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Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Lithium Royalty Corp. Second Quarter 2024 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that our complete financial results are available on our website, lithiumroyaltycorp.com under the Investors tab and also accessible on SEDAR+. This event is being webcast live, and a replay of this call and transcript will be available on our website.
Joining us today are Ernie Ortiz, President and CEO of Lithium Royalty Corp.; Dominique Barker, Chief Financial Officer and Head of Sustainability at LRC; and Jonida Zaganjori, Vice President of Investor Relations at Lithium Royalty Corp. We would like to remind the participants that today's commentaries may contain forward-looking information. This call is being recorded on Thursday, August 8, 2024.
I would now like to turn the conference over to Jonida Zaganjori, Vice President of Investor Relations at Lithium Royalty Corp.
Thank you. I will now turn the call over to Ernie.
Thank you, Jonida, and good afternoon, everyone. We are pleased to report our second quarter 2024 financial results. Revenue increased by 85% compared to the same period in 2023, largely due to higher production from our revenue-based royalties at Sigma Lithium and Core Lithium. Market price for spodumene concentrate declined by approximately 72% in the quarter compared to the prior year period. Despite this, it is worth mentioning that the second quarter marked the second highest revenue on record in the company's history.
For the first half of 2024, revenue increased by 41% year-on-year despite the nearly 80% drop in spodumene prices during the first half of the year. The timing of shipments temporarily impacted our revenue in the first quarter, but shipments from our partners were more normalized in the second quarter. Furthermore, while lithium prices were volatile, spodumene prices managed a modest increase in the second quarter as compared to the first. As a reminder, we are 58% skewed to spodumene currently versus lithium carbonate on a NAV basis and 100% of our revenue today is from spodumene mines.
LRC believes that the lithium market is in the process of bottoming with short-term spot pricing dynamics being driven by waves of restocking and destocking throughout 2024. Current prices are creating challenging economics for many operators. This is especially true for [indiscernible] lepidolite and African spodumene sources. We expect the remainder of 2024 to remain volatile, but ultimately, prices should be supported by ongoing cost pressures on a variety of producers and by continued growth in demand.
Many downstream cathode makers and battery makers have commented on improving order books into the second half of the year, suggesting a possible restocking in the near future. This suggests the market is likely to continue its current restock destock cycle until we obtain greater evidence on the uptake of the several new EV offerings that are actively being introduced and that have more affordable price points. Growth of battery demand from energy storage continues to defy expectations, which could also accelerate a pricing recovery.
To reiterate our message from the last few earnings calls, we believe 2024 will be an exciting year for LRC, driven by robust organic growth at several of our portfolio companies. In 2024, we expect 3 additional projects to commence production. Zijin Mining disclosed on their social media accounts that they expect production for Tres Quebradas to commence in the third quarter of 2024. Note that revenue per LRC is dependent on the cadence of shipments, not the start of production. Construction at Mariana is proceeding well with Gangfeng reaffirming that it expects production to commence by year-end 2024. Atlas Lithium intends to ship its modular DMS plant to Brazil in the third quarter of 2024 with a goal to start Phase 1 production of 150,000 tonnes per year at Das Neves in the fourth quarter of the year.
As a result of organic volume growth and new projects commencing commercial production, 2024 and 2025 represent important milestones for the company as we are set to experience material growth as well as demonstrate significant operating leverage going forward. As the number of assets in our portfolio continues to grow, we believe that LRC is positioned to be one of the lowest cost companies in the lithium industry with ample opportunities for free cash flow growth.
While LRC did not complete any acquisitions during the quarter, we continue to evaluate new potential investments, favoring assets that are either in or nearing production. We know that the lithium market is at an important inflection point with many developers and explorers reevaluating their time lines to production and successive steps in the market. As such, LRC is staying close to individual companies and royalty opportunities to capitalize at the appropriate time.
There were several positive announcements within our portfolio during the quarter. Key items to note. Sigma Lithium continues to cement itself as one of the lowest cost producers of spodumene concentrate globally as it has continued to ship approximately 22,000 tonnes since its first shipment in July 2023. Sigma announced the final investment decision for its Phase 2 plant that would add 250,000 tonnes of spodumene concentrate and is expected to be commissioned in 2025.
