Kimberly-Clark de Mexico SAB de CV

BMV:KIMBERA

Q3-2025 Earnings Call

[Operator]

Good day, everyone, and welcome to Kimberly-Clark de México Third Quarter 2025 Results. [Operator Instructions] Please note this call is being recorded, and I will be standing by. It is now my pleasure to turn the conference over to CEO, Pablo González. Please go ahead.

[Pablo Roberto González Guajardo, executive]

Hello, everyone. I hope you're doing well, and thanks for participating on the call. We'll go straight to results, and then we'll make some brief comments about the quarter and our expectations going forward. Xavier?

[Xavier Cortés Lascurain, executive]

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Results for the quarter were better, with net sales growing and gross and operating profits recovering. During the quarter, our sales were MXN 13.4 billion, a 2% increase versus last year. Hard rolled sales impacted total volume, which was flat and price/mix was up 2%. Consumer Products grew 5%, 1% volume and 4% price/mix, while Away from Home remained flat. Exports were down 15%, impacted by a 32% decrease in hard rolled sales, while finished products grew 7%. Cost of goods sold increased 3%. Against last year, SAM, resins and virgin fibers were favorable. Recycled fibers were mixed, while fluff compared negatively. The FX was slightly lower, averaging 1% less.

During the quarter, our cost of goods sold reflected the higher prices of raw materials from prior months and very significantly, the much higher FX, including the hedges as those trickled down the inventory layers. Our cost reduction program once again had very good results and yielded approximately MXN 500 million of savings in the quarter. These savings are mainly at the cost of goods sold level and are generated by sourcing, materials improvement and process efficiencies.

Gross profit was flat and margin was 38.7% for the quarter. SG&A expenses were 4% higher year-over-year and as a percentage of sales, were up 30 basis points as we continue to invest behind our brands. Operating profit decreased 4% and the operating margin was 21.3%. We generated MXN 3.4 billion of EBITDA, a 3% decrease, but within our long-term margin range at 25%.

As mentioned, the benefits of better raw material prices and a stronger peso take time to show up on the actual cost of goods sold, due not only to inventories, but also to contract transit time and particularly in this case, the currency hedges. Having said that, our gross margin did improve 50 basis points sequentially from the second quarter to the third quarter. That improvement does not go down to the operating profit or EBITDA level because the SG&A remained constant and was, therefore, higher as a percentage of sales because the third quarter sales are traditionally lower than the second quarter sales.

Cost of financing was MXN 404 million in the third quarter compared to MXN 287 million in the same period last year. Net interest expense was higher at MXN 401 million versus MXN 290 million last year, despite our lower gross debt because we earned less on our cash investments. During the quarter, we had a MXN 3 million FX loss, which compares to a MXN 4 million gain last year.

Net income for the quarter was MXN 1.7 billion with earnings per share of [ MXN 0.56. ] We maintain a very strong and healthy balance sheet. Cash position as of September 30 was MXN 11 billion. We have no debt maturing for the rest of the year and maturities for the coming years are very comfortable. Net debt-to-EBITDA ratio is 1x and EBITDA to net interest coverage is 10x.

Over the last 12 months, we have repurchased close to 50 million shares, around 1.5% of shares outstanding, which brings the total payout to shareholders to approximately 7%. And with that, I turn it back to Pablo.

[Pablo Roberto González Guajardo, executive]

So we continue to operate against a soft consumer backdrop, but we managed to increase sales and post EBITDA margin within the target range. Growth in Consumer Products was significantly better supported by innovations and commercial initiatives, together with a strategic decision to reduce spending during the heavy summer promotional season to protect the value of our brands as well as reduce the negative price effects. Volume was slightly ahead of last year, an important improvement, but consumers remain stretched and cautious given the increased uncertainty, job growth deceleration, remittances slowdown and overall lack of economic growth.

We see no significant catalyst for this to change in the short term and are strengthening strategies accordingly. Still more relevant and differentiated innovation, more effective engagement with consumers efficient execution hand-in-hand with our clients, and importantly, relentless focus on our most important opportunities by category, channel and brands will guide all our actions.

In a market that's not growing much, gaining share and playing in areas where we haven't participated at least not aggressively, will be key to accelerate our growth. We look forward to sharing more details on the strategies as we get into 2026. The same holds true for Away from Home business, and we expect exports of finished products to continue to grow and accelerate in the coming years, behind a concerted effort with our partner, Kimberly-Clark Corporation.

