Canadian Natural Resources Ltd
TSX:CNQ
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one CNQ stock under the Base Case scenario is 41.7 CAD. Compared to the current market price of 51.71 CAD, Canadian Natural Resources Ltd is Overvalued by 19%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
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Canadian Natural Resources Ltd
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Fundamental Analysis
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Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNRL) is a leading independent oil and natural gas producer based in Calgary, Alberta, recognized for its diverse portfolio that spans across the energy spectrum. With a commitment to sustainability and operational excellence, CNRL has carved out its niche in the industry by focusing on cost-efficient production methods and innovative technology. This approach allows the company to thrive even amidst fluctuating commodity prices, making it a reliable player in a dynamic market. Investors are drawn to CNRL not only for its robust asset base, which includes significant reserves in the oil sands and offshore projects, but also for its strategic focus on maximizi...
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNRL) is a leading independent oil and natural gas producer based in Calgary, Alberta, recognized for its diverse portfolio that spans across the energy spectrum. With a commitment to sustainability and operational excellence, CNRL has carved out its niche in the industry by focusing on cost-efficient production methods and innovative technology. This approach allows the company to thrive even amidst fluctuating commodity prices, making it a reliable player in a dynamic market. Investors are drawn to CNRL not only for its robust asset base, which includes significant reserves in the oil sands and offshore projects, but also for its strategic focus on maximizing shareholder value through disciplined capital investment and a flexible operational framework.
As a staple in the Canadian energy sector, Canadian Natural Resources prioritizes strong financial management and resilience. The company has consistently delivered attractive returns, underpinned by a commitment to returning cash to its shareholders via dividends and share repurchases. CNRL’s prudent financial strategy has enabled it to maintain a strong balance sheet, positioning itself well to navigate industry challenges and capitalize on growth opportunities. For investors seeking to enter the energy market, CNRL offers a compelling story of stability, innovation, and ongoing commitment to enhancing long-term value, making it a noteworthy consideration in any investment portfolio.
Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNRL) is one of the largest independent oil and natural gas producers in Canada. The company operates primarily in the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas. The core business segments of CNRL can be described as follows:
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Crude Oil and Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs): This segment involves the exploration and production of crude oil, which includes both conventional oil and heavy oil. CNRL is particularly known for its heavy oil production from the Alberta region. The company also produces natural gas liquids that are extracted during the natural gas processing phase.
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Natural Gas: CNRL’s natural gas segment includes the exploration, production, and marketing of natural gas. The company operates in various gas-rich regions in western Canada, focusing on both conventional and unconventional gas resources.
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Oil Sands Mining and Extraction: CNRL has significant investments in oil sands development, particularly in its Horizon Oil Sands project. The oil sands segment includes the extraction of bitumen through mining and in-situ methods, which is then upgraded to synthetic crude oil. This segment is a critical component of the company's overall production strategy.
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Thermal In-Situ: This includes the production of bitumen through thermal extraction methods, such as steam-assisted gravity drainage (SAGD). CNRL operates several thermal in-situ projects that allow for the extraction of heavy crude oil from deeper geological formations.
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Midstream Operations: While primarily focused on upstream activities, CNRL also engages in some midstream operations. This includes the transportation of crude oil and natural gas and the processing and storage of hydrocarbons.
These segments reflect CNRL's diversified approach to hydrocarbon production, allowing it to leverage various resources and technologies while managing risks associated with price fluctuations in oil and natural gas markets. The company’s strategic focus is on sustainable development and efficient production practices to enhance its economic and environmental performance.
Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNRL) has several unique competitive advantages that distinguish it from its rivals in the oil and gas industry. These advantages include:
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Diverse Asset Base: CNRL has a well-diversified portfolio that includes oil sands, conventional oil, natural gas, and strategic assets in North America. This diversity helps mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations in a single commodity.
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Strong Operational Efficiency: The company is known for its operational efficiency and low production costs. CNRL has invested in technologies and practices that enhance productivity, thereby improving its profit margins compared to competitors.
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Robust Balance Sheet: CNRL maintains a strong financial position with low debt levels relative to its peers. This allows for more flexibility in capital investments, acquisitions, and resilience during market downturns.
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Strategic Infrastructure Investments: The company has made significant investments in infrastructure, including pipelines and processing facilities. This reduces reliance on external transportation and processing, which can be a competitive advantage, particularly in times of market volatility.
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Strong Free Cash Flow Generation: CNRL has a history of generating strong free cash flow, which can be returned to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, enhancing shareholder value and providing financial security.
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Commitment to Sustainability and Innovation: The company invests in technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve environmental performance. This commitment to sustainability can enhance its reputation and appeal to socially conscious investors.
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Experience and Expertise: Founded in 1973, CNRL has extensive industry experience and a deep understanding of the Canadian oil and gas landscape, giving it an advantage in navigating regulatory and operational challenges.
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High-Quality Reserves: CNRL has access to high-quality reserves in Alberta and across Canada, particularly in its oil sands operations, which typically have lower breakeven costs and longer lifecycle attributes.
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Strong Investor Relations: The company has a solid track record of maintaining good relationships with investors, which can support its stock price and foster long-term investor loyalty.
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Proven Track Record of Growth: CNRL has consistently demonstrated its ability to grow through acquisitions and organic development, which can provide a competitive edge as it expands its operational footprint.
