Western Forest Products Inc

TSX:WEF

Q2-2025 Earnings Call

[Operator]

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to Western Forest Products Second Quarter 2025 Results Conference Call.

During this conference call, Western's representatives may make forward-looking statements within the meaning of applicable securities laws. These statements can be identified by words like anticipate, plan, estimate, will and other references for future periods. Although these forward-looking statements reflect management's reasonable beliefs, expectations and assumptions that are subject to inherent uncertainties and actual results may differ materially. There are many factors that could cause actual outcomes to be different, including those factors described under risks and uncertainties in the company's annual MD&A, which can be accessed on SEDAR and is supplemented by the company's quarterly MD&A.

Forward-looking statements are based only on information currently available to Western and speak only as of the date on which they are made. Except as required by law, Western undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking statements. Accordingly, listeners should exercise caution in relying upon forward-looking statements.

I would now like to turn the meeting over to Mr. Steven Hofer, President and CEO of Western Forest Products. Mr. Hofer, please go ahead.

[J. Hofer, executive]

Thank you, Patrick, and good morning, everyone. I'd like to welcome you to Western Forest Products 2025 Second Quarter Conference Call. Joining me on the call today is Glen Nontell, our Chief Financial Officer; and Bruce Alexander, our Senior Vice President of Sales, Marketing and Manufacturing.

We issued our 2025 second quarter results yesterday. I will provide you with some introductory comments and then ask Glen to take you through our financial results. I will follow Glen's review with our outlook section before we open the call to your questions.

Despite challenging markets, we were successful in generating positive EBITDA in the second quarter of 2025. We continue to focus efforts on our operational efficiency and recovery while also managing working capital and our costs to ensure we maintain a strong balance sheet.

In our timberlands group, this included a continued focus on costs and inventory management despite ongoing permitting challenges in BC and a strike at the La-kwa sa muqw Limited Partnership. In our manufacturing group, we adjusted to evolving markets, proactively staging lumber products in the U.S. ahead of duty increases and focusing on working capital and cost management.

In our sales and marketing group, we continue to focus on growing key strategic customers and advancing opportunities to grow our domestic and international customer base. At the same time, we are proactively adjusting our operating schedules to align production with market demand as well as deferring and reducing our planned capital spending for 2025. This included deferring one of our new continuous kilns at our value-added division to mid-2026.

Site preparation work for the kilns has completed and construction is commencing on kiln one. These kiln investments will increase the production of value-added kiln-dried lumber products and help support the diversification of our global customer base.

Unfortunately, during the quarter, our Columbia Vista sawmill sustained extensive damage in a fire rendering the mill inoperable. We are thankful there were no injuries, and we are working with our insurer to determine available proceeds related to the damage and business interruption. We are in the process of evaluating all future options for the site, including the potential for rebuilding, but no decisions have been made.

With significant increases in softwood lumber duties commencing in the third quarter and U.S. trade uncertainty, we expect more challenging market conditions in the second half of 2025. However, we are well positioned to navigate the near-term uncertainty with our strong balance sheet.

I will now turn it over to Glen to review our key financial metrics.

[Glen Nontell, executive]

Thanks, Steven. Second quarter adjusted EBITDA was $0.5 million as compared to $9.4 million in the same period last year. As compared to the prior year, results in the second quarter were negatively impacted by lower lumber shipments, increased softwood lumber duties a weaker U.S. dollar to Canadian dollar exchange rate and lower external log shipments and prices. This was partially offset by a higher lumber prices in most markets and a higher specialty lumber sales mix.

We closed the second quarter with approximately 69 million board feet of lumber inventory and 698,000 cubic meters of log inventory. We continue to be focused on managing working capital and improving our inventory turnover. But log and lumber turnover ratio is improving 2% and 11%, respectively, compared to the same period last year.

Turning to CapEx. Given the near-term market outlook and in support of maintaining a strong balance sheet, we've reduced our planned 2025 capital expenditure spending to between $35 million to $40 million. This is a reduction of approximately $25 million from our prior estimate of $60 million to $65 million provided in May.

