Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc
NASDAQ:SNCY
Intrinsic Value
Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc. engages in the provision of scheduled passenger service, charter air transportation and, cargo businesses. [ Read More ]
The intrinsic value of one SNCY stock under the Base Case scenario is 33.92 USD. Compared to the current market price of 15.09 USD, Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc is Undervalued by 56%.
Valuation Backtest
Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc
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Fundamental Analysis
Airline Forecasts Strong Growth and Profitability
2023-Q4 Earnings Call
Assembling a flight plan for financial growth, the airline has navigated post-COVID turbulence to set the stage for a bright 2024. By strategically optimizing their staffing across major labor groups, they’ve managed to enhance operational performance, pushing ASMs up by nearly 15% in Q4—with a marginal TRASM decline—and setting the course for a 15% ASM increase in Q1 2024 against the prior year. With full throttle on their diversified model—including the scheduled, charter, and cargo segments—the company anticipates continued profitability, projecting Q1 total revenue between $310 and $320 million, and full quarter block hour growth of 8-11%. Their cost efficiency seen in a 2.2% decline in Q4’s adjusted CASM, combined with disciplined CapEx, expected at roughly $100 million for 2024, and a robust $234 million in liquidity at the start of the year, propels them forward. All indicators point towards a strong free cash flow in 2024, aided by a solid balance sheet reflected in a reduced net debt to EBITDA ratio from 2.7x to 2.2x. The cockpit is set: with cost per gallon for fuel at $3 and an expected operating margin of 17-21%, the airline is cruising towards sustained, profitable expansion.
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc
Current Assets | 271.4m |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 187.4m |
Receivables | 38.2m |
Other Current Assets | 45.8m |
Non-Current Assets | 1.4B |
PP&E | 983.9m |
Intangibles | 305.8m |
Other Non-Current Assets | 62.6m |
Current Liabilities | 418.6m |
Accounts Payable | 59m |
Accrued Liabilities | 211.6m |
Other Current Liabilities | 148m |
Non-Current Liabilities | 690.6m |
Long-Term Debt | 560m |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 130.6m |
Earnings Waterfall
Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc
Revenue
|
1B
USD
|
Cost of Revenue
|
-359.2m
USD
|
Gross Profit
|
690.5m
USD
|
Operating Expenses
|
-563m
USD
|
Operating Income
|
127.5m
USD
|
Other Expenses
|
-55.3m
USD
|
Net Income
|
72.2m
USD
|
Free Cash Flow Analysis
Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc
What is Free Cash Flow?
SNCY Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc's profitability score is 54/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc's profitability score is 54/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
SNCY Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc's solvency score is 32/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc's solvency score is 32/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
SNCY Price Targets Summary
Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for SNCY is 20.55 USD with a low forecast of 15.15 USD and a high forecast of 26.25 USD.
Ownership
SNCY Insider Trading
Buy and sell transactions by insiders
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Shareholder Return
SNCY Price
Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc
Average Annual Return | -33.04% |
Standard Deviation of Annual Returns | 14.47% |
Max Drawdown | -72% |
Market Capitalization | 804.2m USD |
Shares Outstanding | 53 291 000 |
Percentage of Shares Shorted | 6.51% |
SNCY News
Last Important Events
Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc
Significant happenings or occurrences that are of interest to investors. These could be company-specific developments or market-wide shifts.
Sentiment Analysis
Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc
Company Profile
Country
Industry
Market Cap
Dividend Yield
Description
Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc. engages in the provision of scheduled passenger service, charter air transportation and, cargo businesses. The company is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota and currently employs 2,181 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2021-03-17. The company focuses on serving leisure and visiting friends and relatives (VFR) passengers and charter customers and providing crew, maintenance and insurance (CMI) service to Amazon.com Services, LLC (Amazon), with flights throughout the United States and to destinations in Canada, Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean. The firm operated a fleet of 48 Boeing 737-NG aircraft, consisting of 47 Boeing 737-800s and one Boeing 737-700. The company provides low-fare passenger airline service primarily to leisure and VFR travelers. In addition to base fares, passengers can choose from a number of ancillary products for an additional cost. The Company’s charter business services a variety of customers, including casino operators, the United States Department of Defense, college sports teams and professional sports teams.
Contact
IPO
Employees
Officers
The intrinsic value of one SNCY stock under the Base Case scenario is 33.92 USD.
Compared to the current market price of 15.09 USD, Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc is Undervalued by 56%.