Arthur J Gallagher & Co
NYSE:AJG
DCF Value
This DCF valuation model was created by
Alpha Spread
and was last updated on
May 31, 2023.
Estimated DCF Value of one
AJG
stock is
151.5
USD.
Compared to the current market price of 203.52 USD, the stock is
Overvalued by 26%.
Present Value Calculation
The first step in the DCF calculation process is to estimate the company's future free cash flow. Once free cash flow is forecasted, it is discounted at a risk-appropriate discount rate. The resulting value is the present value of the company's free cash flow. You can change any model inputs below.
DCF Model
Base Case Scenario
To view the process of deriving the DCF Value of one share from the estimated Present Value, see the DCF Value Calculation block.
DCF Value Calculation
Depending on which type of operating model is chosen (equity or whole firm valuation model), the resulting value is either the value of equity or the value of the entire firm. In the case of the latter, to move from the value of the firm to the value of equity, liabilities are subtracted and assets are added.
Capital Structure
From Present Value to DCF Value
| Present Value | 38.4B USD |
| + Cash & Equivalents | 342M USD |
| Firm Value | 38.7B USD |
| - Debt | 5.8B USD |
| - Minority Interest | 46.6M USD |
| Equity Value | 32.9B USD |
| / Shares Outstanding | 217M |
| AJG DCF Value | 151.5 USD |
To view the process of calculating the Present Value of Arthur J Gallagher & Co' future free cash flow, see the Present Value Calculation block.
Valuation Analysis
After the valuation process, in order to gain a deeper understanding of the relationship between risk and opportunity, it is useful to study the dynamic of company's valuation under various inputs to the DCF model in use.
DCF Financials
Financials used in DCF Calculation
Sensitivity Analysis
DCF Value Sensitivity Analysis
Estimated DCF Value of one
AJG
stock is
151.5
USD.
Compared to the current market price of 203.52 USD, the stock is
Overvalued by 26%.
The true DCF Value lies somewhere between the worst-case and best-case scenario values. This is because the future is not predetermined, and the stock's DCF Value is based almost entirely on the future of the company. Knowing the full range of possible stock DCF values gives a complete picture of the investment risks and opportunities.
1. Present Value Calculation. Using the DCF Operating Model we project
Arthur J Gallagher & Co's future free cash flow and discount it at a selected discount rate to calculate its
Present Value (38.4B USD).
2. DCF Value Calculation. We use the company's capital structure to calculate the total Equity Value based on the previously computed Present Value of the free cash flow. Dividing the Equity Value by the number of shares outstanding gives us the DCF Value of
151.5 USD
per one
AJG
share.
Sensibly Priced Quality
Significantly Undervalued
Magic Formula
High Growth
