Enterprise Products Partners LP
NYSE:EPD

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Enterprise Products Partners LP
NYSE:EPD
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Price: 32.61 USD Market Closed
Market Cap: 70.5B USD

Q2-2025 Earnings Call

AI Summary
Earnings Call on Jul 28, 2025

Solid Quarter: Enterprise delivered a strong Q2 performance despite seasonal, macro, and geopolitical challenges, with adjusted EBITDA of $2.4 billion and distributable cash flow of $1.9 billion.

Distribution Growth: The company declared a Q2 distribution of $0.545 per unit, up 3.8% from last year, and maintained a healthy coverage ratio of 1.6x.

Growth Projects: Nearly $6 billion in organic growth projects are coming online, including new Permian gas plants and the Natus River terminal, with these assets expected to ramp quickly.

LPG Market Pressure: LPG export spot fees dropped by 60% year-over-year, compressing margins, but Enterprise remains 85–90% contracted through the decade to support volume and stability.

Capital Allocation: Buybacks accelerated in Q2; management expects even more share repurchases as free cash flow increases in 2026.

Permian Outlook: Management remains optimistic about the Permian, expecting continued gas growth and profitability, and sees producer guidance holding steady.

Guidance Unchanged: Growth and sustaining capital guidance for 2025 and 2026 remains unchanged, with a focus on bolt-on expansion and disciplined capital return.

Quarterly Financial Performance

Enterprise reported another solid quarter, achieving $2.4 billion in adjusted EBITDA and $1.9 billion in distributable cash flow. Net income per unit grew 3% year-over-year, and the distribution per unit increased by 3.8%. The coverage ratio remained healthy at 1.6x, and the company retained a significant portion of cash flow.

Growth Projects & Capacity Expansion

Nearly $6 billion in organic growth projects are entering service, including new gas processing plants in the Permian, expanded pipeline and fractionation capacity, and the Natus River ethane export terminal. These assets are expected to ramp up quickly, with high utilization projected for most facilities.

LPG and NGL Export Market Dynamics

LPG export spot rates fell sharply, causing a $37 million drop in gross operating margin despite increased volumes. Contracted volumes remain high (85–90% through decade-end), helping stabilize the business amid competitive pressure. Management highlighted the benefits of brownfield expansions and their established export infrastructure.

Permian Basin & Supply Outlook

Management expressed confidence in the Permian's continued growth, citing strong producer profitability, stable or increasing well activity, and a shift to gassier benches. They expect production and associated gathering and processing volumes to remain strong, countering bearish sector forecasts.

Capital Allocation & Buybacks

In Q2, Enterprise accelerated buybacks in response to unit price volatility and expects further buybacks as free cash flow rises in 2026. The company has returned $4.9 billion to equity holders over the past year and continues to prioritize capital returns alongside disciplined growth investment.

Market and Regulatory Risks

Recent export controls and tariffs, particularly affecting ethane exports to China, have disrupted some customer relationships and supply reliability perceptions. Despite these events, the company managed through the disruptions and continues to diversify export destinations.

Cost Discipline & Guidance

Growth and sustaining capital guidance for 2025 and 2026 remains unchanged. Management reiterated a focus on bolt-on projects, brownfield expansions, and maintaining a strong capital structure, with leverage at 3.1x and a large proportion of fixed-rate debt.

PDH, Octane, and Margin Trends

PDH operating rates improved versus last quarter, although not yet at target levels. Octane enhancement margins normalized after a period of elevated returns, reflecting increased supply and ongoing competition from China. Management expects these businesses to remain stable but less lucrative than in recent years.