These competitive advantages position Canadian Natural Resources Ltd favorably within the oil and gas sector and help support its long-term growth trajectory and resilience against market fluctuations.
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd (CNRL) faces several risks and challenges in the near future, reflecting the complexities of the energy sector, regulatory landscapes, and market dynamics. Here are some key risks and challenges to consider:
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Commodity Price Volatility: As an oil and gas producer, CNRL is significantly exposed to fluctuations in commodity prices. Changes in global oil and gas prices can impact revenue, profitability, and investment decisions.
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Regulatory Changes: The Canadian energy sector is heavily regulated. Changes in government policies, such as carbon pricing, environmental regulations, and land use laws, can impact operations and profitability.
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Environmental and Social Governance (ESG) Concerns: Increasing scrutiny regarding sustainability and environmental impact poses reputational risks. CNRL must continue to invest in clean technology and practices to meet stakeholder expectations and regulatory requirements.
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Market Access Issues: Access to markets for transporting oil and gas is crucial. Pipeline capacity constraints, opposition to new pipeline projects, and geopolitical factors can hinder CNRL’s ability to reach key markets, affecting its competitiveness.
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Technological Disruption: Rapid advancements in renewable energy technologies and shifts towards decarbonization could impact demand for fossil fuels. CNRL needs to adapt to these trends to maintain its market position.
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Capital Allocation Decisions: The need to balance capital investments between traditional oil and gas projects and renewable energy initiatives poses strategic challenges. Misallocation could impact long-term growth potential.
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Labor Market Challenges: The energy sector faces labor shortages in skilled positions, which can affect project timelines and operational efficiency. Retaining and attracting talent will be a key challenge.
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Geopolitical Risks: Global geopolitical tensions can disrupt markets and supply chains. CNRL’s international operations may be affected by geopolitical events, sanctions, or instability in regions where it operates.
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Climate Change Mitigation Plans: Pressure from investors and regulators to transition towards cleaner energy sources will require significant investment and strategic shifts. CNRL must develop and communicate robust climate change mitigation plans.
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Economic Slowdown: A slowdown in the global economy can reduce demand for oil and gas, affecting prices and revenue for CNRL. The potential for recessionary conditions, both in Canada and globally, poses a risk.
By addressing these challenges proactively and strategically, Canadian Natural Resources Ltd can better position itself for sustainable growth in a changing energy landscape.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd
Current Assets | 7.4B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 915m |
Receivables | 3.7B |
Other Current Assets | 2.9B |
Non-Current Assets | 68.5B |
PP&E | 68B |
Other Non-Current Assets | 551m |
Current Liabilities | 8.4B |
Accounts Payable | 1.9B |
Accrued Liabilities | 4.7B |
Other Current Liabilities | 1.9B |
Non-Current Liabilities | 28B |
Long-Term Debt | 10.6B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 17.4B |
Earnings Waterfall
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd
Revenue
|
36.7B
CAD
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Cost of Revenue
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-17.8B
CAD
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Gross Profit
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18.9B
CAD
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Operating Expenses
|
-8.3B
CAD
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Operating Income
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10.7B
CAD
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Other Expenses
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-3B
CAD
|
Net Income
|
7.7B
CAD
|
Free Cash Flow Analysis
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd
CAD | |
Free Cash Flow | CAD |
Canadian Natural achieved a remarkable second quarter in 2024, with production reaching 1.29 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, an 8% rise year-over-year. The company demonstrated strong performance across its portfolio, driven by optimized operations and early completion of maintenance at key sites. Thermal assets outperformed, and significant milestones were reached at Horizon, including the production of the 1 billionth barrel of bitumen. Financially, Canadian Natural generated $3.6 billion in adjusted funds flow and $1.9 billion in net earnings, returning the same amount to shareholders. Guidance for natural gas production remains at 2.12-2.23 Bcf per day.
What is Earnings Call?
CNQ Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd's profitability score is 67/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd's profitability score is 67/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
CNQ Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd's solvency score is 60/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd's solvency score is 60/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
CNQ Price Targets Summary
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CNQ is 56.34 CAD with a low forecast of 44.44 CAD and a high forecast of 65.1 CAD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for CNQ is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Profile
Country
Industry
Market Cap
Dividend Yield
Description
Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. is an oil and natural gas production company, which engages in the exploration, development, marketing, and production of crude oil and natural gas. The company is headquartered in Calgary, Alberta and currently employs 9,735 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2000-07-31. The firm's exploration and production operations are focused in North America, mainly in Western Canada; the United Kingdom (UK) portion of the North Sea; and Cote d'Ivoire and South Africa in Offshore Africa. The Company’s exploration and production activities are conducted in three geographic segments: North America, North Sea and Offshore Africa. The Oil Sands Mining and Upgrading segment produces synthetic crude oil through bitumen mining and upgrading operations at Horizon Oil Sands and through its direct and indirect interest in Athabasca Oil Sands Project. Within Western Canada, in the Midstream and Refining segment, the Company's activities include pipeline operations, an electricity co-generation system and an investment in the North West Redwater Partnership, a general partnership formed to upgrade and refine bitumen in the Province of Alberta.
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The intrinsic value of one CNQ stock under the Base Case scenario is 41.7 CAD.
Compared to the current market price of 51.71 CAD, Canadian Natural Resources Ltd is Overvalued by 19%.