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Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc
NASDAQ:SNCY

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Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc Logo
Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc
NASDAQ:SNCY
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Price: 15.09 USD 0.2% Market Closed
Updated: Mar 29, 2024

Intrinsic Value

Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc. engages in the provision of scheduled passenger service, charter air transportation and, cargo businesses. [ Read More ]

The intrinsic value of one SNCY stock under the Base Case scenario is 33.92 USD. Compared to the current market price of 15.09 USD, Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc is Undervalued by 56%.

Key Points:
SNCY Intrinsic Value
Base Case
33.92 USD
Undervaluation 56%
Intrinsic Value
Price
Worst Case
Base Case
Best Case

Valuation Backtest
Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc

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Fundamental Analysis

Airline Forecasts Strong Growth and Profitability
2023-Q4 Earnings Call

Airline Forecasts Strong Growth and Profitability

Assembling a flight plan for financial growth, the airline has navigated post-COVID turbulence to set the stage for a bright 2024. By strategically optimizing their staffing across major labor groups, they’ve managed to enhance operational performance, pushing ASMs up by nearly 15% in Q4—with a marginal TRASM decline—and setting the course for a 15% ASM increase in Q1 2024 against the prior year. With full throttle on their diversified model—including the scheduled, charter, and cargo segments—the company anticipates continued profitability, projecting Q1 total revenue between $310 and $320 million, and full quarter block hour growth of 8-11%. Their cost efficiency seen in a 2.2% decline in Q4’s adjusted CASM, combined with disciplined CapEx, expected at roughly $100 million for 2024, and a robust $234 million in liquidity at the start of the year, propels them forward. All indicators point towards a strong free cash flow in 2024, aided by a solid balance sheet reflected in a reduced net debt to EBITDA ratio from 2.7x to 2.2x. The cockpit is set: with cost per gallon for fuel at $3 and an expected operating margin of 17-21%, the airline is cruising towards sustained, profitable expansion.

Financials

Balance Sheet Decomposition
Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc

Current Assets 271.4m
Cash & Short-Term Investments 187.4m
Receivables 38.2m
Other Current Assets 45.8m
Non-Current Assets 1.4B
PP&E 983.9m
Intangibles 305.8m
Other Non-Current Assets 62.6m
Current Liabilities 418.6m
Accounts Payable 59m
Accrued Liabilities 211.6m
Other Current Liabilities 148m
Non-Current Liabilities 690.6m
Long-Term Debt 560m
Other Non-Current Liabilities 130.6m
Efficiency

Earnings Waterfall
Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc

Revenue
1B USD
Cost of Revenue
-359.2m USD
Gross Profit
690.5m USD
Operating Expenses
-563m USD
Operating Income
127.5m USD
Other Expenses
-55.3m USD
Net Income
72.2m USD

Free Cash Flow Analysis
Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc

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3-Years Average
FCF Margin
Conversion Rate
History
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Fundamental Scores

SNCY Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence

Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc's profitability score is 54/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.

Positive Gross Profit
Exceptional 3-Years Revenue Growth
ROE is Increasing
ROIC is Increasing
54/100
Profitability
Score

Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc's profitability score is 54/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.

SNCY Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence

Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc's solvency score is 32/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.

Long-Term Solvency
Average D/E
Positive Net Debt
Short-Term Solvency
32/100
Solvency
Score

Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc's solvency score is 32/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.

Wall St
Price Targets

SNCY Price Targets Summary
Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc

Wall Street analysts forecast SNCY stock price to rise over the next 12 months.

According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for SNCY is 20.55 USD with a low forecast of 15.15 USD and a high forecast of 26.25 USD.

Lowest
Price Target
15.15 USD
0% Upside
Average
Price Target
20.55 USD
36% Upside
Highest
Price Target
26.25 USD
74% Upside
View Analyst Estimates
View Analyst Estimates

Competitive Landscape

Ownership

SNCY Insider Trading
Buy and sell transactions by insiders

Cumulative Transactions Amount
Period Sold Bought Net
3 Months
6 Months
9 Months
12 Months
Why is insider trading important?

Shareholder Return

SNCY Price
Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc

1M 1M
+1%
6M 6M
+2%
1Y 1Y
-24%
3Y 3Y
-55%
5Y 5Y
-59%
10Y 10Y
-59%
Annual Price Range
15.09
52w Low
12.27
52w High
23.27
Price Metrics
Average Annual Return -33.04%
Standard Deviation of Annual Returns 14.47%
Max Drawdown -72%
Shares Statistics
Market Capitalization 804.2m USD
Shares Outstanding 53 291 000
Percentage of Shares Shorted 6.51%

SNCY Return Decomposition
Main factors of price return

What is price return decomposition?

SNCY News

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Last Important Events
Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc

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Sentiment Analysis
Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc

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Company Profile

Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc Logo
Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc

Country

United States of America

Industry

Airlines

Market Cap

804.2m USD

Dividend Yield

0%

Description

Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc. engages in the provision of scheduled passenger service, charter air transportation and, cargo businesses. The company is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota and currently employs 2,181 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2021-03-17. The company focuses on serving leisure and visiting friends and relatives (VFR) passengers and charter customers and providing crew, maintenance and insurance (CMI) service to Amazon.com Services, LLC (Amazon), with flights throughout the United States and to destinations in Canada, Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean. The firm operated a fleet of 48 Boeing 737-NG aircraft, consisting of 47 Boeing 737-800s and one Boeing 737-700. The company provides low-fare passenger airline service primarily to leisure and VFR travelers. In addition to base fares, passengers can choose from a number of ancillary products for an additional cost. The Company’s charter business services a variety of customers, including casino operators, the United States Department of Defense, college sports teams and professional sports teams.

Contact

MINNESOTA
Minneapolis
2005 Cargo Road
+16516813900.0
https://www.suncountry.com

IPO

2021-03-17

Employees

2 181

Officers

CEO & Director
Mr. Jude I. Bricker
CFO, President & Director
Mr. David M. Davis
Senior VP, General Counsel & Secretary
Ms. Rose Neale
COO & Executive VP
Mr. Gregory A. Mays
VP of Finance & Chief Accounting Officer
Mr. John Gyurci
Chief Information Officer & Executive VP
Mr. Jeffrey Mader
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Senior VP & Chief Marketing Officer
Mr. Brian Edward Davis
Senior VP & Chief Human Resource Officer
Mr. Eric Levenhagen
Chief Revenue Officer & Executive VP
Mr. Grant Whitney
VP of Financial Planning & Analysis and Treasurer
Mr. William Trousdale
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See Also

Discover More
What is the Intrinsic Value of one SNCY stock?

The intrinsic value of one SNCY stock under the Base Case scenario is 33.92 USD.

Is SNCY stock undervalued or overvalued?

Compared to the current market price of 15.09 USD, Sun Country Airlines Holdings Inc is Undervalued by 56%.