of '25. Are you going to be comfortable where the cost base lands in '25? Or should we be thinking about further opportunities to cut costs from there?

I hope you take away that we're very focused on cost. 2/3 of our -- of the $20 million we've taken out to the half is structural. We've got a zero-based work out to go ahead. We obviously, though, at some point, want to reinvest in the business. So there may be more upside, but I also would flag that we need to reinvest in the right areas. We've laid out our pillars for reinvestment, and we need to grow the top line. So we're comfortable with our guidance that we increased the cost out, but there's a play through in the second half that will play out, but there's also a reinvestment lens.

Yes. Got it. And then just with the CapEx savings, I think it was $25-odd million at the midpoint. Look, is this new run rate sustainable? Or have there been deferrals? And I'm curious where you have cut the CapEx?

So just in terms of where to -- a, we'll decide in terms of where capital lands in future years as we develop the strategy further. That's what I'd say to that. So we're not going to be drawn on any sort of guidance beyond this year. In terms of where the CapEx came out, it was actually right across the business. So we just did, as I said, a review of capital spend and really focused on, a, where we needed to put down CapEx in terms of the new strategy, but b, also just making sure that we're focused on higher returning spend. So some of the spend came out of digital and technology, but equally some came out of retail as well. We are investing in other technology platforms such as fixed odds modernization and data acceleration. So it's a bit of a mixed bag in terms of where it came out, but we feel comfortable with what we've done there, and that should generate better returns for the business going forward.

Yes. Got it. Understood. I've got one last question. It's probably a long-winded question here. But just trying to think about capital allocation and balancing leverage. I guess I'm trying to understand how you might make decisions because we've got the VIC license, the VIC monitoring license process at the moment, which I assume you're participating in. There's been prior talk about you looking to extend the New South Wales monitoring license, and then there's always been talk about leveling the playing field in New South Wales. So can you maybe talk about how you'd be thinking about capital allocation, balancing leverage around those 3 items?

All I'd say to that one is that we're pleased that we have so many opportunities in front of us, whether they be to invest in our unique set of assets, to look at applying for licenses in areas of our business, pursuing structural reform that may or may not cost money. So the first part is that we have -- I think it's worth noting we have a lot of opportunities in front of this company, and whatever decisions we make will have to be the right deals for us strategically and obviously at the right price for the company and for our shareholders and so the decisions are made in that lens.

Yes. Got it. I mean what I'm trying to ask, I guess, is that you called out 2.5x leverage through the cycle is the optimum level. Would you be willing to go above that for periods of time to participate in these licenses? Or are you kind of steadfast at 2.5?

I think that's our target. We don't have any plans to go through that. But we have, as I said, a lot of opportunities that we are working through with the Board.

Yes. Just to be clear on the target ratio, we're not saying we want to optimize the balance sheet at 2.5x. What we're saying is our target range is less than 2.5x through the cycle. As you call out, there may be short periods of time for strategic deals. But our sort of standard operating procedure is to be below that level.

And our next question comes from the line of Rohan Sundram from MST Financial.

I might just start with the -- just following on from David's question. In terms of your strategic priorities, do you want to achieve an outcome in New South Wales around tax reform? Is that still as high a priority as we might have perceived maybe 6 or 12 months ago? Or it seems like there's a big internal focus at the moment. If you're just able to comment on that, that would be great.

Thanks. Good question. First of all, reform in New South Wales is a huge priority. I would say that as we look at our suite of assets, it is one of a number of priorities, but it's very important. I'd make a few comments on New South Wales specifically. It's difficult. It's a long-term deal, but for the company, reform is critical. It's a license that was constructed in the '90s and a lot has changed in the market through that period. And I think that's context everyone knows. To give you a specific update, so we've been pursuing that assertively.



I can't comment too much about the process, but we are involved in a process with the New South Wales government, and I've got confidentiality undertakings around that other than to say there is a submission as part of that process in front of the treasury and that we are actively engaged with all 3 codes involved in New South Wales racing. And I think we are involved in constructive discussions with them, speaking regularly and they are looped into that reform process.

And our next question comes from the line of Rohan Gallagher from Jarden Group.

I think that's me. Most of my questions have been answered. Congratulations on the turnaround and the progress being made to date. One question I do have is just in regards to product placement, it obviously, a bit close to home for you, Gil. We saw the AFL talking about pricing. Can you just sort of talk about where that is in the scheme of things, how that fits within your strategy, and the respective exposure that you have to sports placement, product fees, et cetera?

Well, clearly, increases, we will have discussion with the sports bodies with that. I have a history with the AFL, which means I think there'll be fair discussions. Those agreements haven't been inked. I think that the broader fee and tax regimes are reaching their limits. And I think that's broadly something that we need to continue to talk to the market with the external market whether there is a point where they have their limits. And I think we're reaching them, and that's a point I'll continue to push widely.

Our next question comes from the line of Paul Mason from E&P.

Just first one for me is just wanting to get some color on sort of your ideas around unifying the tote and then reinvigorating it, if there any like strategy you can sort of talk to on that front?

Yes. I think there are 3 legs to it. And I think I talked a little bit in my notes, Paul, that it's not easy. So there regulatory approvals are required. There is a partnership with PRAs, specifically Queensland, and New South Wales. There's the actual technological integration. So there are the 3 lenses. So there is work going on all 3 fronts. The vision is obviously one pool nationally. The upside of that is that liquidity has a whole series of benefits, including facilitating product innovation, and markets that are attractive internationally. So we think that, that will benefit clearly, our total assets will benefit the consumer. It gives us an opportunity to innovate and then play that out through our exclusive retail network. It also gives us the ability to talk internationally with these extraordinary media assets we have. So the journey to get there, the vision is one pool.



There are regulatory stakeholder and technology things we're working through. They are being done in parallel and update them this week, and there's a whole series of details in terms of things to get there around takeout rates being unified, a whole series of complicated things that need to be worked through. But the vision is then we get to utilize that for product innovation that benefits the customer, and we can play it through our assets and play that out internationally.

Okay. Great. And just the second one for me was just on the advertising reforms. Just there's been some media around that recently. It looks like it might get caught up in the next election. But is there anything you guys could update on there around whether you expect additional reforms to come in in the near future, like ahead of an election or do you think it's been pushed out because of sort of getting too close now?

That's clearly up to the government. I'm not avoiding the question, but there's a lot going into that process. I don't think anything, it's unlikely to happen in my view, prior to the election. With respect to Tabcorp, I think that we are less engaged than other operators because of our unique set of assets. I think that whatever happens in a regulatory sense, we're well positioned the way we are, our advertising and promotion portfolio is constructed, and the way we have a media business and a set of retail assets that will talk directly to the consumer. And I think that we are less engaged than others on that issue.

This concludes the question-and-answer session of today's program. I'd like to hand the program back to management for any further remarks.

Final comments from me. Thank you all for taking the time to join us today. Thank you for being part of Tabcorp's journey through this first half of FY '25. I'm very pleased with the team. I've stood up. I'm obviously very happy with the new structures and how they align with an evolved plan. I think Tabcorp has a great set of assets to build on. The second half is going to be characterized by getting on the tools, operationalizing that plan, and starting to grow and transform the business, and I look forward to being part of that journey. Thanks very much.

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Good day.