With respect to costs, we have yet to see the full effect of lower input prices on results and lower sequential volumes typical of the third quarter meant we had weaker operating leverage. Despite these headwinds, margins remain strong. As we get into the final stretch of the year and particularly into next year, we will see lower costs reflected in our numbers.

We expect lower pulp prices, stable recycled fibers, lower resins and superabsorbent materials plus a stronger peso to be tailwinds going forward. In summary, our results continue to improve. And despite an expected continued weak consumer environment, we're executing strategies that will translate into stronger results in 2026 and the years to come. With that, let's turn to your questions.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] We'll take our first question from Ben Theurer with Barclays.

[Benjamin Theurer, analyst]

Congrats on the results despite the challenging environment. So I wanted to follow up a little bit on just the consumer sentiment and what you've been seeing across the different categories. So maybe help us understand and kind of like getting a bit closer into that 4% price/mix change. How are you able to kind of like implement that and at the same time, actually get about a 1% volume growth, just given the consumer is weak, but it felt like a very good execution on price mix with volume growth. So that would be my first question.

[Pablo Roberto González Guajardo, executive]

Sure, thanks for the question. Look, as I mentioned, we see a stretched consumer. And this is [ not news of ] uncertainty. And as I mentioned, job growth has decelerated, remittances have slowed down. I mean overall, the economy is pretty slow and consumers' sentiment is not at its best, if you will. So consumers are being very careful in how they are spending. We do see a fork, if you will, with consumers that continue to spend on premium products, but there are those who are trending down from value to economy products, not at a very marked rate, but there's certainly something happening there given the -- how the consumer is stretched. So the way we were able to put all of this together -- and let me say, by the way, the growth in our categories is pretty muted. Some of them, the categories that don't have such high penetration like kitchen towels and others are growing at higher rates. But even those the rates have slowed down a little bit. And the more, if you will, mature categories are flat or slightly growing when it comes to volume. So what we did is, one, Remember, we decided not to play as aggressively on the summer promotional season. Because what we were seeing over the past couple of years is that when you did that, the price would take a hit not only within the promotional season, but then beyond that, because consumers ended up with some inventory on their hands. So then it was a little harder to move volumes forth. So we were very careful on how we manage that, and I think we were successful in doing so. Plus the fact that we are through our revenue management -- revenue growth management capabilities found certain instances where we could adjust pricing and move forth. So that's how we were able to keep prices going and then volume really helped because of innovation and all of our commercial activities during the third quarter. So it was really a combination of executing on price and innovations that allowed us to put together both growth in price and for the first quarter in the year, growth in volume.

[Benjamin Theurer, analyst]

Okay. And then just one quick follow-up. You've called out the softer hard roll sales volume. Was there a technical issue? Is it a demand issue on the export side? What's been driving that?

[Pablo Roberto González Guajardo, executive]

Really, I think what's happening there is that there's a lot of supply of hard rolls in the U.S., a combination of companies with excess capacity sending it to the U.S. and then maybe a little bit of companies buying before some of the tariffs came into effect. So there's paper out there that I think the system is going through. And hopefully, that will become more normalized, if you will, in the fourth quarter, certainly, I think by the first quarter of next year. But overall, just oversupply in the market of hard rolls in the U.S.

[Operator]

We will move next with Bob Ford with Bank of America.

[Robert Ford, analyst]

Pablo, I also was impressed by the growth in consumer given your intent to stay away from some of the summer promotions. Can you give some examples maybe of some of the more successful innovation and execution of efforts that are enabling you to improve pricing and take share? And with respect to the export mix between hard rolls and finished products, can you give us a sense both in volume and value in terms of the breakdown of those exports? And then how should we think about current capacity utilization rates for both pulp and finished product?

[Pablo Roberto González Guajardo, executive]

Thanks, Bob. Thanks for your question. Yes. Look, I mean, when it comes to innovation, as I mentioned earlier in the year, we have strong innovations for all of our categories throughout the year. And by the way, we have a very, very strong pipeline for the coming years. So we're very excited about that. And a couple of particular examples are on the diaper front, where we pretty much improved on every single tier of our offerings. And when you take a look at our shares, we're -- even though the categories, as I said, pretty flat, we're gaining share in pretty much all of the channels given the -- all of the channels and all of the tiers, given the innovations that we were able to put into the market. And again, those have to do with better observancy core, better fit, better stretch, better softness. So depending on the tier, again, we improved every single one of them, and that's a category where we see our shares improving nicely. Also, for example, in bathroom tissue in the premium tier, where we've introduced a couple of new features and new sub-brands under Kleenex,

Cottonelle, and we're absolutely convinced we have the best product in market and products that can compete with products anywhere in the world. and they've been very, very well received by consumers. And as well, we also made some innovations to our economic product, particularly Vogue in the -- or [ Vogue ] in the wholesale channel, and we've been able to gain ground with that product consistently and significantly. So again, innovation at the core of everything we do and very, very excited with what we see for the coming years when it comes to innovation. With respect to the breakdown of our exports, I mean, hard roll sales represent 46% of the sales and finished product, 54%. And hard rolls, as I mentioned, hopefully, volumes will stabilize here in the coming quarters, and we expect that to continue to be -- hopefully, be a tailwind and if not, certainly not a headwind going forward. And on the finished product, we're excited. I mean we've had a couple of meetings with our partner, and we're looking at opportunities in the coming years to further integrate our supply chain. We've done a good job here in the past couple of years, but many more things that we can do, and we're working very closely together to make that happen, and we're excited with the opportunities we see for it. And as we move and are able to turn more of our capacity into finished product, then certainly, our hard roll sales will decline accordingly because, as you know, what we do is our excess capacity is what we turn into hard rolled sales and sell outside. So as this plans with our partner materialize, a little by little, we'll start to see lower hard roll sales, but finished product sales increase hopefully significantly.

[Robert Ford, analyst]

And that was actually the idea behind the question on capacity utilization is we agree. We see this massive opportunity in exports of finished product. And as a result, we're a little curious in terms of where you are right now in terms of capacity utilization, both for pulp? And then how should we think about where you are today on finished product and we can make some estimates in terms of what you need to add.

[Pablo Roberto González Guajardo, executive]

Yes. And it's a great question, Bob, and we -- let me put it this way. We have enough capacity to grow on finished products aggressively together with our partner in the coming years. And not only what we're producing right now, but we're putting plans together so that we can get more throughput through our equipment or through our machines. So we will be able to support growth with them. And I think we will still continue to be able to put a decent amount of hard roll sales out there in the U.S. So I think the combination over the coming years will certainly be a support our growth and support our margins going forward.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Alejandro Fuchs with Itau.

[Alejandro Fuchs, analyst]

I have 2 very quick ones. Pablo, maybe I want to see if you can discuss a little bit about competition, right? How do you see competition today in Mexico, given the increase in price and sales mix, are maybe the competitors following? Are they being more aggressive promotionally? And if you can also discuss maybe your expectations into next year, hopefully, with a better consumer environment in the country. Maybe you can talk us about what do you expect going forward?

[Pablo Roberto González Guajardo, executive]

Sure, Alejandro. Look, when it comes to competition, I mean, you know our categories have always been very competitive. And we maybe are seeing a little bit more from some participants, not all when it comes to their promotional aggressiveness. I wouldn't say it's something that it's radically different, but a little bit more as, again, the pie is not growing, some are losing share. So they're trying to recoup some of that and are being a little bit more aggressive on it. But not -- again, not something that it's too surprising or too different from other instances. And the fact also that our retailers are, one, continuing to keep inventories and overall working capital under control, they're putting a lot of pressure on that. And two, trying to keep prices, it seems to me a little bit more consistent. I mean that helps in terms of the aggressiveness of promotions not being even more so that it could have been in other instances when the economy is not growing. So a little bit more, but really nothing marked, if you will. Coming into next year, I mean, we hope that a lot of the -- or at least some of the uncertainty that is hanging over the economy can be resolved or at least we get a clear direction as to where it's going. Certainly, the uncertainty that's coming from the USMCA revision or renegotiation and what will happen with that. I mean, you've heard -- we've heard that in a couple of weeks, we'll be hearing from our government as to some of the agreements they've come to with the U.S. administration. So hopefully, that will start to settle down, and we'll know a little bit better where it heads. Hopefully, as we get into the first -- or the workings of the judicial reform, we start to see how it how it works, and we start to see some decisions that support, again, giving more certainty to investment. And again, just hopefully, some of this uncertainties start to play out and we start to get a better sense of what's going on. We know then what to expect. And if that happens, I think the economy will be able to start growing again at a faster clip, maybe come back to what we were doing before all of this uncertainty, about a 1.5%, 2% rate, which at this stands would be pretty good. Not what we need certainly as a country. I mean, we really should be working hard to take all of the obstacles away from investments so that we can start growing at 3% or higher rates, but that's going to take some time and uncertainty is key for that certainty. So that will hopefully play out by '27, but at least by '26, if we can get some uncertainty out, we'll see greater economic growth and then we might see a consumer that feels a little bit better about things and then domestic consumption can start to pick up again. That's our expectation. But let's see how quickly we can -- how quickly it unravels and happens.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Renata Cabral with Citibank.

[Renata Fonseca Cabral Sturani, analyst]

Congrats on the results. So my first question is still about the consumption environment, but specifically to understand if consumers are making the trade downs and if you see a bigger penetration of private label in the categories that the company has? And the second question is related to cost. In the initial remarks, I understood that the company expects that the raw material prices should maintain for the upcoming months. I would like just to confirm if that's the view. And for the fourth quarter, if the company has any hedges or the effects?

[Pablo Roberto González Guajardo, executive]

I hope I can answer your questions. You were not coming through too clearly, but if I don't, please let me know. Again, when it comes to consumers, we're seeing a divergence. Those that buy premium products continue to do so. Those consumers that are used to buy either value or economy products, we see a little bit of trade down to the economy segment. not a big trade down, but a little bit of trade down given how stretched they are. And tied to that, we are also seeing growth in penetration of private labels in the country. And it's a combination of the economic situation and retailers being a little bit more aggressive when it comes to pushing their private label. When it comes to costs, again, we already have seen in our purchases lower costs of most of our raw materials, excluding fluff. And that's just taking a little bit of time to reflect on our cost of goods sold, but we expect that to continue to -- start to happen certainly in the fourth quarter. And no doubt early in 2026. And our expectations for costs in the 2026 is that we will come in with, again, most of them on a downward trend and that will certainly be tailwinds for our cost together with the exchange rate, which will compare very favorably in the first half of the year. So that should be very, very helpful going forward. And when it comes to hedges, no, we have no more hedges during this quarter, and we don't expect to hedge going forward.

[Operator]

We will move next with Antonio Hernandez with Actinver.

[Antonio Hernandez, analyst]

Just following up on [ Renata's ] question, should we expect given that because of the tailwinds from FX and maybe raw materials and so on, that maybe EBITDA margin, at least in the short term has already hit rock bottom. Is that like you see basically upside on going forward?

[Pablo Roberto González Guajardo, executive]

Yes, absolutely. And it's interesting how you put it rock bottom when it's 25%, and it's still one of the best EBITDA margins out there for any Consumer Products company in the world. But yes, we probably have hit rock bottom. And going forward, we should expect better margins, no doubt.

[Antonio Hernandez, analyst]

Exactly. Yes. I mean, rock bottom considering the 25% to 27%.

[Pablo Roberto González Guajardo, executive]

I understand. I just -- quite frankly, I just used it to make a point, sorry.

[Antonio Hernandez, analyst]

Exactly. It's all relative in the end, but yes, pretty good margins. Just a quick follow-up. In terms of innovation and how you're also treating these consumers that are willing to buy these premium products. Maybe if you could provide any color on how much do they represent or innovation in terms of sales? Anything like that would be helpful.

[Pablo Roberto González Guajardo, executive]

Look, I think most of our growth really is coming from products that -- where we've innovated. And again, we're very, very excited with what we've done, but even more so with what we have coming. And early in 2026, we hope to share a little bit more of our strategies when it comes to areas -- main areas of focus and opportunities by category, channel and brands and also the -- what we see would be some of the very exciting innovations that we're going to be putting into the market. So let's hold on that until the first quarter of '26, and we'll be able to provide you more insight and details into what it's done and how we expect it to contribute to our growth going forward.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] We will move next with Jeronimo de Guzman with INCA Investments.

[Jeronimo de Guzman, analyst]

Start with a follow-up on the cost side. You mentioned that there's no hedges impacting the fourth quarter, but I just wanted to understand how much did the FX hedges impact the third quarter?

[Pablo Roberto González Guajardo, executive]

I would probably say they did impact about 50% of our purchases for the second quarter and for the first part of the third quarter. So assuming that what we saw on the third quarter was mostly based on those purchases. You could say that approximately 50% of our dollar-denominated purchases were impacted by those hedges in the quarter. I don't know if that made sense.

[Jeronimo de Guzman, analyst]

But only half -- but only for half of the third quarter...

[Pablo Roberto González Guajardo, executive]

Yes, because of the -- no, I would say for the full quarter, about 50% of our U.S. dollar purchases, which are about 50% of our costs were hedged.

[Jeronimo de Guzman, analyst]

Got it. Okay. And what was the average FX for those hedges?

[Pablo Roberto González Guajardo, executive]

[ 20 70 ] something.

[Jeronimo de Guzman, analyst]

That will be a big improvement. And then just want to understand, given the much better cost outlook and the fact that these hedges are less of a headwind going forward or not a headwind going forward, how are you thinking about pricing going forward?

[Pablo Roberto González Guajardo, executive]

Look, we continue to take a very close look at each category and each tier and each channel to see where there are opportunities for pricing because, yes, we see tailwinds when it comes to costs of raw materials. We see headwinds in other costs, for example, on labor costs, which have been increasing in Mexico for quite some years. And when you compound their impact over the years, it's becoming a little bit more impactful, if you will, and some other issues. And plus we want to continue to generate important margins and profit so that we can further invest behind our brands. So pricing will not be as maybe in the past where you would just [indiscernible] we're going to increase 4% in the diaper category in March and period. It's going to be more of a strategic analysis, again by tier, by channel, et cetera, to determine where the opportunities are together with a very important push behind mix for our brands given the innovation we have. And so we will continue to look for opportunities to price and opportunities to improve our mix going forward.

[Jeronimo de Guzman, analyst]

Okay. Yes, that's helpful. So the 4% that you had this quarter year-on-year, how much of that was mix versus actual price changes? Or was it just less promotions versus a year ago, I guess, which is kind of a...

[Pablo Roberto González Guajardo, executive]

It was about half and half. It was about 2% price, 2% mix.

[Jeronimo de Guzman, analyst]

Okay. Got it. Great. And just one other question on the competitive environment. I wanted to get your sense on market share trends in general, kind of where -- in what areas are you seeing maybe more pressure on the market share side and where you're seeing more more of the market share gains that you're having?

[Pablo Roberto González Guajardo, executive]

Overall, I think we have a very stable market shares, maybe except on diapers, as I mentioned, we see that share growing. When you take a look at bathroom tissue, we're fairly stable. Napkins, we're growing share. kitchen towels, we're growing share. Wipes, we're growing a little bit on value, not on volume. But that's a category where we have lost a little bit of ground to not only private label, but a whole bunch of offerings coming from Asia and other parts of the world at very cheap prices. So we've got plans to attack there and recoup some of the share. And I would say about that, I mean, facial tissue is is flat at about 92%. I mean, our shares are pretty stable overall.

[Jeronimo de Guzman, analyst]

Okay. Sorry, one more question on the new JV, the penetration, any updates on that?

[Pablo Roberto González Guajardo, executive]

On what, sorry?

[Jeronimo de Guzman, analyst]

The new business, the pet, animal [indiscernible]

[Pablo Roberto González Guajardo, executive]

Pet business. No, thanks for the question. Yes, we continue to make inroads. I mean we're getting cataloged in more retail chains and improving our reach within them. So getting more SKUs in there and getting into more stores. And again, the consumer reaction so far has been very, very good. The retail reaction has also been good. So right on track where we wanted to be, and hopefully, that will accelerate in 2026. Again, this is a long-term play, but we should be this -- we absolutely should see this business accelerate in 2026.

[Operator]

We will move next with [ Miguel Ulloa ] with BBVA.

[Miguel Ulloa Suárez, analyst]

It could be regarding the CapEx for next year and any changes in the repurchase program.

[Pablo Roberto González Guajardo, executive]

Miguel, CapEx will remain very likely in the $120 million range. Could be a little bit more if some of the opportunities for exports capitalize, but nothing that would change significantly the capital allocation. For buybacks, this year, we will complete our EUR 1.5 billion program. Still too early to talk about next year. We will definitely have retained earnings from the net income this year to grow the dividend. And as usual, whatever we have left, we will devote to to buybacks. So that we'll have to see after we end the year.

[Miguel Ulloa Suárez, analyst]

That's helpful. And just one, if I may, is regarding further investments or big investments in line for capacity in coming years?

[Pablo Roberto González Guajardo, executive]

Right now, it doesn't look like we need to do anything beyond that 120 average CapEx. Again, if we see more opportunity, we could see a couple of years of ramp-up. And even if at some point, we need a tissue capacity, which at this point, it doesn't look like, but hopefully, that changes, then we would see a couple of years of 150, maybe somewhere around that. Again, nothing that should change significantly the capital allocation.

[Operator]

And this concludes our Q&A session. I will now turn the call over to Pablo González closing remarks.

[Pablo Roberto González Guajardo, executive]

Thank you. Nothing else to say just thanks for participating in the call. I hope you all have a terrific weekend. And since this is our last call before the year-end, I know it's early, but I hope you all have happy holidays and a terrific New Year's and look forward to talking to you early in 2026. Thank you.

[Operator]

And this does conclude today's program. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect at any time.