Adjusted EBITDA
$2.4 billion
No Additional Information
Distributable Cash Flow
$1.9 billion
Change: Up $127 million or 7%.
Net Income Attributable to Common Unitholders
$1.4 billion
No Additional Information
Net Income per Common Unit
$0.66
Change: Up 3% YoY.
Distribution per Common Unit
$0.545
Change: Up 3.8% YoY.
Distribution Coverage Ratio
1.6x
No Additional Information
Retained Distributable Cash Flow
$748 million
No Additional Information
Total Capital Investments
$1.3 billion
No Additional Information
Growth Capital Expenditures
$1.2 billion
Guidance: $4–4.5 billion for 2025; $2–2.5 billion for 2026.
Sustaining Capital Expenditures
$117 million
Guidance: approximately $525 million for 2025.
Total Debt Principal Outstanding
$33.1 billion
No Additional Information
Weighted Average Cost of Debt
4.7%
No Additional Information
Debt Fixed Rate Percentage
98%
No Additional Information
Consolidated Liquidity
$5.1 billion
No Additional Information
Consolidated Leverage
3.1x
Guidance: target of 3x ± 0.25 turns.
Total Capital Return (12 months)
$4.9 billion
No Additional Information
Payout Ratio (Adjusted Cash Flow from Operations)
57%
No Additional Information
Buybacks (Q2 2025)
$110 million
Guidance: $200–300 million for 2025.
Buybacks (Last 12 months)
$309 million
No Additional Information
Employees, Retirees & Families Unit Ownership (at 12/31/24)
over 40 million EPD units
No Additional Information
Adjusted EBITDA
$2.4 billion
No Additional Information
Distributable Cash Flow
$1.9 billion
Change: Up $127 million or 7%.
Net Income Attributable to Common Unitholders
$1.4 billion
No Additional Information
Net Income per Common Unit
$0.66
Change: Up 3% YoY.
Distribution per Common Unit
$0.545
Change: Up 3.8% YoY.
Distribution Coverage Ratio
1.6x
No Additional Information
Retained Distributable Cash Flow
$748 million
No Additional Information
Total Capital Investments
$1.3 billion
No Additional Information
Growth Capital Expenditures
$1.2 billion
Guidance: $4–4.5 billion for 2025; $2–2.5 billion for 2026.
Sustaining Capital Expenditures
$117 million
Guidance: approximately $525 million for 2025.
Total Debt Principal Outstanding
$33.1 billion
No Additional Information
Weighted Average Cost of Debt
4.7%
No Additional Information
Debt Fixed Rate Percentage
98%
No Additional Information
Consolidated Liquidity
$5.1 billion
No Additional Information
Consolidated Leverage
3.1x
Guidance: target of 3x ± 0.25 turns.
Total Capital Return (12 months)
$4.9 billion
No Additional Information
Payout Ratio (Adjusted Cash Flow from Operations)
57%
No Additional Information
Buybacks (Q2 2025)
$110 million
Guidance: $200–300 million for 2025.
Buybacks (Last 12 months)
$309 million
No Additional Information
Employees, Retirees & Families Unit Ownership (at 12/31/24)
over 40 million EPD units
No Additional Information

Earnings Call Transcript

Transcript
from 0
Operator

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Enterprise Products Partners L.P Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]

I would now like to hand the call over to Libby Strait, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

L
Libby Strait
executive

Good morning, and welcome to the Enterprise Products Partners conference call to discuss second quarter 2025 earnings. Our speakers today will be Co-Chief Executive Officers of Enterprise's General Partner, Jim Teague and Randy Fowler. Other members of our senior management team are also in attendance for the call today. During this call, we will make forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 based on the beliefs of the company as well as assumptions made by and information currently available to Enterprise's management team.

Although management believes that the expectations reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable, it can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct. Please refer to our latest filings with the SEC for a list of factors that may cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements made during this call.

With that, I'll turn it over to Jim.

A
A. Teague
executive

Thank you, Libby. Despite facing considerable headwinds, we delivered another good performance this quarter. Seasonally, the second quarter is always tough. But this time, we also face macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges.

Today, we reported adjusted EBITDA of $2.4 billion, $1.9 billion of distributable cash flow, about 1.6x coverage, and we retained $740 million of DCF. We set 5 volumetric records for the quarter, processed 7.8 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day, moved 20 billion cubic feet per day through our natural gas pipeline network.