Core Lithium appointed a new CEO, Paul Brown, in June of this year. Paul brings years of lithium expertise for mining-related roles at Mineral Resources, including having been the CEO of the lithium and iron ore business between 2020 and 2023. He has unique insights in ramping up lithium assets given his experience at both Wodgina and Mt Marion. Core Lithium commented that they plan to outline cost reduction opportunities in the coming months with the goal of outlining the path to restart production in the first half of calendar 2025.
Winsome Resources secured an exclusive option to acquire the legacy Renard diamond mine, which is 60 kilometers away from Adina and has a design capacity of 2.2 million tonnes per year. Over $900 million of the previous owner's capital has been invested, helping to derisk the Adina project as it could reduce both the time and CapEx required to begin production. Winsome expects to release project studies in the third quarter of 2024 for both Adina only and Adina plus Renard operational scenarios. The company also expects to announce a resource update in the first quarter of 2025. Winsome additionally, they raised $25 million in the quarter to advance these initiatives.
Delta Lithium remains well funded with $87 million in cash and is progressing in its development cycle. Delta expects to release its maiden scoping study in the December quarter of 2024 and has embarked on a DFS level metallurgical test program at Yinnetharra. Overall, Delta is working swiftly to advance Yinnetharra to production-ready status. We remain committed to growing shareholder value, and we'll continue to evaluate acquisition opportunities and act when they are accretive to the portfolio on both a financial and qualitative basis. We are excited by the many positive portfolio catalysts expected through the balance of the year.
I will now pass to Dominique, who will discuss our financial results.
Thank you, Ernie. Our royalty revenue this quarter was $1.6 million, up from $631,000 in the previous quarter and up from $838,000 in the same period last year. The 2 main reasons for the increase are related to increased production at Core and Sigma as well as a slight rise in the price of spodumene concentrate for the quarter-on-quarter results. G&A expenses were $1.4 million in the quarter versus last quarter at $1.6 million. Excluding noncash stock-based comp, cash G&A was $900,000 in the quarter compared to $1 million in the previous quarter.
We are focused on managing our cost as an organization, and we will continue to be vigilant on the balance of the year. LRC's adjusted EBITDA flipped to a positive $138,000 in the quarter compared to negative $662,000 last quarter and negative $700,000 in the same period last year.
Ernie mentioned it earlier in his remarks, the difference between production and shipments is an important concept for our stakeholders to understand. Sigma started production in April 2023. However, the first shipment only occurred in the third quarter. We will monitor how our 3 new assets ramp up in the second half of 2024, but they may follow a similar pattern of building up a critical mass of units before shipping and therefore, at that time, triggering a royalty revenue to LRC. So we are excited to see the milestone of production, which, of course, is an important one. However, it will only translate to revenue for us once shipments are made. Therefore, watch for the milestone of production in the second half of the year for Tres Quebradas, Mariana and Das Neves, but be aware that there may be timing differences between production and shipments.
Also, we had a quotational pricing adjustment downwards in the quarter. And given the low price environment we're seeing today, if this continues, we can expect to have a future QP adjustment downward next quarter. It is worth noting that Q3 2023 was our highest revenue quarter-to-date. And so it's reasonable to expect that our year-on-year comp for Q3 2024, so next quarter will be an unfavorable comparison. For the balance of the year, we expect Core to sell the inventory they had on hand at the end of June 2024, estimated at about 5,000 wet metric tons of spodumene concentrate and 75,000 wet metric tons of lithium fines, which had a market value together to Core of about AUD 15 million or around USD 10 million, after which point they will put the property into light care and maintenance. Therefore, Q3 could be our last revenue from Core until the restart occurs, which, as Ernie described, is expected to occur -- is expected to be announced or have clarity in the first half of 2025. And LRC holds a 2.5% GOR royalty on the Finniss project.
With regard to liquidity, we had $9.1 million of cash at quarter end and 0 drawdown on our credit facility. In summary, the price of spodumene has been volatile in the past year. In this environment, we wish to remain prudent and ensure we maintain a strong balance sheet. While volatility in the lithium market has led to shifting prices, we believe the underlying demand fundamentals remain strong, driven by EVs and utility scale storage. We expect higher cost producers will reduce production and only makes sense to do so economically. And the price curve is still in contango, albeit flattening somewhat, indicating that prices should rise in the future.