From a balance sheet perspective, we ended the second quarter with a strong balance sheet with a net debt to capitalization ratio of 5% and available liquidity of $190 million. Combined with successfully extending our $250 million credit facility to July 2028, we expect sufficient liquidity to navigate near-term market conditions.

With respect to softwood lumber duties, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced its final determination for antidumping duty rates related to the 6 administrative review. The rate applicable to Western increased to 20.6% effective July 28, compared to the prior rate of 7.7%. The final determination of the countervailing duty rate for the 6 administrative review are expected in the third quarter of 2025.

Based on the final antidumping duty rate and preliminary countervailing duty rate, Western will record a noncash export tax expense of approximately USD 44 million plus accrued interest of $7 million in the third quarter of 2025. These amounts will reduce the current long-term duty receivable of USD 58.9 million on our balance sheet.

Turning to third quarter seasonality. Typical third quarters can be challenging operationally as hot dry weather can restrict logging activity, reducing harvest volumes and impacting costs. While we've yet to experience any significant forest fires in our areas of operation, hot and dry conditions may impact harvest levels through the summer.

Steven, that concludes my remarks.

[J. Hofer, executive]

Thanks, Glen. Turning to our market outlook. Markets in North America are expected to be volatile through the third quarter of 2025. increasing softwood lumber duties, elevated interest rates and general economic uncertainty are expected to impact repair and renovation spending and overall housing activity. North American lumber markets will be challenged for both commodity and specialty products, with demand and pricing expected to remain weak across most species and product categories.

Demand remains strong for specialty products into all export markets with anticipated price increases for Western Red Cedar, Hemlock and Douglas Fir in the third quarter of 2025. In Japan and China, while housing activity continues to trend downwards, low lumber inventories are resulting in stable pricing. Overall, we currently have a third quarter order file of approximately 95 million board feet.

From an operational perspective, given current market conditions, combined with harvest permit approval delays and lack of accessible economic fiber in BC. We plan to reduce lumber production by approximately 25 million board feet in the third quarter. We will continue to align our operating schedules to market demand and available log supply. Should the strike at La-kwa sa muqw Limited Partnership continue for a prolonged period of time. Additional operating curtailments may be acquired at our Duke Point and Ladysmith sawmills in the second half of 2024.

We continue to monitor the situation and help bargaining between the USW and La-kwa sa muqw can resume in order to bring the work stoppage to an end. Looking ahead, we will remain focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet while also executing on our key strategic priorities.

With that, Patrick, we can open the call up to questions.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions]. The first question is from Sean Steuart from TD Cowen.

[Sean Steuart, analyst]

A couple of questions. Steven, I'd be interested on your perspective on the recent federal government support mechanisms that were introduced for the lumber industry and thoughts on time lines to access loan guarantees, grants and Western's potential interest in using the program.

[J. Hofer, executive]

Thanks, Sean. So the newly announced federal government support, I think, is welcome news for the entire forest industry across Canada. The loan guarantees and training dollars are intended to help companies and people navigate the near-term challenges. And the market development funding will help to build a more diverse trading relationships for lumber across all of our key export markets.

Obviously, the specific details of the program, various programs have not been released yet. We will certainly dive into the details when those are presented to us. And where it makes sense, we'll absolutely access those programs.

So overall, I think this is a very favorable announcement. It's something that we've been asking for the last 12 to 16 months. And I think most importantly, we now have our Prime Minister speaking about softwood lumber. And we would view that as a very significant event compared to the previous administration. So overall, we're pleased with what was announced this week.

[Sean Steuart, analyst]

And then with respect to the Columbia Vista insurance claim, I guess, for the equipment and this interruption. Glen, can you give us some perspective on how that process plays out in terms of timing? And I don't know if you can put a dollar magnitude around anything. But broader perspective on how you expect that will evolve over the next little while.

[Glen Nontell, executive]

Yes. Thanks, Sean. Yes, we're working through the process with their insurer and the adjuster, that process takes time, but we're obviously trying to accelerate that process as much as we can given we understand the impact it has on people.

From an insurance perspective, I'd say, Sean, that we have adequate coverage, both from an asset perspective and a business interruption perspective. So we feel quite comfortable that whatever the determination after the investigation is completed that we have sufficient coverage for those assets in any business interruption that may occur.