We transported over 1 million barrels per day of refined products and petrochemicals. And we have even more plant frac and dock capacity coming online over the next 18 months. We've got nearly $6 billion worth of organic growth projects entering service. That includes 2 gas processing plants in the Permian that are ramping as we speak and a third plant that is expected to start up in the first part of next year.

Altogether, these 3 plants will bring our total Permian processing capacity to almost 5 Bcf a day, producing 650,000 barrels a day of liquids. In the fourth quarter, we expect to start up the 600,000 barrel per day by Y-grade pipeline and our frac port team these investments bring more volumes into our NGL value chain.

We started operations at our Natus River terminal. Initially, the facility will have the capacity load ethane at 120,000 barrels a day. In the first half of 2026, the facility will be fully operational or the commissioning of a second train that is a flex train. This expansion will increase its capacity by an additional 180,000 barrels a day of ethane and 360,000 barrels a day of propane. This past quarter was dominated by headlines about tariffs and trade many of this being close to home, especially regarding [indiscernible] and LPG.

We managed to navigate these disruptions. That said, we've been clear about the risk of recognizing U.S. energy exports. These kind of actions rarely hurt the intended target and often backfire hurting our own industry more. We're fortunate this administration understands the importance of energy and global trade even if the commerce department may need a little reminder. Unfortunately, we could face similar challenges in the future. We are growing rumors and midstream companies planning to enter the LPG export market.

However, this space has become increasingly competitive, and the impact is already evident. Just a year ago, spot terminal fees range from $0.10 to $0.15 per gallon that is no longer the case. In the second quarter, our LPG export volumes rose by 5 million barrels quarter-to-quarter, yet our gross operating margin declined by 37 million. This was driven by the recontracting of a legacy 10-year double-digit term agreement to current market pricing and by a 60% drop in spot rates. Although increased throughput across our Houston Ship Channel pipeline system, help mitigate the decline. It doesn't change the fact that this market has fundamentally shifted. Despite the challenges, however, we remain well positioned to succeed. Our competitive advantage from our existing export infrastructure enables us to make customer needs through brownfield expansions, where new build economics simply don't work, and we will aggressively depend our position.

The appetite for U.S. ethane and ethylene remains strong in both Asia and Europe. As to octane enhancement, we've seen margins normalize, after a few years of outsized earnings, but the business remains healthy. Lower margins are a product of new supply in the market, not winning demand. [indiscernible] is a supply-driven business, and our network of assets reflect that. The majority of our capital projects currently understored construction directly support our supply strategy, which applies in the whole story. What sets us apart is our extensive connectivity to end users.

We are directly or indirectly linked. The 100% of the ethylene plants in the U.S. and 90% of the refineries east of the Rockies. Our export business continues to be a key part of our strategy. With the addition of the Natus River terminal expanded LPG loading at EHT, and increased ethylene export capability at Morgan's Point. We've taken the deliberate step [indiscernible], enhance and expand our downstream footprint, strengthening our access to global markets.

And with that, Randy, I'll turn it over to you.

W
W. Fowler
executive

Okay. Thank you, Jim. Good morning, everyone.

Starting with the income statement. Net income attributable to common unitholders was $1.4 billion for both the second quarter of 2025 and 2024. Net income to common unit holders on a per unit basis increased 3% to $0.66 per common unit in the second quarter of 2025 compared to $0.64 per common unit for the second quarter of last year, both on a fully diluted basis.

Adjusted cash flow from operations, that is cash flow from operations before changes in working capital was $2.1 billion for both the second quarters of 2025 and 2024. Distributable cash flow increased $127 million or 7%, $1.9 billion for the second quarter of 2025, primarily due to lower sustaining capital expenditures compared to last year that had a higher level due to modifications and a turnaround at PDH 1.

