Shopify Inc
NYSE:SHOP
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one SHOP stock under the Base Case scenario is 26.74 USD. Compared to the current market price of 83.24 USD, Shopify Inc is Overvalued by 68%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
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Shopify Inc
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Fundamental Analysis
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Shopify Inc., founded in 2006, has emerged as a powerhouse platform for e-commerce, empowering entrepreneurs and businesses of all sizes to create their online storefronts with ease. With roots tracing back to a simple idea of selling snowboards online, Shopify has grown into a robust ecosystem that supports over 1.7 million businesses worldwide. The company's user-friendly interface, diverse range of customizable templates, and extensive app marketplace have democratized access to e-commerce, allowing anyone—from aspiring artisans to established brands—to sell their products across multiple channels, including social media and physical locations. As more consumers shift to online shopping,...
Shopify Inc., founded in 2006, has emerged as a powerhouse platform for e-commerce, empowering entrepreneurs and businesses of all sizes to create their online storefronts with ease. With roots tracing back to a simple idea of selling snowboards online, Shopify has grown into a robust ecosystem that supports over 1.7 million businesses worldwide. The company's user-friendly interface, diverse range of customizable templates, and extensive app marketplace have democratized access to e-commerce, allowing anyone—from aspiring artisans to established brands—to sell their products across multiple channels, including social media and physical locations. As more consumers shift to online shopping, Shopify has positioned itself advantageously to capture this growing market, demonstrating a strong commitment to innovation with continuous improvements like advanced analytics, payment solutions, and logistics support.
For investors, Shopify's impressive revenue growth and strategic partnerships underscore its potential for long-term value creation. The company reported over $5 billion in revenue in 2022, showcasing a consistent upward trajectory fueled by the burgeoning e-commerce landscape. Shopify’s subscription-based revenue model, characterized by recurring monthly fees from merchants, offers a stable income stream while additional revenue from transaction fees and premium services fuels growth. The firm has also made significant investments in artificial intelligence and machine learning to enhance user experience and optimize seller performance. With a clear vision for the future and an unwavering focus on empowering merchants, Shopify presents a compelling investment opportunity for those looking to capitalize on the ongoing digital transformation in retail.
Shopify Inc. operates several core business segments that are integral to its overall strategy and value proposition for merchants. Here are the primary segments:
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Subscription Solutions: This segment focuses on the revenue generated from merchants who subscribe to Shopify's various plans. The plans vary in features, pricing, and functionalities, catering to different business sizes, from small startups to large enterprises. Subscription solutions include access to the Shopify platform, online store creation, and other essential tools for e-commerce.
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Merchant Solutions: This segment comprises a wide array of services that merchants can utilize to enhance their online retail operations. Merchant Solutions includes payment processing (via Shopify Payments), shipping solutions, point-of-sale (POS) systems, and additional applications that help with inventory, marketing, and sales. This segment generates a significant portion of revenue through transaction fees and value-added services.
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Commerce Ecosystem: Shopify also positions itself as an ecosystem for commerce by offering an array of integrations with various apps and third-party services. This segment allows merchants to customize their stores and leverage tools that enhance their business capabilities, such as marketing tools, analytics, and customer relationship management (CRM) systems.
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Shopify Plus: This is a premium offering designed for high-growth and enterprise-level businesses. Shopify Plus provides a more customized and scalable platform with additional features, dedicated support, and the ability to handle larger volumes of transactions. It aims to serve larger merchants with complex needs.
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International Expansion: Although not a distinct segment, international markets represent an essential growth avenue for Shopify. The company has been actively expanding its presence in various countries, tailoring its offerings to fit local markets, which includes localized payment processing options and support.
Understanding these core business segments helps highlight how Shopify provides a comprehensive platform for online entrepreneurship, ensuring that it can meet a wide range of merchant needs while generating diversified revenue streams.
Shopify Inc. possesses several unique competitive advantages that set it apart from its rivals in the e-commerce platform space:
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Ease of Use: Shopify is renowned for its user-friendly interface, allowing users—regardless of technical expertise—to easily set up and manage their online stores. This accessibility attracts a broad range of users, from small entrepreneurs to larger businesses.
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Scalability: Shopify's platform is highly scalable, enabling businesses to start small and grow without the need to switch platforms. This capability appeals to a wide range of businesses, accommodating different sizes and needs.
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Comprehensive Ecosystem: Shopify offers a vast ecosystem of apps, themes, and integrations. This allows merchants to customize their stores with various tools for inventory management, marketing, customer service, and more, enhancing the overall user experience.
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Payment Processing: Shopify Payments simplifies the payment process, allowing merchants to accept various payment options seamlessly. The service reduces additional fees associated with third-party payment providers, streamlining the merchant’s financial processes.
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Strong Brand Recognition: Shopify has established a strong brand reputation, making it a trusted choice for e-commerce. This brand loyalty fosters a community of users who contribute to forums, reviews, and additional content, further enhancing its visibility.
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Global Reach: Shopify supports businesses in numerous countries, enabling them to sell in different currencies and offering localized features, helping merchants expand their reach to international markets.
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Partner and Affiliate Programs: Shopify has developed strong partnerships and affiliate programs, enhancing its distribution channels through collaboration with web developers, designers, and marketers who help promote the platform.
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Robust Support and Resources: The company offers extensive support resources, including 24/7 customer support, a rich library of guides, tutorials, and an active community forum. This resource availability significantly helps users in troubleshooting and optimizing their stores.
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Innovative Features: Shopify continuously innovates and introduces new features such as Shopify Plus for larger enterprises, advanced inventory management, integrated POS systems, and AR capabilities for product visualization, keeping it competitive in the tech-savvy market.