Since we have exposure to lower-cost producers, we are optimistic about our future. We believe that with the 3 new asset start-ups in the second half of this year, LRC is positioned as one of the lowest cost players in the lithium industry. We expect to provide more information on our annual results and once we get greater clarity on the timing of the asset ramp-ups.
I will now pass it back to Ernie for closing remarks.
Thank you, Dominique. I will now cover a review of the lithium market during the quarter. Overall, the second quarter was punctuated by similar trends to the first with better-than-expected EV sales trends in China, partially offset by more modest trends in North America and Europe. A key differentiating point in the second quarter is a greater visibility towards much better sales trends in the energy storage sector that could underpin upside to demand growth forecast in the second half of the year and beyond. Electric vehicle demand trends continue to be geographically dependent with Chinese EVs growing by 31% in the quarter. This was supported by trade-in programs early in the second quarter, which were further enhanced on July 25. The updated trade-in program doubled the subsidy to RMB 20,000 per unit with a vast opportunity set given the number of eligible cars is estimated to be 14 million units. This should continue to support robust sales in the second half of the year.
In Europe and North America, growth is more moderate. LG Energy Solution recently updated their EV forecast with Europe expected to grow mid-teens and North America low 20%. These are both reductions of roughly 10 percentage points from before. Despite the more moderate growth in Western markets, there are several new affordable EV offerings in the process of being released that should improve growth rates in the second half of the year and into 2025.
Additionally, stricter CO2 targets are being implemented in Europe next year. To this effect, Renault recently commented that EV penetration in Europe should rise from the current 15% to 22% to 23% in 2025 in order for the industry to avoid EUR 10 billion plus in fines. These positive demand drivers could lead to seasonality in 2024 being even more pronounced than normal. Typically, 2/3 of Chinese EV sales occur in the second half of the year. And this year, the affordable EVs being introduced in the West in the summertime could compound the seasonality of EV sales. The growth rate in the energy storage sector increased further in the second quarter and should further accelerate lithium demand going forward. The IEA highlighted that in June, new energy storage installations grew by 150% year-on-year in the United States, with 2Q '24 installations growing by 143% year-on-year.
Tesla reported 9.4 gigawatt hours of storage deployed in the second quarter, which marked a 158% year-on-year increase. Additionally, several new projects recently secured funding with the key one being the Algihaz project in Saudi Arabia. This project is the world's largest energy storage project that was announced last month between Algihaz Holdings and Sungrow. The storage facility has a nameplate capacity of 7.8 gigawatt hours and is expected to start production later this year. We estimate that this should require lithium content equivalent to roughly 125,000 to 150,000 high-performance EVs.
On the supply side, we are seeing more commentary from several [indiscernible] producers, namely the petalite and African spodumene, indicating that their operations are struggling at current prices. Additionally, funding for the lithium sector has declined significantly, which should moderate supply growth in the medium term. Spodumene prices are currently trading at roughly 65% of long-term consensus forecast, suggesting improved pricing in the coming years. That said, I want to underscore that irrespective of pricing, LRC's cadence of new asset ramp-ups position us well to thrive in any commodity cycle environment.
In closing, lithium demand remains strong with growth rates expected to be 20% this year plus, with trends suggesting a possible upside. The second half of the year will be key for annual demand growth given the many new affordable EV offerings being released and the positive trends in the increasingly important energy storage market. Equally important, LRC has many exciting catalysts in the coming months given our new asset ramp-ups, which we look forward to updating our stakeholders on later this year. We remain committed to increasing shareholder value and thank our shareholders for their support.
I will now pass it back to Jonida for Q&A.
Operator, we're now ready to answer questions. Please open up the lines for Q&A.
[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Patrick Cunningham of Citi.