Distributable cash flow provided 1.6x coverage of the distribution declared for the second quarter this year and Enterprise retained $748 million of distributable cash flow. For the last 12 months, the partnership has retained $3.4 billion of distributable cash flow. We declared a distribution of $0.545 per common unit for the second quarter of 2025, which is a 3.8% increase over the distribution declared for the second quarter of 2024. The distribution will be paid August 14 to common unitholders of record as of the close of business on July 31. In the second quarter, the partnership purchased approximately 3.6 million common units off the open market for $110 million.

Total repurchases for the 12 months ended June 30, 2025, were $309 million or approximately 10 million common units, bringing total purchases under our $2 billion buyback program to approximately $1.3 billion. In addition to buybacks, our distribution reinvestment plan and employee unit purchase plan just a combined 5.5 million common units on the open market of $171 million during the last 12 months, including 1.3 million common units on the open market for $41 million during the second quarter I've highlighted on past calls that almost 50% of our employees participate in the employee unit purchase plan.

We did some analysis using our 2024 K-1s at December 31, 2024, as a group, our employees, retirees and their families owned over 40 million EPD units or almost 2% of outstanding units and made them our second largest unitholder after privately held EFCO at year-end. For the 12 months ending June 30, 2025, enterprise paid out approximately $4.6 billion in distributions to limited partners combined with $309 million of common unit purchases over the same period, Enterprise's total capital return was $4.9 billion, resulting in a payout ratio of adjusted cash flow from operations of 57%.

Total capital investments in the second quarter of 2025 were $1.3 billion, which included $1.2 billion for growth capital projects and $117 million of sustaining capital expenditures. Our expected range of growth capital expenditures for 2025 and 2026 remain unchanged and at $4 billion to $4.5 billion for 2025 and $2 to $2.5 billion for 2026.

We continue to expect 2025 sustaining capital expenditures to be approximately $525 million. Our total debt principal outstanding was approximately $33.1 billion as of June 30, 2025, assuming the final maturity date for our hybrids, the weighted average life of our debt portfolio was approximately 8 hours.

Our weighted average cost of debt was 4.7% and approximately 98% of our debt was fixed rate. At June 30, 2025, our consolidated liquidity was approximately $5.1 billion including availability under our credit facilities and unrestricted cash on hand. Our adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter was $2.4 billion, and for the last 12 months was $9.9 billion. As of June 30, 2025, our consolidated leverage was 3.1x on a net basis after adjusting our debt for the partial equity treatment of our hybrid debt and reduced the partnership's unrestricted cash on hand. Our leverage target remains at 3x plus or minus 0.25 turns.

With that, Libby, I think we can open it up for questions.

L
Libby Strait
executive

Thank you. Operator, we are ready to open the call for questions.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Spiro Dounis of Citi.

T
Terry Hurlburt
executive

First question, I just want to maybe take a look at the second half of 25%. Jim, you mentioned about $6 billion of assets coming online in the second half. Just curious -- how should we think about the ramp-up of those assets? Are there a lot of volumes behind the systems? Should we expect these processing plants to come online pretty full as well?

A
A. Teague
executive

Zach, what would be your ramp-up on [indiscernible].

Z
Zach Strait
executive

[indiscernible] will come up completely full. NRT will see a ramp as VLECs are ordered and not only can chime in, but I think the processing plants are going to have a pretty quick ramp to them as well.

U
Unknown Executive

Yes. That's right. Delaware and Midland combined is probably around a 90% utilization today. But remember, we just brought those 2 plants up -- by the end of the year, fourth quarter, mainly driven [indiscernible]

A
A. Teague
executive

Wilbert here come up at. Yes.

U
Unknown Executive

But he should come up probably around 50%, first 12 months, probably closer to 60%. Again, that's middle of fourth quarter startup, so you won't get a full quarter's contribution to the first quarter of next year.

S
Spiro Dounis
analyst

Got it. Got it. All very helpful. Second question, maybe just shifting to capital allocation, stepped up the buyback a little bit this quarter. I imagine that was in response to just some volatility in the price. But as we sort of look forward, you're still sort of holding off that $2 billion to $2.5 billion for 2026.

