Twilio Inc
NYSE:TWLO

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Twilio Inc
NYSE:TWLO
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Price: 84.97 USD -0.93% Market Closed
Market Cap: 13B USD
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Intrinsic Value

The intrinsic value of one TWLO stock under the Base Case scenario is 83.12 USD. Compared to the current market price of 84.97 USD, Twilio Inc is Overvalued by 2%.

The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:

TWLO Intrinsic Value
83.12 USD
Overvaluation 2%
Intrinsic Value
Price
Worst Case
Base Case
Best Case

Valuation History
Twilio Inc

Intrinsic Value History
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Backtest Conclusion
Very Attractive
Current Valuation
+45%
Avg Valuation
-12%
Worst Valuation
-49%
Best Valuation
+45%

Stock is trading at its lowest valuation over the past 5 years.

Backtest Example
TWLO
Valuation History
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Valuation History Unavailable

Historical valuation for TWLO cannot be conducted due to limitations such as insufficient data or other constraints.

Valuation In Progress...
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Fundamental Analysis

Company Overview
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Business Segments
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Economic Moat
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Management
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Bear Theses

Twilio’s gross margins remain under sustained pressure due to rising carrier fees and intense competition, casting doubts on the company’s long-term profitability and ability to scale cost-effectively.

Sluggish post-pandemic demand for two-way communications, combined with potential churn among pandemic-era customers, may result in decelerating revenue growth, undermining Twilio’s bullish outlook.

Integration challenges following strategic acquisitions such as SendGrid and Segment could hamper Twilio’s attempts to offer a seamless customer engagement platform, potentially weakening cross-selling opportunities.

Bull Theses

Twilio’s leading CPaaS platform and ongoing expansion into all-in-one customer engagement solutions put the company in a strong position to capture the growing shift to omnichannel communication.

The company’s improved focus on profitability, including strategic cost-cutting measures, should help Twilio generate sustainable margins and enhance shareholder value over the long term.

With Segment’s strong customer data platform capabilities fully integrated, Twilio can unlock higher-value analytics and personalization features, driving deeper adoption and cementing its role as a central communications hub.

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Financials
Annual
Quarterly
TTM
Annual
Quarterly
TTM

Balance Sheet Decomposition
Twilio Inc

Current Assets 3.4B
Cash & Short-Term Investments 2.4B
Receivables 588.5m
Other Current Assets 474.4m
Non-Current Assets 6.4B
Long-Term Investments 485.8m
PP&E 244.4m
Intangibles 5.5B
Other Non-Current Assets 206.1m
Current Liabilities 820.2m
Accounts Payable 100.2m
Accrued Liabilities 564.4m
Other Current Liabilities 155.7m
Non-Current Liabilities 1.1B
Long-Term Debt 990.6m
Other Non-Current Liabilities 101.7m
Efficiency

Free Cash Flow Analysis
Twilio Inc

Last Value
3-Years Average
FCF Margin
Conversion Rate

Earnings Waterfall
Twilio Inc

Revenue
4.5B USD
Cost of Revenue
-2.2B USD
Gross Profit
2.3B USD
Operating Expenses
-2.3B USD
Operating Income
-40.4m USD
Other Expenses
-69m USD
Net Income
-109.4m USD
Fundamental Scores

TWLO Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence

Twilio Inc's profitability score is 41/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.

Positive Gross Profit
Positive 3-Years Revenue Growth
ROIC is Increasing
ROE is Increasing
41/100
Profitability
Score

Twilio Inc's profitability score is 41/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.

TWLO Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence

Twilio Inc's solvency score is 82/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.

High Altman Z-Score
Short-Term Solvency
Long-Term Solvency
Low D/E
82/100
Solvency
Score

Twilio Inc's solvency score is 82/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.

Wall St
Price Targets

TWLO Price Targets Summary
Twilio Inc

Wall Street analysts forecast TWLO stock price to rise over the next 12 months.

According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TWLO is 144.78 USD with a low forecast of 75.75 USD and a high forecast of 194.25 USD.

Lowest
Price Target
75.75 USD
11% Downside
Average
Price Target
144.78 USD
70% Upside
Highest
Price Target
194.25 USD
129% Upside
View Analyst Estimates
View Analyst Estimates

Dividends

Twilio Inc
does not pay dividends
Shareholder Yield

Current shareholder yield for TWLO is .

Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?

Shareholder Yield
Dividend Yield
No dividends
Buyback Yield
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Debt Paydown Yield
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Ownership

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What is the Intrinsic Value of one TWLO stock?

The intrinsic value of one TWLO stock under the Base Case scenario is 83.12 USD.

Is TWLO stock undervalued or overvalued?

Compared to the current market price of 84.97 USD, Twilio Inc is Overvalued by 2%.

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