Dream Impact Trust

TSX:MPCT.UN

Earnings Call Transcript

[Operator]

Welcome to the Dream Impact Trust Third Quarter 2023 Results Conference Call for Wednesday, November 8, 2023. [Operator Instructions], and the conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]. During this call, management of Dream Impact Trust may make statements containing forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable securities legislation. Forward-looking information is based on a number of assumptions and is subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond Dream Impact Trust control that could cause actual results to differ materially from those that are disclosed in or implied by such forward-looking information.

Additional information about these assumptions and risks and uncertainties is contained in Dream Impact Trust filings with securities regulators, including its latest annual information form and MD&A. These filings are also available on Dream Impact Trust's website at www.dreamimpacttrust.ca. Your host for today will be Mr. Michael Cooper, Portfolio Manager of Dream Impact Trust. Mr. Cooper, please proceed.

[Michael Cooper, executive]

Thank you very much. And I'd like to welcome everybody to the third quarter conference call for Dream Impact. First, I want to talk a little bit about the progress we're making with the operations. And then I'd like to talk a little bit about how the market's changed. And then I want to show you a little bit about how we look at the business and what we're doing to adapt to the changing market.

So firstly, throughout our portfolio, we have incredible assets, and they have great opportunities. We're very excited about it. We're making lots of progress. Finishing buildings and financing in place to start a couple of others and getting zoning done. So a lot of things are going according to plan. Examples are Maple, which is Block 8 at West Don Lands. It's the 751 units, and we're now leasing it out, and it's going quite well. In Gatineau, we also finished where we Block 11 out of Aalto II. We're about 1/4 leased. We're ahead of schedule, and we're getting rents that we had hoped for. So that's working out great. We expect that the new Quayside Condo at -- on the Ontario side in Zibi we'll start to market at this -- probably next month. So it's great to see those projects complete with construction and getting on to occupancy. And they're pretty much on budget and the values are great. So we're pleased with that.

With Quayside we've been working through the city to get this on and it looks like we should have this only in place by the first half of next year. And that will cement the value of a great site. Victory Silos has its zoning. Canary West has its zoning. So we really get to a point where most of our assets are zoned, and that's a great accomplishment.

Our apartments that are in operation are proceeding very well, and we have increasing occupancy and rents consistently, and they're doing a lot of what we expected. So within the 4 quarters of a piece of paper, things are going well. In the last 6 months, interest rates went -- the 10-year bond went from 2.5% to 4.2%, while the 30-day number went up by only 10%. So the 30-day or the overnight rate went up 10% and the long rate went up about 60% or 70%. And I think that's really created a shiver within the real estate community, and a lot of projects are being delayed and people are thinking about their portfolios or things that really slowed down. On top of that, there was another word that started, which is just another level of risk. So I think what we're seeing in real estate is things are getting pretty frozen. And then all of a sudden, last week, we saw that interest rates came up 50 basis points. So in March of this year, we wanted to start LeBreton library parcel, but the financing that we had with CMHC, it wasn't a project that works. So over the last 6 months, we've been working with CMHC and others to make the project a better project than on September 18, the Federal Government levied GST in the province recently agreed to it as well. That made a project very desirable. And then from September 18, interest rates went from about $3.55 to $4.20 and the increase in interest rates offset the GST in terms of capital. So that didn't look good. But with the decline in the last couple of weeks, the project is getting close to what we had hoped it would be, and we're working with CMHC to finalize the documents. And hopefully, we'll be able to get all of that done, and have 10-year debt at attractive rate and have the whole project set up to proceed by the end of January.

So what I'm trying to get at is the viability of projects right now are incredibly sensitive to the interest rates. And interest rates are moving around quite a bit. So people have moved and people decisions are going to vary quite a bit depending on what happens with the 10-year bond over the next while. So I think that's really been a big push. The interest rate, it affects our ability to achieve the returns we think, we need to proceed as a developer. But we're also seeing that the interest rates are affecting the demand for housing. Because especially, we think the cost of the houses this are very expensive, still the price expensive and the cost of carrying is much higher than it used to be.

If I run it, while we talk about a housing crisis that we're seeing a decline in housing starts. And it seems at this intuitively anyways, something is going to give so that housing can be created to meet the needs of the Canadian population. Tomorrow, I'm speaking to a subcommittee of the Ministry of Finance and the House of Commons about housing, there's 5 other deputies speaking, and it's clear that the governments are very focused on how do we create more supply. So I think 1 way or another, that will work out well for us.