So I wonder now as we're approaching that time frame, do you start ratcheting up the buyback in anticipation of 2026 being a lean year? Or really not until we get into it, do we see any sort of, let's call it, step change in the buyback program.

W
W. Fowler
executive

Spiro, this is Randy. We had said actually last quarter that our expectation this year was we would probably do anywhere from $200 million to $300 million of buybacks. You're right in the second quarter, we did see some volatility. And so we picked up the pace of purchases and I think we'll continue to be opportunistic for the remainder of this year.

I think the larger opportunity for the buybacks will come in 2026. As we really start rolling off much more free cash flow.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jean Ann Salisbury of BofA.

J
Jean Ann Salisbury
analyst

I wanted to go back to some of Jim's commentary on the call. LPG export fees have fallen, pipeline and frac might be overbuilt as well and have some pressure there. How do you see this evolving? And how will enterprise balance defending market share with kind of maintaining your excellent return on capital?

U
Unknown Executive

this is Doug. So it's -- from our perspective, specifically on LPGs, we stay in 85% and 90% contracted through the balance of the decade. And as far as our strategy, probably using brownfield economics over here, it's all bolt-on infrastructure. So it allows us to be extremely competitive to continue to get term contracts, which we continue to sign up additional counterparties, and we'll continue to do so.

A
A. Teague
executive

Jean, the other thing I think is important is that export facility as a way of being a magnet for our pipelines and our fractionators and our storage.

J
Jean Ann Salisbury
analyst

That makes sense. And then I think as my follow-up, it's probably for Tony. There's obviously a lot of concern about potentially slowing oil growth in the Permian next year. if oil growth does slow down or even is flat next year, do you see the rate of gas to oil ratio growth changing, if at all? And how do you think about that?

U
Unknown Executive

I think I'll than about that question. First and foremost, we believe the Permian Basin producers have been and will always be looking for oil. That said, they've been drilling about 5,000 locations a year for the last several years. So I would say it's clear that the easiest in oil is locations for the most part have been drilled up.

Thus, we have been and we will be drilling gassier benches, and we've talked about that for the last year or two. You add to that, that oil naturally declines faster than natural gas does. And we have this very large PDP and very large and growing PDP base in the Permian. So Jean, any way you cut it, all signs point to the Permian Basin continuing to get cashier really for years to come. There's no question about it.

I think we're on the topic of the Permian, maybe I'll just talk about how we see the Permian if maybe this is a good time to talk about it.

Because there's been a lot question.

What's that?

J
Jean Ann Salisbury
analyst

It's a great time, Tony.

U
Unknown Executive

Okay. There's a lot that's happened over the last 60 to 90 days First and foremost, OPEC has abandoned their long-standing market stability roll in favor of market share and on the way to put a couple of 2 million barrels of incremental production on in just a 6-month time period.

That's a lot. And then we had the Israel and Iran conflict breakout to a full fledge war and all the oil facilities in Iran and throughout the Middle East [indiscernible]. So thus, we had the word premium taken out. So all that being said, there's a lot of pressure 1 could see on oil. Meanwhile, we're sitting here in summer driving season around the world and strong demand in the Middle East.

So the question is, when the strong demand end, summer driving season ins and Middle East quick using all the oil for electrical generation, what happens to oil and I guess, Jean respectfully, I see there's a lot of people that are -- that have some pretty dire forecast. And we feel differently, and I think I'll just point out the reason we feel differently is OPEC has been shorting the market, at least 2 million barrels a day for 2 years running and more on top of that.

So there is a massive hold to be able to put oil into when and if the price drops -- so assuming we have a price drop and we moved from backwardation to contango, oil is going to get a signal to trade into storage, and that's the way we see it. So we're probably not as bearish on price, although we don't have to call price. We're not as bearish as others. But from a fundamental standpoint, I will say we're not as bearish as others. So what does that mean for U.S. producers? We had a brief period where we touched $57. But we're at 65% this morning.

