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Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc
NYSE:CMG

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Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc Logo
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc
NYSE:CMG
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Price: 2 931.66 USD 0.28%
Updated: Mar 28, 2024

Intrinsic Value

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. engages in the development and operation of classically-cooked, real food with wholesome ingredients without artificial colors, flavors or preservatives. [ Read More ]

The intrinsic value of one CMG stock under the Base Case scenario is 1 629.14 USD. Compared to the current market price of 2 931.66 USD, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc is Overvalued by 44%.

Key Points:
CMG Intrinsic Value
Base Case
1 629.14 USD
Overvaluation 44%
Intrinsic Value
Price
Worst Case
Base Case
Best Case

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Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc

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Fundamental Analysis

Chipotle Showcases Strong Balance Sheet, Expansion
2023-Q4 Earnings Call

Chipotle Showcases Strong Balance Sheet, Expansion

In a year of pivotal growth, Chipotle closed the quarter with a robust balance sheet featuring $1.9 billion in cash and investments, and no debt, while also repurchasing $590 million in stock. It opened a record 121 new locations in Q4, with 110 featuring 'Chipotlane'—a drive-thru that promises hundreds of basis points higher margins than non-Chipotlane units. For the full year, Chipotle expects restaurant-level margins around 25%, even with pressures such as high interest rates. The company's Chipotlane format is already enhancing overall margins and will continue to do so as they become a larger part of the system. 2023 was marked by strong performance, surpassing 3,400 restaurants, over 800 Chipotlanes, and achieving over $3 million in average unit volumes.

Financials

Balance Sheet Decomposition
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc

Current Assets 1.6B
Cash & Short-Term Investments 1.3B
Receivables 168.5m
Other Current Assets 156.8m
Non-Current Assets 6.4B
Long-Term Investments 573.4m
PP&E 5.7B
Intangibles 21.9m
Other Non-Current Assets 79.7m
Current Liabilities 1B
Accounts Payable 197.6m
Accrued Liabilities 623.3m
Other Current Liabilities 209.7m
Non-Current Liabilities 4B
Other Non-Current Liabilities 4B
Efficiency

Earnings Waterfall
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc

Revenue
9.9B USD
Cost of Revenue
-6.5B USD
Gross Profit
3.4B USD
Operating Expenses
-1.8B USD
Operating Income
1.6B USD
Other Expenses
-367.4m USD
Net Income
1.2B USD

Free Cash Flow Analysis
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc

Last Value
3-Years Average
FCF Margin
Conversion Rate
History
Components
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Fundamental Scores

CMG Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc's profitability score is 67/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.

Exceptional 3-Year Average ROE
Exceptional ROE
ROE is Increasing
Positive Free Cash Flow
67/100
Profitability
Score

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc's profitability score is 67/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.

CMG Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc's solvency score is 69/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.

High Altman Z-Score
Low D/E
Long-Term Solvency
Short-Term Solvency
69/100
Solvency
Score

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc's solvency score is 69/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.

Wall St
Price Targets

CMG Price Targets Summary
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc

Wall Street analysts forecast CMG stock price to drop over the next 12 months.

According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CMG is 2 767.43 USD with a low forecast of 1 919 USD and a high forecast of 3 255 USD.

Lowest
Price Target
1 919 USD
35% Downside
Average
Price Target
2 767.43 USD
6% Downside
Highest
Price Target
3 255 USD
11% Upside
View Analyst Estimates
View Analyst Estimates

Competitive Landscape

Ownership

CMG Insider Trading
Buy and sell transactions by insiders

Cumulative Transactions Amount
Period Sold Bought Net
3 Months
6 Months
9 Months
12 Months
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Shareholder Return

CMG Price
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc

1M 1M
+10%
6M 6M
+59%
1Y 1Y
+77%
3Y 3Y
+106%
5Y 5Y
+317%
10Y 10Y
+417%
Annual Price Range
2 931.66
52w Low
1 652.9
52w High
2 955.53
Price Metrics
Average Annual Return 21.29%
Standard Deviation of Annual Returns 30.08%
Max Drawdown -50%
Shares Statistics
Market Capitalization 80.2B USD
Shares Outstanding 27 421 200
Percentage of Shares Shorted 2.51%

CMG Return Decomposition
Main factors of price return

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CMG News

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Last Important Events
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc

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Sentiment Analysis
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc

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Company Profile

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc Logo
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc

Country

United States of America

Industry

Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure

Market Cap

80.2B USD

Dividend Yield

0%

Description

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. engages in the development and operation of classically-cooked, real food with wholesome ingredients without artificial colors, flavors or preservatives. The company is headquartered in Newport Beach, California and currently employs 97,660 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2006-01-26. The firm develops and operates restaurants that serve a relevant menu of burritos, burrito bowls, tacos, and salads, made using fresh ingredients. The firm's Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants serve a menu of burritos, burrito bowls (a burrito without the tortilla), tacos, and salads. The firm sells gift cards, which do not have an expiration date. The company operates Chipotle restaurants throughout the United States, international Chipotle restaurants, and non-Chipotle restaurants. Its serves only meats in its Chipotle restaurants. The firm brand these meats as Responsibly Raised.

Contact

CALIFORNIA
Newport Beach
610 Newport Center Dr, Suite 1400
+19495244000.0
https://www.chipotle.com/

IPO

2006-01-26

Employees

97 660

Officers

Chairman & CEO
Mr. Brian R. Niccol
CFO & Chief Administrative Officer
Mr. John R. Hartung
Chief Operating Officer
Mr. Scott Boatwright
Chief Customer & Technology Officer
Mr. Curtis E. Garner III
Chief Brand Officer
Mr. Christopher Brandt
Head of Investor Relations & Strategy
Ms. Cynthia Henn Olsen CFA
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Chief Legal Officer, General Counsel & Corporate Secretary
Mr. Roger E. Theodoredis
Chief Human Resources Officer
Ms. D Ilene Eskenazi
Managing Director of Europe
Mr. Jim Slater
Chief Corporate Affairs & Food Safety Officer
Ms. Laurie Schalow
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See Also

Discover More
What is the Intrinsic Value of one CMG stock?

The intrinsic value of one CMG stock under the Base Case scenario is 1 629.14 USD.

Is CMG stock undervalued or overvalued?

Compared to the current market price of 2 931.66 USD, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc is Overvalued by 44%.