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Timken Co
NYSE:TKR

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Timken Co Logo
Timken Co
NYSE:TKR
Watchlist
Price: 87.43 USD -0.81% Market Closed
Updated: Mar 29, 2024

Intrinsic Value

The Timken Co. engages in the engineering, manufacturing, and marketing of bearings and power transmission products. [ Read More ]

The intrinsic value of one TKR stock under the Base Case scenario is 84.09 USD. Compared to the current market price of 87.43 USD, Timken Co is Overvalued by 4%.

Key Points:
TKR Intrinsic Value
Base Case
84.09 USD
Overvaluation 4%
Intrinsic Value
Price
Worst Case
Base Case
Best Case

Valuation Backtest
Timken Co

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Fundamental Analysis

Mixed Earnings with Cautious Outlook
2023-Q4 Earnings Call

Mixed Earnings with Cautious Outlook

Revenue in the quarter was just under $1.1 billion, up 1% year-over-year, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.37, a 2% increase. However, organically, sales dropped roughly 5%, influenced by lower industrial sector volumes, despite 5% growth from acquisitions and currency translations contributing positively. The adjusted EBITDA margin improved by 70 basis points to 17.9%. Looking forward, the company expects full-year revenue to be down 2.5-4.5%, with organic revenue projected to fall by 6.5% at the midpoint, attributing to lower volumes offset by slightly higher pricing. No current demand level acceleration is foreseen. Adjusted earnings per share are anticipated to range from $5.80 to $6.20, implying an adjusted EBITDA margin between low to mid-18%. Free cash flow is expected to hit about $425 million, a 25% improvement from the prior year.

Financials

Balance Sheet Decomposition
Timken Co

Current Assets 2.6B
Cash & Short-Term Investments 418.9m
Receivables 816.2m
Other Current Assets 1.4B
Non-Current Assets 3.9B
PP&E 1.4B
Intangibles 2.4B
Other Non-Current Assets 74.2m
Current Liabilities 1.5B
Accounts Payable 367.2m
Accrued Liabilities 282.8m
Short-Term Debt 27.8m
Other Current Liabilities 793.5m
Non-Current Liabilities 2.5B
Long-Term Debt 1.8B
Other Non-Current Liabilities 697.7m
Efficiency

Earnings Waterfall
Timken Co

Revenue
4.8B USD
Cost of Revenue
-3.3B USD
Gross Profit
1.5B USD
Operating Expenses
-806.5m USD
Operating Income
702.6m USD
Other Expenses
-308.5m USD
Net Income
394.1m USD

Free Cash Flow Analysis
Timken Co

Last Value
3-Years Average
FCF Margin
Conversion Rate
History
Components
Chart
Table
What is Free Cash Flow?
Fundamental Scores

TKR Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence

Timken Co's profitability score is 56/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.

Positive Gross Profit
Positive 3-Year Average ROE
Positive Free Cash Flow
Positive 3-Years Revenue Growth
56/100
Profitability
Score

Timken Co's profitability score is 56/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.

TKR Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence

Timken Co's solvency score is 51/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.

Low D/E
Short-Term Solvency
Long-Term Solvency
Average Altman Z-Score
51/100
Solvency
Score

Timken Co's solvency score is 51/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.

Wall St
Price Targets

TKR Price Targets Summary
Timken Co

Wall Street analysts forecast TKR stock price to rise over the next 12 months.

According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TKR is 87.52 USD with a low forecast of 74.74 USD and a high forecast of 99.75 USD.

Lowest
Price Target
74.74 USD
15% Downside
Average
Price Target
87.52 USD
0% Upside
Highest
Price Target
99.75 USD
14% Upside
View Analyst Estimates
View Analyst Estimates

Competitive Landscape

Ownership

TKR Insider Trading
Buy and sell transactions by insiders

Cumulative Transactions Amount
Period Sold Bought Net
3 Months
6 Months
9 Months
12 Months
Why is insider trading important?

Shareholder Return

TKR Price
Timken Co

1M 1M
+4%
6M 6M
+19%
1Y 1Y
+10%
3Y 3Y
+12%
5Y 5Y
+118%
10Y 10Y
+157%
Annual Price Range
87.43
52w Low
68.55
52w High
93.86
Price Metrics
Average Annual Return 16.04%
Standard Deviation of Annual Returns 21.42%
Max Drawdown -58%
Shares Statistics
Market Capitalization 6.1B USD
Shares Outstanding 70 389 400
Percentage of Shares Shorted 2.24%

TKR Return Decomposition
Main factors of price return

What is price return decomposition?

Company Profile

Timken Co Logo
Timken Co

Country

United States of America

Industry

Machinery

Market Cap

6.1B USD

Dividend Yield

1.54%

Description

The Timken Co. engages in the engineering, manufacturing, and marketing of bearings and power transmission products. The company is headquartered in North Canton, Ohio and currently employs 18,029 full-time employees. Its segments include Mobile Industries and Process Industries. Its Mobile Industries segment serves original equipment manufacturer (OEM) customers that manufacture off-highway equipment for the agricultural, mining and construction markets; on-highway vehicles, including passenger cars, light trucks, and medium- and heavy-duty trucks; rail cars and locomotives; outdoor power equipment; rotorcraft and fixed-wing aircraft; and other mobile equipment. Its Process Industries segment serves OEM and customers in industries that place heavy demands on the fixed operating equipment they make or use in heavy and other general industrial sectors. The company offers various products under the brand names Timken, Philadelphia Gear, Drives, Cone Drive, Rollon, Lovejoy, Diamond, BEKA, and Groeneveld. The company serves various markets, such as automotive, rail, aerospace, mining, and construction.

Contact

OHIO
North Canton
4500 Mount Pleasant St NW
+12342623000.0
https://www.timken.com/

IPO

1922-01-01

Employees

18 029

Officers

President, CEO & Director
Mr. Richard G. Kyle
Executive VP, CFO & Principal Accounting Officer
Mr. Philip D. Fracassa
VP, General Counsel & Secretary
Mr. Hansal N. Patel
Executive VP & President of Industrial Motion
Mr. Christopher A. Coughlin
Executive VP & President of Engineered Bearings
Mr. Karl Andreas Roellgen
Vice President of Technology
Mr. Douglas H. Smith
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Director of Investor Relations
Mr. Neil Andrew Frohnapple
Vice President of Global Marketing
Mr. Michael J. Connors
Vice President of Human Resources
Ms. Natasha Pollock
President of India & Southeast Asia and MD of India
Mr. Sanjay Koul
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See Also

Discover More
What is the Intrinsic Value of one TKR stock?

The intrinsic value of one TKR stock under the Base Case scenario is 84.09 USD.

Is TKR stock undervalued or overvalued?

Compared to the current market price of 87.43 USD, Timken Co is Overvalued by 4%.