And really, when you look at '26, '27 all the way out to '30 we're at $62 to $63. For the Permian producer, which is where we're focused with our assets, you had the improvement in gas basis because in new pipelines to take away and really Permian producers bottom line is extremely profitable. So I think what we're going to see during earnings season for producers is you're going to see them hold their guidance and not go down where others are saying the Permian is going to be flat to down. We just don't believe that's going to happen.

You'll see them hold their guidance for the year, and you'll see that they've been aggressive on the hedging '25, '26 and maybe even some of them '27. From a fundamental standpoint, that's how we see it Natalie. What are you seeing? Are we?

N
Natalie Gayden
executive

Yes, we are not hearing anything different than we always spoke to in our last earnings call. We actually did get a surprise from 1 of our producers who brought wells forward in 2026 in our production plans. There are a few production areas, too, in our portfolio where it's not declining as expected. And obviously leave you with this, in Midland, this year, we will have brought on 463 wells. Next year, we are -- we will -- we have 498 on the schedule. Just to give you some color.

Operator

-

Our next question comes from the line of Theresa Chen of Barclays.

T
Theresa Chen
analyst

I want to go back to the topic of NGL exports. And Specifically, what are the lessons we learned from the BIS ethane incident during the second quarter? Do you think the views of your customers, suppliers and other stakeholders on U.S. ethane exports to China? Do you think those you have structurally changed as a result of this event? And if so, are you likely going to try to find alternate markets or end uses for incremental ethane exports from here?

A
A. Teague
executive

Doug, do you want to take it?

U
Unknown Executive

Yes. So if you look at what happened with the BIS requiring export license effectively for ethane, I will say -- we were largely unscathed at enterprise, but I'll remind you that we have a lot of international exposure to other countries other than China, call it, Vietnam, Thailand, India, Europe, Mexico, Brazil. But if it was going to be sustained, I could see if there's any a challenge for ethane structurally here in the U.S. But what it has done and where it's been a problem if you really compromise the U.S. brand for reliable supply and energy security when you just cut off a counterparty like that.

In fact, I would tell you -- we had a non-Chinese based company that we're in discussions with about contracting ethane with. And they've now since made a decision to contract naphtha, which is supplied globally versus is coming to the U.S. to get get ethane. So from that perspective, it's been disruptive, but in the short term, we were able to manage through it with our diverse contract mix.

T
Theresa Chen
analyst

And then within the Pecan and Refined Products Services segment, what's your forward outlook for PDH as well as what is your view for whether it be the second half or into 2026 about these spread-based businesses. Can you touch a little bit on the incremental supply you see Optane that will persist from here?

C
Christian Nelly
executive

Yes. Sure, Theresa. This is Chris. As far as PDHs go, our operating rates have improved quite a bit versus the first quarter. That being said, we're still not happy, and we haven't met expectations about what our onstream time should be. As far as our beef and octane enhancement goes. We've had really a record last 3 years of high margins.

And as Jim touched on in the opening remarks, we've kind of returned to historic kind of margin. So they're still really good. I mean it's still some of the best margins we have in the company, but it's not what we have had historically. That being said, so far for the month of July, the we've seen margins improve just part of that will probably be in driving season. We still see the pressure from China. Historically, MTBE was more of a regionally regional market where occasionally, you would see some cargoes coming from Europe or from Asia. And occasionally, we would send some cargoes to Europe or Asia. But by and large, it was regional that's changed with all the additional capacity coming on from China. And we started seeing that pressure, and that's some of the reason why we've seen some weakness.

Operator

Our next question comes from John Mackay of Goldman Sachs.

J
John Mackay
analyst

I want to go back to the margin compression conversation. I think the narrative around the LPG exports Hub is clear. I guess if you could just comment, where do you stand in that process for repricing down those LPG exports? Is that kind of in there now? Or is there maybe a little bit more to work through? And then maybe any comment you can make on a related side for anywhere else in the portfolio or particularly the Permian NGL pipes.

