Timken Co
NYSE:TKR
Intrinsic Value
The Timken Co. engages in the engineering, manufacturing, and marketing of bearings and power transmission products. [ Read More ]
The intrinsic value of one TKR stock under the Base Case scenario is 84.09 USD. Compared to the current market price of 87.43 USD, Timken Co is Overvalued by 4%.
Valuation Backtest
Timken Co
Run backtest to discover the historical profit from buying and selling TKR stocks based on their intrinsic value.
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Fundamental Analysis
Mixed Earnings with Cautious Outlook
2023-Q4 Earnings Call
Revenue in the quarter was just under $1.1 billion, up 1% year-over-year, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.37, a 2% increase. However, organically, sales dropped roughly 5%, influenced by lower industrial sector volumes, despite 5% growth from acquisitions and currency translations contributing positively. The adjusted EBITDA margin improved by 70 basis points to 17.9%. Looking forward, the company expects full-year revenue to be down 2.5-4.5%, with organic revenue projected to fall by 6.5% at the midpoint, attributing to lower volumes offset by slightly higher pricing. No current demand level acceleration is foreseen. Adjusted earnings per share are anticipated to range from $5.80 to $6.20, implying an adjusted EBITDA margin between low to mid-18%. Free cash flow is expected to hit about $425 million, a 25% improvement from the prior year.
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Timken Co
Current Assets | 2.6B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 418.9m |
Receivables | 816.2m |
Other Current Assets | 1.4B |
Non-Current Assets | 3.9B |
PP&E | 1.4B |
Intangibles | 2.4B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 74.2m |
Current Liabilities | 1.5B |
Accounts Payable | 367.2m |
Accrued Liabilities | 282.8m |
Short-Term Debt | 27.8m |
Other Current Liabilities | 793.5m |
Non-Current Liabilities | 2.5B |
Long-Term Debt | 1.8B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 697.7m |
Earnings Waterfall
Timken Co
Revenue
|
4.8B
USD
|
Cost of Revenue
|
-3.3B
USD
|
Gross Profit
|
1.5B
USD
|
Operating Expenses
|
-806.5m
USD
|
Operating Income
|
702.6m
USD
|
Other Expenses
|
-308.5m
USD
|
Net Income
|
394.1m
USD
|
Free Cash Flow Analysis
Timken Co
What is Free Cash Flow?
TKR Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Timken Co's profitability score is 56/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Timken Co's profitability score is 56/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
TKR Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Timken Co's solvency score is 51/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Timken Co's solvency score is 51/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
TKR Price Targets Summary
Timken Co
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TKR is 87.52 USD with a low forecast of 74.74 USD and a high forecast of 99.75 USD.
Ownership
TKR Insider Trading
Buy and sell transactions by insiders
Period | Sold | Bought | Net |
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Shareholder Return
TKR Price
Timken Co
Average Annual Return | 16.04% |
Standard Deviation of Annual Returns | 21.42% |
Max Drawdown | -58% |
Market Capitalization | 6.1B USD |
Shares Outstanding | 70 389 400 |
Percentage of Shares Shorted | 2.24% |
Company Profile
Country
Industry
Market Cap
Dividend Yield
Description
The Timken Co. engages in the engineering, manufacturing, and marketing of bearings and power transmission products. The company is headquartered in North Canton, Ohio and currently employs 18,029 full-time employees. Its segments include Mobile Industries and Process Industries. Its Mobile Industries segment serves original equipment manufacturer (OEM) customers that manufacture off-highway equipment for the agricultural, mining and construction markets; on-highway vehicles, including passenger cars, light trucks, and medium- and heavy-duty trucks; rail cars and locomotives; outdoor power equipment; rotorcraft and fixed-wing aircraft; and other mobile equipment. Its Process Industries segment serves OEM and customers in industries that place heavy demands on the fixed operating equipment they make or use in heavy and other general industrial sectors. The company offers various products under the brand names Timken, Philadelphia Gear, Drives, Cone Drive, Rollon, Lovejoy, Diamond, BEKA, and Groeneveld. The company serves various markets, such as automotive, rail, aerospace, mining, and construction.
Contact
IPO
Employees
Officers
The intrinsic value of one TKR stock under the Base Case scenario is 84.09 USD.
Compared to the current market price of 87.43 USD, Timken Co is Overvalued by 4%.