But when I look at the business as it is today, we basically have about a little over $600 million of income properties. And we have another $365 million properties that are very far advanced that are going to become income properties or the Gehry, which is 70% tender and 85% sold. So we've got about $1 billion of assets that our income properties are very advanced developments. They've got about 33% equity, 67% debt at the current carrying value, and they have very little requirements for new equity. They're a very desirable portfolio, and very valuable. And I think the highest value, most likely is to continue holding them and like finishing the products and holding them. But we're open-minded how we deal with them in the future, but it's pretty amazing to have $1 billion of assets in this company that don't require much further equity and are such high value.

In addition to that, we have about $250 million invested in Zibi and Brightwater, which are 2 master planned communities. They've got about 60% debt and 40% equity. And the nice thing about that is they consist in the case of Zibi, we probably have about another 30 development blocks and we can choose to sell individual blocks to third parties. We can build them out at about $60 million to $100 million each one or we can partner with people. So that's got a lot of flexibility. Brightwater it is a project, 72 acres of Lake Ontario, and the teams have done an incredible job with our partners. But right now, the demand is low. So it's taking longer, but that's $0.25 billion of great properties with 40% equity.

Aside from that, we have some landholdings. And the landholders are also about $250 million, but most of that is Victory Silos and the Gehry project is over $200 million.. And those are great sites. And it's a little bit more difficult because it's hard to start these projects. But the carry on them isn't too bad, so I think as we get through the next 12 or 24 months that they should turn around, and then we have some passive investments that, obviously, we're going to want to liquidate and get the cash out and concentrate on the $1 billion of revenue properties we have further in the master planned communities for $0.25 billion and advancing the $0.25 billion of land holdings.

So I think we've got a good plan. The market conditions are not in our favor. We're very disappointed in the stock price, especially we have such good assets. So we're going to be mining the entire portfolio to see where we can bring in partners for projects, maybe sell some assets and generate more liquidity. And just kind of distill the business to get to an incredible portfolio of assets that are self-sustaining over the long term. Meaghan?

[Meaghan Peloso, executive]

Thank you, Michael. Good morning, everyone. In the third quarter, the Trust recognized a net loss of $12.4 million compared to net income of $0.3 million in the prior year. Broadly speaking, the fluctuation year-over-year was attributable to fair value write-downs in the period, although there are a number of puts and takes, which I'll describe further on a segmented basis.

As it relates to our Development segment, in the period, the segment reported net income of $3.1 million, up slightly from prior year, most of current quarter earnings related to a fair value gain on Maple House, which we previously referred to as West Don Lands Block 8. Over the summer, we were extremely pleased to commence leasing at Maple House, which is a 770-unit rental building, of which 1/3 of the units are dedicated as affordable. The site is located in Downtown Toronto adjacent to the Distillery Canary District. As of November 6, nearly 1/3 of units released and we expect to realize additional fair value gains on this asset over the next 16 to 18 months as the building stabilizes.

As it relates to our Ottawa portfolio, we recognize the fair value gain in the third quarter primarily related to Aalto II, our second multifamily rental building at Zibi, which also commenced leasing in the period. Following shortly behind next quarter, will be leaving commencement for Common at Zibi, which is a 207 unit rental building, which will offer a mix of unit typologies.

We're very pleased with the momentum we are gaining across our multi-family portfolio as we continue to grow our recurring income segment and further diversify our asset composition. Once stabilized, we expect Maple House also Aalto II and Common at Zibi, to add $200 million a share to the Trust recurring income segment assets. In the third quarter, the Development segment recognized income related to condo occupancies at Brightwater I. This is the vertical block which is available to occupy with roughly half being as occupying in the period and the remainder to follow in the fourth quarter. Sales for the building initially launched in late 2020.

Now as it relates to our Credit Income segment, NOI for commercial properties was $2.7 million in the quarter, down slightly from the prior year due to higher OpEx from assets within equity accounted investments combined with lower revenues on an income property currently under renovation. NOI from the multifamily rental portfolio was $1.5 million in the period, up from $1.3 million in the comparative period due to increased tenant occupancy and the timing of completion at Aalto Suites at Zibi. Total segmented earnings from recurring income assets with a loss of $15.6 million compared to net income of $1.2 million in the prior year. Now the fluctuation was driven by fair value adjustments on the Trust office portfolio due to increases in discount rate assumptions as well as higher interest expense in the current period.