[J. Hofer, executive]

And Sean, maybe I'll just add one more comment about Columbia Vista. Obviously, that mill was a key supplier into the Japanese market. We're very fortunate that we have other cell facilities that can take on that order file. So we do not expect any disruption into the Japanese market for our key kiln-dried Douglas Fir products that Columbia Vista historically made. So that's good news for our key long-term strategic customers in Japan that moving forward, there will be no supply disruptions there.

[Operator]

The next question is from Ben Isaacson from Scotiabank.

[Ben Isaacson, analyst]

Thank you very much. Just 2 questions for me. Just the first one is on your press release. You get the list of lumber prices. And a lot of those are actually all but one of those lumber prices increased sequentially quarter-over-quarter. Your lumber price went down. And so can you just triangulate that? Was that a mix issue?

[Glen Nontell, executive]

Yes, Dan, it's Glen. Yes. I mean, obviously, we have many SKUs of products. The listing we provide in our MD&A is just a sample of some of the key products. And to your comment there, you look at it individually and a lot of them are going up. I think the one that maybe also as weighting is commodity went down quarter-over-quarter, which is about 50% of our mix. So it's really mix driver there, then if you're looking -- trying to compare the list of prices relative to the average selling price of our overall mix.

[Ben Isaacson, analyst]

Okay. And then back to the Columbia Vista. If you can supply that lumber from another mill, what is the rationale for rebuilding it, unless the cost differential is quite meaningful?

[J. Hofer, executive]

Thank you. Yes, that's a very good question. And Ben, and certainly something that we think about as we contemplate the future of Columbia Vista. If we think about what a revised operating platform would look like there, there would probably have a little bit more automation in the mill. It would have some greater product flexibility in order to supply some of the key timber markets in North America. And ultimately, a footprint that would be more automated, lower cost and create a product flexibility. So it was a very compact mill site that had a very specific product line associated with the equipment. So we'd be looking for a little bit more flexibility and probably a higher percentage of the product targeted to our key timber markets in North America.

[Operator]

The next question is from Matthew McKellar from RBC Capital Markets.

[Matthew McKellar, analyst]

First for me, I think there had been in BC some discussion about reducing permanent time lines. It sounds like you're continuing to see some delays, but do you have a sense of things are getting any better regarding time lines over the past couple of months?

[J. Hofer, executive]

Thanks, Matt. That's a bit of a loaded question. I think overall, inside some of our key limited partnerships, the permitting process has improved. And that's really some of the background motivation for us to move into these key strategic partnerships on some of the TFLs. But I would characterize the permitting issue in British Columbia to still be problematic. And I don't think our situation on the coast is much different than what we see up in the BC interior. We do have active conversations and dialogue going on directly with the Minister of Forest and his key Deputy Minister and associate Deputy Ministers and really just trying to drive to a different outcome around the permitting challenge and time frames associated with having permits approved. So inside the limited partnerships, that's going pretty well outside the limits of partnerships, challenges continue to exist.

[Matthew McKellar, analyst]

And last from me, looking a little further out, are you optimistic about what discussions around an energy corridor in Canada could mean for your industrial lumber business and maybe match that product in particular?

[J. Hofer, executive]

Yes, we like the -- any discussion around additional pipelines being proposed all across Canada. We produce a fair amount of material, both in 2-inch map stock as well as in 6-inch and 12-inch, the larger crane that type product line. So today, we have a very solid order file in all those product categories. We have seen some price appreciation occur as well. And yes, we would take any of those announcements as very favorable to our industrial product lines. We primarily manufacture the Saltair facility as well as at the Duke Point facility.

[Matthew McKellar, analyst]

Thank you very much. I'll turn it back.

[Operator]

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I would like to turn the meeting back over to Mr. Hofer.

[J. Hofer, executive]

Well, thanks, everyone, for joining our call today. We appreciate your continued interest in our company, and we look forward to our next call in November. Thank you, and have a great weekend.

[Operator]

Thank you. The conference has now ended. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you for your participation.