So Ernie, you talked about supply growth being more limited given depressed returns, but we haven't seen significant shut-ins yet. Some of the headlines from the major producers obviously pointing towards a tough environment cutting CapEx, Arcadium delaying CapEx at James Bay and even reviewing Mt Cattlin. Given some of these headlines and weaker demand outlook in the West, are there any concerns that supply cuts may come disproportionately from some of these Western projects and maybe have a drag on your portfolio?
Sure. So thanks, Patrick. So I think in our prepared remarks, we said that supply growth was probably more moderate in the medium term. I think for the near term, we are still seeing a very robust supply growth. But in the medium term, just given the lack of funding that we've seen in the industry and the sector in the last 12 to 18 months, I think it's fair to assume that supply growth is probably more limited in the medium term, given the lack of funding. But you are right that in the near term, we are still seeing production out of the lepidolite and African spodumene producers. But as I mentioned, there have been several public comments now, for instance, from some of these -- the owners of these mines that have said that at these price levels, they are very challenged. And obviously, we'll have to see whether that translates into any action or curtailments. But no question that there is very challenging economic scenarios for these mines.
And as far as our portfolio, I think we feel very confident that our diversified approach now with 35 royalties, of course, there will be positive news flow and negative news flow at any particular point in time. But because we have scale and now have 35 royalties, we feel that we're appropriately diversified that we'll have positive news flow as well as negative news flow at some point in time. But so far, we are seeing our marquee royalties continuing to progress, continuing to raise capital and continuing to advance the projects in due course.
Great. And maybe a question for Dominique on the lower cost business model. How should we be thinking about the G&A run rate going forward, maybe both in terms of cash and noncash SBC? And next year, when you have 6 producing assets and maybe more appetite for royalties, how should we think about more G&A expense coming back into the business?
Yes. We've messaged that our run rate G&A is $5 million cash and including stock-based comp would be probably on the order of $6 million to $6.5 million. This is a very scalable business model. And I would say that we are entering a tough environment here. And so we are very vigilant in terms of managing our costs. And so we feel like we're going to hit the target that we've set of $5 million cash G&A.
Your next question comes from the line of David Deckelbaum of TD Cowen.
This is Aaron Pzena on for David Deckelbaum. So where do you guys see the value in new royalties going forward? Like do you see future deals to be from existing portfolio names or new relationships?
I would say both, but likely from new relationships. And I think an important point that we mentioned on the prepared remarks that is worth repeating is that there have been a lot of new announcements as far as updated time lines for a lot of projects. And I think there's going to be more evidence of that in the coming months for coming opportunities. So we are staying close to opportunities, and we want to make sure that we're investing at the appropriate time. But we are still seeing a lot of good deal flow. At this point in time, given we have 35 royalties, we don't have to be as aggressive given we have such scale and diversity in the portfolio. But we are still actively pursuing opportunities. We think valuations are getting more compelling. We want to make sure that we act at the appropriate time, just given some of the new developments we're seeing across the industry and new time lines.
Okay. Great. And then given the pullback in refining investment outside of China, what are your expectations going forward for the Canadian spodumene projects? Can they still compete for capital without the local refining in Canada?
Yes, it's a bit of thematic question. I think for us, we're very much focused on the upstream. So we haven't really taken a big position in any kind of refining capacity. So our position is mostly on the upstream and hard rock deposits. We do have a heavy exposure to Quebec spodumene. We are still very bullish on our position in Quebec. We think ultimately, scale in Quebec is going to be very important. And we're fortunate to have 3 out of the 5 largest projects in Quebec. And we like our positions there with the key ones being Moblan, of course, James Bay, Galaxy and Adina.
And I would say that out of probably -- out of the many Quebec projects, Adina is probably one of the few with Winsome that has probably had a chance at accelerating the time line as opposed to elongating it because of the Renard option. So obviously, we'll see what happens with the scoping study. But we feel very strong with our position in Quebec, given we have scale. And we don't think that every project will make it, but that's similar to across any jurisdiction, but we feel very confident that the scale and grade profile of our hard rock upstream positions will be still very advantageous in the long term.
The next question comes from the line of Ben Isaacson of Scotiabank.
This is Apurva on for Ben. Congrats on the quarter, folks. My first question is, what range of IRRs do you consider or look for when you're evaluating projects, understanding that they'd be at different stages of development. And I guess to that point, given where prices are right now, are those ranges achievable?