As of September 30, the Trust had $28.6 million in available liquidity, which includes cash on hand and availability under the corporate credit facility. We've previously given guidance on our expected capital needs for development projects over the next 18-month period. Based on current time lines and market conditions, we anticipate capital contributions could be anywhere between $25 million to $30 million. However, I want to stress that the lion's share of the spend is subject to dependent on advancing new development blocks across our projects. Should market conditions worsen or alternative liquidity needs arise, we could defer construction starts and spend. It's also worth noting that for the Trust advanced development projects, including Maple House, Cherry House and Forma among others, we do not anticipate additional equity needs to complete these buildings as they are fully funded through construction level financing, which should have a significant impact on our leverage. Said differently, to add the additional $200 million of stabilized income properties, which I referred to earlier, no additional cash is needed.

Overall leverage for the Trust increased slightly from 36.1% last quarter to 37% as of September 30 or 65.5%, including project level debt. Nearly 1/3 of the Trust debt profile is considered government affiliated, which we consider to be less risky than dimensional debt has been often times to provide for higher LTVs, lower interest rates and longer amortization period. As of period end, 2/3 of the trust debt was fixed at a weighted average interest rate of 4.2%. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Michael.

[Michael Cooper, executive]

Thank you, Meaghan, and we'd be happy to answer your questions.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions]. Our first question is from Sairam Srinivas with Cormark Securities.

[Sairam Srinivas, analyst]

Thanks for the color Michael and Meaghan and congratulations on the Maple. Just -- Michael, if you could just only give us some more color on the 3,000 additional suites that you see kind of coming into the pipeline by '25?

[Michael Cooper, executive]

Sorry, is that the pipeline of completed projects.

[Sairam Srinivas, analyst]

No, the incremental 3,000 units that you see you can probably add between now and '25, thanks to the GST announcement?

[Meaghan Peloso, executive]

So that would include some of our active projects that are all within side, you're looking at both Section 1.4, our development pipeline details, that would include projects such as LeBreton and some future phases at Zibi, among others. But those would be the most significant ones -- part of that.

[Sairam Srinivas, analyst]

Okay. Yes. I was -- I interpreted as additional units, but I guess that's fine. Just looking at other 2 comments on Maple, how are you seeing the underwritten rents compared to what you're seeing in terms of leasing?

[Michael Cooper, executive]

Look, when we started the building, it was 2018, we did a budget that we showed rental increases, maybe average 3% or 4% per year. And as soon as COVID hit rent went down a lot, it took until about October 2022 before the rents we were seeing in the market caught up to 2019 untrended rents. And since then, ironically, we're just slightly ahead now. So it's been anything, but it turns out our estimates were fine, but nothing happens like our estimates for the 5 years in between.

[Sairam Srinivas, analyst]

Perfect. That sounds good. And Michael, in terms of -- when you look at projects and you think about properties that you would like to probably sell in terms of Condo developments or the ones you'd like to own, how is the decision here? And what's the thought process behind it in terms of understanding the capital allocation on such types?

[Michael Cooper, executive]

Yes, I think it's quite a bit different now from what it used to be, because I think that before we were looking for whether we should build a condo or apartment. Now what we're seeing market-wide is, are the returns high enough to justify building and then you look at whether a condo or apartment makes sense. So what we're seeing at the minute is -- I'd say the minute because it's -- everything is so sensitive to interest rates on apartments.

But right now, with the HST, that is a benefit for apartments, and the softer condo market is a negative for condos. So whether it's equal or not, it definitely is swinging towards choosing apartments over condos. But it depends on each project and how it's funded. But I think that what the government is doing with the RCFI financing, what it means is you have to have your equity in it first, but you get all the debt you need to finish the project fixed for 10 years, so you don't take any interest rate risk for when you complete your project and get it stabilized. So that makes an apartment decision quite good.

On the condo, you don't have to spend that much money before you can go to the market and test it to see how interested customers are at buying units at a certain price. So just recently on the Lake Front, there was a very successful launch at about $1,650 a square foot. And that was great to see. There was another one around Rosedale, that was a large project that's pretty good. Other ones aren't doing that well. So it's really hit and miss. So I think you got something relatively special not just a commodity type condo. But what's happened is everything is harder to do. But if you hit it right, you can build both condos and apartments in this market, but probably less so than you would have expected to, but not as much.

[Sairam Srinivas, analyst]

That's actually really good color, Michael. And just -- I know you mentioned the RCFI financing. Does that actually makes some markets for purpose-built rentals is more attractive related to others in terms of how we can actually make the math work over there?

[Michael Cooper, executive]

It's interesting that you say that because we're building through the Dream Group apartments in Western Canada, and they're rents are very well. It's cheaper to build the rents are good. Yield on cost is good. We're finding Ottawa is working okay. But right now, Toronto is so complicated. It's been a harder market to make work. But like literally 20 basis points on a 10-year bond, and there's lots of opportunities to build again.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Our next question is from David Chrystal with Echelon.

