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Allison Transmission Holdings Inc
NYSE:ALSN

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Allison Transmission Holdings Inc Logo
Allison Transmission Holdings Inc
NYSE:ALSN
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Price: 76.24 USD 1.29% Market Closed
Updated: Mar 19, 2024

Intrinsic Value

Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. engages in the design and manufacture of vehicle propulsion solutions for commercial and defense vehicles. [ Read More ]

The intrinsic value of one ALSN stock under the Base Case scenario is 108 USD. Compared to the current market price of 76.24 USD, Allison Transmission Holdings Inc is Undervalued by 29%.

Key Points:
ALSN Intrinsic Value
Base Case
108 USD
Undervaluation 29%
Intrinsic Value
Price
Worst Case
Base Case
Best Case

Valuation Backtest
Allison Transmission Holdings Inc

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Fundamental Analysis

Allison Transmission Sets Record Sales, Optimistic for 2024
2023-Q4 Earnings Call

Allison Transmission Sets Record Sales, Optimistic for 2024

Allison Transmission celebrated a strong ending to 2023 with record annual sales of $3.035 billion, a 10% growth bolstered by the North America On-Highway market up 13% and the service parts sector gaining 18%. Adjusted EBITDA rose to $1.108 billion, with a 180 basis point margin expansion, and net income surged 27% to $673 million. Earnings per share hit an all-time high of $7.40, reflecting a 34% increase. Over $100 million in shares were repurchased in Q4, totaling over $260 million for 2023, which represents nearly 6% of outstanding shares. For Q4, gross profit increased 10% to $371 million, and adjusted EBITDA grew to $277 million. Free cash flow also went up to $186 million. Looking ahead, 2024 sales are projected between $3.05 billion and $3.15 billion, with a net income guidance of $635 million to $685 million. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $1.07 billion and $1.13 billion, and free cash flow is estimated to run from $575 million to $625 million.

Financials

Balance Sheet Decomposition
Allison Transmission Holdings Inc

Current Assets 1.3B
Cash & Short-Term Investments 555m
Receivables 356m
Other Current Assets 339m
Non-Current Assets 3.8B
Long-Term Investments 20m
PP&E 774m
Intangibles 2.9B
Other Non-Current Assets 72m
Current Liabilities 501m
Accounts Payable 210m
Accrued Liabilities 177m
Other Current Liabilities 114m
Non-Current Liabilities 3.3B
Long-Term Debt 2.5B
Other Non-Current Liabilities 794m
Efficiency

Earnings Waterfall
Allison Transmission Holdings Inc

Revenue
3B USD
Cost of Revenue
-1.6B USD
Gross Profit
1.5B USD
Operating Expenses
-551m USD
Operating Income
919m USD
Other Expenses
-246m USD
Net Income
673m USD

Free Cash Flow Analysis
Allison Transmission Holdings Inc

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3-Years Average
FCF Margin
Conversion Rate
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Fundamental Scores

ALSN Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence

Allison Transmission Holdings Inc's profitability score is 74/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.

Exceptional 3-Year Average ROE
Positive Free Cash Flow
Positive Gross Profit
Exceptional ROE
74/100
Profitability
Score

Allison Transmission Holdings Inc's profitability score is 74/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.

ALSN Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence

Allison Transmission Holdings Inc's solvency score is 42/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.

Short-Term Solvency
Long-Term Solvency
High D/E
Average Altman Z-Score
42/100
Solvency
Score

Allison Transmission Holdings Inc's solvency score is 42/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.

Wall St
Price Targets

ALSN Price Targets Summary
Allison Transmission Holdings Inc

Wall Street analysts forecast ALSN stock price to drop over the next 12 months.

According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ALSN is 66.1 USD with a low forecast of 55.55 USD and a high forecast of 80.85 USD.

Lowest
Price Target
55.55 USD
27% Downside
Average
Price Target
66.1 USD
13% Downside
Highest
Price Target
80.85 USD
6% Upside
View Analyst Estimates
View Analyst Estimates

Competitive Landscape

Ownership

ALSN Insider Trading
Buy and sell transactions by insiders

Cumulative Transactions Amount
Period Sold Bought Net
3 Months
6 Months
9 Months
12 Months
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Shareholder Return

ALSN Price
Allison Transmission Holdings Inc

1M 1M
+7%
6M 6M
+27%
1Y 1Y
+79%
3Y 3Y
+88%
5Y 5Y
+77%
10Y 10Y
+207%
Annual Price Range
76.24
52w Low
42.48
52w High
76.24
Price Metrics
Average Annual Return -0.47%
Standard Deviation of Annual Returns 13.42%
Max Drawdown -45%
Shares Statistics
Market Capitalization 6.7B USD
Shares Outstanding 89 005 235
Percentage of Shares Shorted 1.27%

ALSN Return Decomposition
Main factors of price return

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ALSN News

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Company Profile

Allison Transmission Holdings Inc Logo
Allison Transmission Holdings Inc

Country

United States of America

Industry

Machinery

Market Cap

6.7B USD

Dividend Yield

1.33%

Description

Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. engages in the design and manufacture of vehicle propulsion solutions for commercial and defense vehicles. The company is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana and currently employs 3,400 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2012-03-15. The company operates across Europe, Asia, South America and Africa. The firm manufactures fully automatic transmissions for medium and heavy-duty commercial vehicles and medium and heavy-tactical United States defense vehicles and is a supplier of commercial vehicle electric hybrid and fully electric propulsion systems. Its transmissions and electric propulsion solutions are sold under the Allison Transmission brand name and remanufactured transmissions are sold under the ReTran brand name. Its on-highway products include 1000 Series, 2000 Series, 3000 Series, 4000 Series, eGen Flex Electric Hybrid Propulsion Solutions and eGen Power Fully Electric Propulsion Solutions. Its defense products include X200, 3040MX and X1100.

Contact

INDIANA
Indianapolis
1 Allison Way
+13172425000.0
http://www.allisontransmission.com/

IPO

2012-03-15

Employees

3 400

Officers

Chairman, President & CEO
Mr. David S. Graziosi
Senior VP, CFO & Treasurer
Mr. G. Frederick Bohley III
VP, General Counsel & Secretary
Mr. Eric C. Scroggins
Senior Vice President of Global Marketing, Sales & Service
Mr. John M. Coll
VP & Chief Procurement Officer
Ms. Teresa J. Van Niekerk
Vice President of Operations
Mr. Rafael Basso
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Chief Technology Officer
Mr. Michael Foster
VP of Information Systems and Services & Chief Information Officer
Mr. JK Pareek
Executive Director, Deputy General Counsel, Chief Compliance Officer, Treasury & IR
Ms. Jacalyn C. Bolles
Executive Director of Corporate Affairs & Communications
Melissa L. Sauer
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See Also

Discover More
What is the Intrinsic Value of one ALSN stock?

The intrinsic value of one ALSN stock under the Base Case scenario is 108 USD.

Is ALSN stock undervalued or overvalued?

Compared to the current market price of 76.24 USD, Allison Transmission Holdings Inc is Undervalued by 29%.