Sure. So we've said since the IPO that we're targeting after-tax internal rate of returns of mid-teens as an average. And in those assumptions, we use essentially spot pricing or long-term consensus as a ceiling in negotiations to the extent that we can. We have much more conservative volume assumptions than the company's history. So we don't really use Phase 2 or Phase 3 expansions in any of those assumptions to bake into that return metrics. So that's the general framework. We do still think those are achievable. I mean, especially now with improving valuations across the sector, we think it's actually even more achievable.
We've seen out of the 3 ones that are in production to date, we have been probably well north of that in many cases, even despite the volatility that we're seeing across the portfolio. So I think we're still at our target. We're still seeing a lot of good opportunities that have the ability to achieve those returns. And especially at this point in the cycle, even though we're not assuming price, you could have price on your side in the next few years for a lot of investments, which would be additional upside beyond that initial kind of mid-teens return that we're looking for.
Got you. And then my next question is you discussed, I think, in your prepared remarks that your approach to acquisitions has shifted slightly and that you're focusing on producing or near production projects. Is there any consideration as to whether you will look into African spodumene or lower-tier jurisdictions or grades as well?
So never say never because there could always be very attractive situations. There could be a lot of value. But I think the preference for now would still be our main geographies, which we're already present. We've been talking about at least for Hard Rock, the ABCs of hard rock, that being Australia, Brazil and Canada are the core jurisdictions. And then in brine, Argentina, I think we'll likely continue to focus on just those jurisdictions. The opportunity would have to be really compelling in Africa for us to get involved. But at the same time, we just see so much low-hanging fruit in Australia, Brazil and Canada that there's no need for us to kind of expand in areas where we think we have a competitive advantage. So I think for right now, we'll still be focused on our core geographies.
Your next question comes from the line of Katie Lachapelle of Canaccord Genuity.
For some of the projects on which you have royalties, quite a few that are in production or about to enter production. Some of those companies had set some targets around future production growth, whether it's Sigma looking to do Phase 3, Tres Quebradas doing Phase 2. Just in the current price environment and if prices are to stay at low levels for the next couple of years, how are you thinking about the build-out or timing of these incremental phases for some of the projects for which you have royalties on?
Thanks. So for the expansion, we obviously have to defer to the company's public commentary and their own expectation. So I think what Sigma said right now for Phase 2 is that they expect it to be commissioned in 2025. So we'll wait to see kind of the updates when they report and similarly with Zijin and kind of our other operating partners as regards to those expansions. But for all of those key projects, I would say the economics are still very robust given the existing infrastructure, the economies of scale that could come at it. In fact, Zijin has already been working on the expansion for, I think, over a year now as per their public commentary. So there's a lot of work that's already been put into the ground and invested to date. So like I said, there could be economies of scale. But as far as specific timing on any expansions, we have to defer to their own -- the company's own public record.
Great. And then maybe just one follow-up question. Obviously, you're continuing to look at additional opportunities for adding in new royalties. Your cash balance is basically flat quarter-over-quarter. Do you feel like that's restricting you in any way to be able to execute on potential royalties or like making you wait a couple of more months until you have more cash on the balance sheet? Or are most of the conversations that you're having open to maybe different structures?
Ernie, I can take that. I mean, Katie, normally, if we're seeing a downturn right now and normally in the past, that would be an opportunity. But right now, we already have a sizable portfolio with good embedded organic growth and strong diversity across stage of development and also geography. So when we think about acquisitions, they're not really necessary for our strategic growth plans. I mean, of course, they're always on our radar, and we would be looking at those new opportunities on the things that we've talked about, such as economics, cost profile, scale, stage of development and, of course, accretion. So -- and of course, an additional consideration is balance sheet, which you've mentioned. So -- but that said, I mean, there are other ways of an alternative to traditional finance that we can look at, which might include partnerships or otherwise.
Your next question comes from the line of Mohamed Sidibe of National Bank Financial.
So my first question is still on the line of the Lithium Royalty space royalties acquisition. Aside from the liquidity, I guess, how much competition are you facing on the front of new royalty acquisition when you're looking at opportunities? Could you give us maybe a little bit of color on that?