[David Chrystal, analyst]

Just in terms of kind of crystallizing, demonstrating value, are you in any kind of advanced discussions with respect to either wholesale dispositions or partial dispositions of anything with potential partners?

[Michael Cooper, executive]

It's a great question, and I don't know precisely what you mean by advanced. We have had, over the last 3 months, effectively introductions to various groups that could invest in projects. And we're talking to a lot of different groups right now. And we are looking at selling off individual properties to raise some capital as well for properties that we don't think really enhance the value or quality of our portfolio. But if you're asking the other specific transactions that we want to foreshadow, there is not.

[David Chrystal, analyst]

And would any of those be existing partners looking to up their stake in current projects? Or would those be kind of new third-party arms link entities?

[Michael Cooper, executive]

You know what? Do you think it's A or B. I think the answer is it could be complete third party, as you say, but it could also be people who have invested with us in other projects that might invest with us on the next project. So we're dealing with both people we never dealt with before and people we've dealt with before on other things.

[David Chrystal, analyst]

Okay. Good color. And then it sounds from your commentary that you like the various development projects you have and you'd be leaning more towards crystallizing value in more kind of passive holdings. Is that fair to say you'd be looking at kind of disposing of income properties rather than developments?

[Michael Cooper, executive]

I'm glad you asked that because I want to be clear. When we say passive investments, we think about money we've invested in third-party developers or with third parties. So we want to get that money back to the best that we can. So those are the passive investments I was referring to. I think that maybe on some of the commercial property, we'd love to call the portfolio a bit.

On the development, we would be happy to bring partners in. So at Zibi, if we bring in third-party money to partner with us, it would mean that the Impact Trust would not need very much money to participate in the next building, let's say, at the same time that the land loan gets paid down and everything gets safer and safer. So we had a 50% partner for every new building in Zibi that would free up a lot of liquidity and reduce risk in the business, such as an example of the kind of thing we're looking at.

[David Chrystal, analyst]

Okay, fair. And maybe just building on that answer. How much incremental corporate level equity or cash is required to advance what you have in active development over the next couple of years?

[Michael Cooper, executive]

So again, I'm going to thank you for that question because when we do a business plan, we have a static business plan, and it assumes a lot of starts to developments. I think over the next 4 years, we're thinking let's say, in our business plan, maybe we need $100 million. But if we decide not to proceed with things, we need under $20 million. So how much money we need is based on how many choices we make. So if we bring in partners, we could see not needing any of that money. So it's really up to us to make the decisions. And I think embedded in answers you get from everybody in our company from each of the companies is they refer to a corporate model that includes a tremendous number of decisions to start new things or make acquisitions, but we don't have to do that. So there isn't a lot of new money that's required for any of these properties or developments.

[David Chrystal, analyst]

Okay. So the kind of base case is $20 million of new cash if you don't do anything, if you don't sell anything, if you don't partner on anything, that's the kind of base case. But obviously, things are very fluid.

[Michael Cooper, executive]

Yes. I think -- I mean, that's my numbers is that it's probably about $20 million, which has to do with capital being invested in some of the apartment buildings, a little bit of leasing cost on the commercial buildings. And honestly, and a little bit of interest, but most of the predevelopment has debt that includes interest servicing.

[David Chrystal, analyst]

Okay. Fair. And Meaghan, maybe a last housekeeping item for me, on the multi-family equity accounted, if I look at the expenses quarter-over-quarter, there was a pretty big jump. I believe from your disclosure that there are no new developments added into that bucket yet, they're still carried as developments until the fourth quarter. Is there any reason for that sequential jump? Or is it just timing of expenses or anything to read through going forward there?

[Meaghan Peloso, executive]

Yes. There's a little bit of timing here. I think for NOI as a percentage for leasing out. So probably it's not really material. It just stays out as we're building up the portfolio and that NOI contribution. So we're going to look to try and include some new disclosures going forward, so that it's more transparent from a same-property comparison period-over-period. So I'd say a little bit of onetime noise, which should even out going forward.

[Operator]

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Mr.Cooper for closing remarks.

[Michael Cooper, executive]

Well, I would love to thank everybody for continuing to participate in these calls. If you have any questions, please reach out to Stephen, Meaghan or myself. And we'll keep you updated on how the changes in the economy, in fact, what we're doing, but it's a very volatile time right now.

So once again, thank you, and we're looking forward to reporting to you after year-end.