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Focus on D2C: Shopify has positioned itself as a preferred platform for direct-to-consumer sales, appealing to brands looking to establish a direct relationship with their customers, thus reducing reliance on third-party marketplaces.
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Data Analytics and Insights: Shopify provides merchants with powerful analytics tools that help track sales, customer behavior, and inventory management, enabling data-driven decision-making for better business outcomes.
These competitive advantages collectively enhance Shopify’s position in the e-commerce ecosystem, allowing it to retain and attract users while remaining ahead of many of its competitors.
Shopify Inc faces several risks and challenges in the near future, which can impact its growth and market position. Key areas of concern include:
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Increased Competition: The e-commerce landscape is becoming increasingly competitive, with large players like Amazon, Walmart, and emerging platforms offering similar services. This competition can lead to price wars, reduced market share, and pressure on margins.
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Market Saturation: As more businesses move online, there may be a saturation in the market for e-commerce tools. Shopify will need to continuously innovate to maintain its growth trajectory.
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Economic Conditions: Economic downturns or changes in consumer spending habits can significantly affect the volume of online transactions, which directly impacts Shopify’s revenues from transaction fees and subscription services.
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Dependency on Third-Party Apps and Integrations: Shopify relies heavily on third-party apps and integrations for its ecosystem. Any disruptions, changes in terms, or loss of popular apps could affect user experience and retention.
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Regulatory Risks: Increasing scrutiny on data privacy and cybersecurity regulations can pose challenges. Compliance with regulations like GDPR and CCPA requires constant updates to policies and systems, which can incur significant costs.
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Technological Changes: Rapid advancements in technology require continuous adaptation. Failure to stay ahead in technologies such as AI, machine learning, or augmented reality could hinder Shopify’s competitiveness.
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International Expansion Challenges: Expanding into international markets poses several risks, including cultural differences, currency fluctuations, and varying regulatory environments, which can complicate operations and profitability.
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Supply Chain Disruptions: As seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, global supply chain issues can severely affect e-commerce businesses. Shopify’s merchants are dependent on their suppliers, and disruptions can lead to inventory challenges and customer dissatisfaction.
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Merchant Dependence: Shopify’s growth is heavily tied to its merchants’ success. If its merchants face economic difficulties or fail to successfully sell their products, it may adversely affect Shopify’s finances.
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Stock Performance: Shopify is a publicly traded company, and fluctuations in stock price can affect its market perception and capital-raising capabilities. Negative market sentiment can lead to increased challenges in attracting new investors or acquiring talent.
To navigate these risks, Shopify will need to focus on innovation, customer satisfaction, and strategic partnerships while keeping a close eye on market dynamics and regulatory changes.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Shopify Inc
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Shopify Inc
Current Assets | 6.4B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 5B |
Receivables | 1.2B |
Other Current Assets | 188m |
Non-Current Assets | 4.9B |
Long-Term Investments | 4.3B |
PP&E | 144m |
Intangibles | 475m |
Other Non-Current Assets | 44m |
Current Liabilities | 874m |
Accounts Payable | 559m |
Accrued Liabilities | 17m |
Other Current Liabilities | 298m |
Non-Current Liabilities | 1.3B |
Long-Term Debt | 917m |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 383m |
Earnings Waterfall
Shopify Inc
Revenue
|
7.8B
USD
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Cost of Revenue
|
-3.8B
USD
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Gross Profit
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4B
USD
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Operating Expenses
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-3.1B
USD
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Operating Income
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822m
USD
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Other Expenses
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452m
USD
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Net Income
|
1.3B
USD
|
Free Cash Flow Analysis
Shopify Inc
USD | |
Free Cash Flow | USD |
Shopify reported a robust Q2 with revenue rising 25% year-over-year, excluding logistics. A key driver was the 22% growth in Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV), led by same-store sales and new merchant acquisitions, especially in Europe. Subscription Solutions revenue jumped 27%, driven by international growth and successful marketing initiatives. Operating income reached $241 million, 12% of revenue, marking the fourth consecutive profitable quarter. Looking ahead, Shopify anticipates Q3 revenue growth in the low to mid-20% range and a 50 basis points increase in gross margin, indicating a promising outlook for sustained growth and profitability.
What is Earnings Call?
SHOP Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Shopify Inc's profitability score is 49/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Shopify Inc's profitability score is 49/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
SHOP Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Shopify Inc's solvency score is 87/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Shopify Inc's solvency score is 87/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
SHOP Price Targets Summary
Shopify Inc
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for SHOP is 80.11 USD with a low forecast of 60.6 USD and a high forecast of 105 USD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for SHOP is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Profile
Country
Industry
Market Cap
Dividend Yield
Description
Shopify, Inc. operates a cloud-based commerce platform designed for small and medium-sized businesses. The company is headquartered in Ottawa, Ontario and currently employs 10,000 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2015-05-21. The merchants use the Company's software to run their business across all of their sales channels, including Web and mobile storefronts, physical retail locations, social media storefronts, and marketplaces. The Shopify platform provides merchants with a single view of their business and customers across all of their sales channels and enables them to manage products and inventory, process orders and payments, fulfill and ship orders, build customer relationships, source products, leverage analytics and reporting, and access financing, all from one integrated back office. The firm's principal place of business is the Internet. The firm's subsidiaries include Donde Fashion Inc. and Donde Mobile R&D Ltd. (Donde).
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Officers
The intrinsic value of one SHOP stock under the Base Case scenario is 26.74 USD.
Compared to the current market price of 83.24 USD, Shopify Inc is Overvalued by 68%.