So we have seen increased competition. I would say it's not robust, but I think before it was very limited. But I think we saw that there was another royalty announced in the Brazilian spodumene space that was publicly announced, so we can allude to that. So I would say that is something that we can point to where that is a point of competition. But beyond that, we haven't seen any other kind of increased scope of competition. We feel kind of very well positioned given our scale, kind of dedication to the industry. There's still many partners that actively call on us to see if they can seek greater financing for us because they want to have the partnership with LRC. And in some ways, we see this as well as a validation of our strategy.
So overall, and we're of the view that eventually there will be more competition just given how quickly the market is evolving. We're now going to over 1 million tonnes of demand and going to 3 million tonnes by 2030. So we do expect competition, but I would say it's still very minor. It's not what we're seeing in the precious metal space and so forth. So we still have a lot of good deal flow and in many cases, proprietary.
Great. My second question relates more to 2025 and in terms of new assets that you have coming online. I know that we always talk about Horse Creek and where they are and given the fact that they're not a public company. Could you give us maybe an update on where they stand and when in 2025, we can expect maybe some contribution from that asset?
Sure. So they are working on completing their financing for their downstream plant in Tennessee. And the last communication to us has been that they are still on track for starting production at the mine in 2025. I think we can provide slightly greater clarity at the next quarterly conference call. But the last communication to us has been that they do expect to start production at the mine in 2025.
Your next question comes from the line of Mac Whale of Cormark Securities.
Just one question, Ernie. Any change at all on looking at other metals, whether they're in the battery space or in related spaces to try to sort of leverage your existing relationships? Is there any thought on that given the current situation with the lithium market?
Not necessarily, no. I think we've always said we're open to other EV metals, but it's not something that we're actively looking for. I think it was something that deal came through kind of our network and we had an edge that we'd be open to evaluating it. But no, I think our conviction in the lithium thematic remains strong. It's probably the strongest it's ever been. We're seeing a lot of good news flow on energy storage, and we're starting to see the kind of the new affordable models being introduced. So no, I think this is when we probably want to get even more exposure to lithium, especially as we start seeing kind of the new updated time lines from certain projects, improved valuations. I think this is a very exciting time for us to get a greater proportion of our portfolio in lithium.
And given -- I know you've sort of answered this question already, but I thought I'd ask it again. I mean given where valuations are on a lot of different companies and projects, is there any -- like what would you need -- I'm trying to figure out how to formulate the question in a way that like would you consider raising equity to bring the cash balance higher in order to perhaps make an acquisition of a royalty that is well beyond, in your view, well beyond the targeted range for a return?
Do you know what I'm getting at? I know you don't want to necessarily dilute down here. But at the same time, you must be seeing what you think are really good valuation metrics on projects that maybe in a year or 2, we'll be looking at thinking like that was such a great acquisition. I mean, can you give us some idea of whether you're -- what the metrics might look like to sort of change your position on boosting the balance sheet?
Sure. I think I'd refer also to the comments that Dominique said earlier that given the scale of the portfolio of the 35 royalties and diversified, we essentially already have -- we essentially have many assets at every single stage of development coming to production, development, exploration. And in many cases, they're probably -- our assets have probably the best within all those categories that we don't feel forced to having to go for any kind of major particular assets.
Of course, if an opportunity was attractive, we'll evaluate it. But I don't think we feel in a position where we have to chase anything. In many cases as well, we're seeing how the companies are performing as well as far as -- for any opportunities, can they ramp up effectively, can they produce on spec and so forth. So I think luckily, we do have a good number of opportunities that we're evaluating for that and looking at that we don't feel pressed to kind of do anything major. But of course, we'll evaluate every opportunity and decide accordingly.
There are no further questions at this time. I'd now like to turn the call back over to Jonida Zaganjori for final closing remarks. Please go ahead.
Thank you to everyone who joined us today. This concludes our second quarter 2024 results conference call and webcast. We expect to release our third quarter 2024 results after market close on November 11, 2024, with the conference call held on November 12 at 9:00 a.m. EST. Thank you for your interest in Lithium Royalty Corp. Goodbye.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines.