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Tillys Inc
NYSE:TLYS

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Tillys Inc Logo
Tillys Inc
NYSE:TLYS
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Price: 6.8 USD -1.45% Market Closed
Updated: Mar 29, 2024

Intrinsic Value

Tilly's, Inc. engages in the retail of casual apparel, footwear, and accessories. [ Read More ]

The intrinsic value of one TLYS stock under the Base Case scenario is 6.56 USD. Compared to the current market price of 6.8 USD, Tillys Inc is Overvalued by 3%.

Key Points:
TLYS Intrinsic Value
Base Case
6.56 USD
Overvaluation 3%
Intrinsic Value
Price
Base Case Scenario

Valuation Backtest
Tillys Inc

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Fundamental Analysis

Company Projects Q1 Loss Amid Sales Decline
2024-Q4 Earnings Call

Company Projects Q1 Loss Amid Sales Decline

The company finished the fiscal year with $95 million in cash, down from $113 million, and no debt. Inventory costs rose 2.6% per square foot but were down 9.6% on a comparable basis due to delivery timing. Capital expenditures were $14 million, down from $15.1 million. For Q1 2024, net sales decreased 13.4%, with forecasted sales between $109 million to $119 million, indicating a 7% to 14% decline compared to last year. SG&A expenses are expected at $42 million to $43 million, contributing to an anticipated pretax loss of $17 million to $22 million. Loss per share is projected to be $0.42 to $0.54. On a non-GAAP basis, the net loss outperformed the revised outlook given at the Annual ICR Conference, at $5.2 million.

Financials

Balance Sheet Decomposition
Tillys Inc

Current Assets 195.6m
Cash & Short-Term Investments 93.9m
Receivables 7.1m
Other Current Assets 94.6m
Non-Current Assets 280.3m
PP&E 265.4m
Other Non-Current Assets 14.9m
Current Liabilities 119.3m
Accounts Payable 27m
Accrued Liabilities 78.4m
Other Current Liabilities 13.9m
Non-Current Liabilities 191.9m
Other Non-Current Liabilities 191.9m
Efficiency

Earnings Waterfall
Tillys Inc

Revenue
630.5m USD
Cost of Revenue
-459.2m USD
Gross Profit
171.3m USD
Operating Expenses
-192.6m USD
Operating Income
-21.3m USD
Other Expenses
7.3m USD
Net Income
-14m USD

Free Cash Flow Analysis
Tillys Inc

Last Value
3-Years Average
FCF Margin
Conversion Rate
History
Components
Chart
Table
What is Free Cash Flow?
Fundamental Scores

TLYS Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence

Tillys Inc's profitability score is 46/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.

Positive Gross Profit
Positive 3-Year Average ROE
Positive 3-Years Revenue Growth
Negative Free Cash Flow
46/100
Profitability
Score

Tillys Inc's profitability score is 46/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.

TLYS Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence

Tillys Inc's solvency score is 55/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.

Low D/E
Short-Term Solvency
Long-Term Solvency
Low Altman Z-Score
55/100
Solvency
Score

Tillys Inc's solvency score is 55/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.

Wall St
Price Targets

TLYS Price Targets Summary
Tillys Inc

Wall Street analysts forecast TLYS stock price to rise over the next 12 months.

According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TLYS is 8.8 USD with a low forecast of 8.59 USD and a high forecast of 9.19 USD.

Lowest
Price Target
8.59 USD
26% Upside
Average
Price Target
8.8 USD
29% Upside
Highest
Price Target
9.19 USD
35% Upside
View Analyst Estimates
View Analyst Estimates

Competitive Landscape

Ownership

TLYS Insider Trading
Buy and sell transactions by insiders

Cumulative Transactions Amount
Period Sold Bought Net
3 Months
6 Months
9 Months
12 Months
Why is insider trading important?

Shareholder Return

TLYS Price
Tillys Inc

1M 1M
-12%
6M 6M
-16%
1Y 1Y
-7%
3Y 3Y
-30%
5Y 5Y
-22%
10Y 10Y
-9%
Annual Price Range
6.8
52w Low
6.29
52w High
9.03
Price Metrics
Average Annual Return 16.29%
Standard Deviation of Annual Returns 74.44%
Max Drawdown -68%
Shares Statistics
Market Capitalization 202.9m USD
Shares Outstanding 29 970 000
Percentage of Shares Shorted 3.05%

TLYS Return Decomposition
Main factors of price return

What is price return decomposition?

TLYS News

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Last Important Events
Tillys Inc

Significant happenings or occurrences that are of interest to investors. These could be company-specific developments or market-wide shifts.

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Sentiment Analysis
Tillys Inc

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Last 90 Days 90D

Company Profile

Tillys Inc Logo
Tillys Inc

Country

United States of America

Industry

Retail

Market Cap

202.9m USD

Dividend Yield

0%

Description

Tilly's, Inc. engages in the retail of casual apparel, footwear, and accessories. The company is headquartered in Irvine, California and currently employs 1,450 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2012-05-04. The firm operates approximately 241 stores, in 33 states. Its stores are located in malls, lifestyle centers, power centers, community centers, outlet centers and street-front locations. The firm also offers online shopping, where it offers same products as offers in stores, supplemented by additional online-only styles. The firm's third-party brands include Adidas, BDG, Billabong, Birkenstock, Brixton, Champion, Converse, Diamond Supply, Dickies, Dr. Martens, Ethika, Free People, G-Shock, Herschel Supply Co., HUF, Hurley, Hydro Flask, Jansport, Levi's, Neff, Nike SB, O'Neill, Obey, Primitive, RayBan, Riot Society, Rip Curl, Roxy, RVCA, Salty Crew, Santa Cruz, Spy, Stance, The North Face, Vans and Volcom. The company sells its products through e-commerce Website, www.tillys.com.

Contact

CALIFORNIA
Irvine
10 Whatney
+19496095599.0
https://www.tillys.com/tillys/

IPO

2012-05-04

Employees

1 450

Officers

Co-Founder, Executive Chairman, Interim President & CEO and Chief Strategy Officer
Mr. Hezy Shaked
Executive VP, CFO & Corporate Secretary
Mr. Michael L. Henry
Chief Digital Officer
Mr. Jonathon David Kosoff
Co-Founder
Ms. Tilly Levine
Chief Information Officer
Erik Quade
Vice President of Human Resources
Jaheida Sanchez
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Executive VP & Chief Merchandising Officer
Ms. Laura Janney
VP & Controller
Ms. Christina Campbell
Show Less

See Also

Discover More
What is the Intrinsic Value of one TLYS stock?

The intrinsic value of one TLYS stock under the Base Case scenario is 6.56 USD.

Is TLYS stock undervalued or overvalued?

Compared to the current market price of 6.8 USD, Tillys Inc is Overvalued by 3%.