Meituan Intrinsic Valuation and Fundamental Analysis - Meituan - Alpha Spread

Meituan
HKEX:3690

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Meituan
HKEX:3690
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Price: 193.7 HKD 5.04% Market Closed
Market Cap: 2.1T HKD
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Intrinsic Value

The intrinsic value of one Meituan stock under the Base Case scenario is 104.41 HKD. Compared to the current market price of 193.7 HKD, Meituan is Overvalued by 46%.

The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:

Intrinsic Value
104.41 HKD
Overvaluation 46%
Intrinsic Value
Price
Worst Case
Base Case
Best Case

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Backtest Conclusion
Very Attractive
Current Valuation
+45%
Avg Valuation
-12%
Worst Valuation
-49%
Best Valuation
+45%

Stock is trading at its lowest valuation over the past 5 years.

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Fundamental Analysis

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Business Breakdown

Meituan, a Chinese technology-driven service platform, has emerged as a transformative player in the on-demand economy, blending food delivery, travel booking, restaurant reservations, and more into a cohesive user experience. Founded in 2010, the company has rapidly expanded its service offerings, leveraging its robust logistics network and advanced data analytics to cater to the evolving needs of modern consumers. With over 500 million annual active users, Meituan has established itself as a household name in China, with its core business segment, food delivery, leading the market through innovation and strategic partnerships. Importantly, its brand positions itself as an essential app for...

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Financials
Annual
Quarterly
TTM
Annual
Quarterly
TTM

Balance Sheet Decomposition
Meituan

Current Assets 170.3B
Cash & Short-Term Investments 133.3B
Receivables 12.1B
Other Current Assets 24.9B
Non-Current Assets 115.3B
Long-Term Investments 49.9B
PP&E 29.8B
Intangibles 30.3B
Other Non-Current Assets 5.2B
Current Liabilities 94.3B
Accounts Payable 23B
Accrued Liabilities 6.7B
Short-Term Debt 10.8B
Other Current Liabilities 53.8B
Non-Current Liabilities 30.7B
Long-Term Debt 29.2B
Other Non-Current Liabilities 1.6B
Efficiency

Earnings Waterfall
Meituan

Revenue
305.7B CNY
Cost of Revenue
-194.1B CNY
Gross Profit
111.6B CNY
Operating Expenses
-88.2B CNY
Operating Income
23.4B CNY
Other Expenses
-860.3m CNY
Net Income
22.5B CNY

Free Cash Flow Analysis
Meituan

Last Value
3-Years Average
FCF Margin
Conversion Rate
Earnings Calls

In Q2 2024, Meituan achieved a 21% year-over-year revenue increase to RMB 82.3 billion, with adjusted net profit surging by 77.6% to RMB 13.6 billion and a net profit margin of 16.5%. The company reported robust growth in Annual Transacting Users and Annual Active Merchants, reaching 753 million and 13 million respectively. Cost efficiency improved across food retail and delivery segments, contributing to profit gains. New initiatives, including Meituan Select, showed significant loss reduction. Looking ahead, Meituan remains focused on enhancing operational efficiencies and leveraging synergies across its core local commerce and new initiatives to sustain growth and profitability.

What is Earnings Call?
Fundamental Scores

Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence

Meituan's profitability score is 51/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.

Exceptional 3-Years Revenue Growth
ROE is Increasing
ROIC is Increasing
Positive Gross Profit
51/100
Profitability
Score

Meituan's profitability score is 51/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.

Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence

Meituan's solvency score is 87/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.

87/100
Solvency
Score

Meituan's solvency score is 87/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.

Wall St
Price Targets

Price Targets Summary
Meituan

Wall Street analysts forecast Meituan stock price to drop over the next 12 months.

According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for Meituan is 157.45 HKD with a low forecast of 110.46 HKD and a high forecast of 215.08 HKD.

Lowest
Price Target
110.46 HKD
43% Downside
Average
Price Target
157.45 HKD
19% Downside
Highest
Price Target
215.08 HKD
11% Upside
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Dividends

Meituan
does not pay dividends
Shareholder Yield

Current shareholder yield for Meituan is .

Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?

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Profile

Meituan Logo
Meituan

Country

China

Industry

Retail

Market Cap

2.1T HKD

Dividend Yield

0%

Description

Meituan is an investment holding company, which engages in the provision of a platform that uses technology to connect consumers and merchants. The company is headquartered in Beijing, Beijing and currently employs 100,033 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2018-09-20. The firm connects consumers and businesses to provide services satisfying people's daily eating needs. The firm owns an instant food ordering and delivery brand, Meituan, as well as provides services through its mobile application, Meituan. The firm is also engaged in the operation of a bike-sharing brand, Mobike.

Contact

BEIJING
Beijing
Tower Bc, Hengjiweiye Plaza, No.4 Wangjing East Road, Chaoyang
about.meituan.com

IPO

2018-09-20

Employees

100 033

Officers

See Also

Discover More
What is the Intrinsic Value of one Meituan stock?

The intrinsic value of one Meituan stock under the Base Case scenario is 104.41 HKD.

Is Meituan stock undervalued or overvalued?

Compared to the current market price of 193.7 HKD, Meituan is Overvalued by 46%.

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