A
A. Teague
executive

I'll take it and then Doug you take it. I think you heard Doug say we're 85%, 90% contracted on LPG exports through the end of decade. We're going to be full here and simple, and we'll defend it ever how we have to. And Doug, you got anything to add other than [indiscernible] to be full?

U
Unknown Executive

No. We are full, we're in a continued contract pool, but I'll just tell you that we're still executing contracts. So whatever we're going to leave on margin compression we're going to make up by volume.

J
John Mackay
analyst

And then just anything you can add on the Permian NGL pipe side?

U
Unknown Executive

John, this is Justin. I would say generally on TNF, we have very little recontracting to work through to the balance of the decade. At our core, we still expect production to grow. So long as supply growth is happening, we don't expect recontracting to play a role because we're going to continue to see volumes increase.

Operator

Our next question comes from Michael Blum from Wells Fargo.

M
Michael Blum
analyst

I've been reading a little bit about potentially an uptick in activity in the San Juan Basin. I'm just wondering if there's much to that. Are you seeing anything different from your producer customers up there? And could that have a meaningful impact for you guys?

U
Unknown Executive

Not, necessarily where we are located, I guess, the uptick in activity. I don't know if you're talking about the recent acquisition of a player there. But as far as we can tell, our [indiscernible] pretty stable flat to slight really small growth.

M
Michael Blum
analyst

Okay. Great. I appreciate that. And then just maybe just a follow-up for Tony. I appreciate all the commentary -- is it fair to say, if I think back to your -- I think it was like April 1, updated production forecast if you had to tweak that today, there would be pretty minor tweaks to what you were seeing back in April.

U
Unknown Executive

Michael, that's a great question. I really appreciate it. Yes, there -- if we had to tweak it today, given the given the profitability of the Permian producer, those tweaks would be small. So from a black oil standpoint, we were calling from 25 through 27, I think we were calling for 800,000 barrels of growth.

Could that be 7 Yes, certainly could. If prices did go through a low spot, if we had a fall in prices and we go into contango, and then waiting for people to start storing could that be a growth of 6%. I guess on the outside, it could look, we think we grew 350 last year. So when producers talk about their guidance as we all listen to their calls coming, Michael, and they say they're going to stick to their guidance and their guidance was 3% to 5% growth in the Permian as a general rule.

It's not hard math. It's -- I think we're on target, Michael. I think we're on target. And we've said before that liquids forecast is is on target to meet our forecast or producers continue to drill gas here. So we feel great about our [indiscernible] forecast also. And then Natalie confirmed and Justin is confirmed, Zach is confirmed. That's what we're seeing in the business. We're just not a sky is falling scenario. Look, the Permian producer is extremely profitable, especially when you look at what's happened to natural gas basis out there.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Manav Gupta of UBS.

M
Manav Gupta
analyst

There are a lot of announcements on potential LNG projects and there is a belief that [indiscernible] could be supplying some of them. Can you talk about your leverage to the Haynesville shale, maybe talk about the Acadian gas system little.

U
Unknown Executive

So our [indiscernible] gas system, we actually went out for open season on our recontracting efforts on that pipeline, actually timing is everything and came up at the right time. So the rates we're going to achieve on that pipe relative to historical is 2 to 3x what we've seen before.

So a little bit more increase in activity, obviously, in the Haynesville with a price of gas, and we'll reap benefits from that.

M
Manav Gupta
analyst

Okay. And quickly, since your CapEx is dropping. Can you talk about the criteria you could possibly look at for possible and bolt-on opportunities as a company.

W
W. Fowler
executive

Yes. No, I think when we came in and sort of gave future guidance of $2 billion to $2.5 billion, that's really taking into consideration some organic growth that we could see in our system in the coming years, whether it's additional processing plants in the Permian or something more on the distribution side of the downstream part of our system.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Keith Stanley of Wolfe Research. Keith?

K
Keith Stanley
analyst

I want to clarify some of the earlier questions around LPG exports. So you're 85% to 90% contracted through the end of the decade. Given that, is it fair to assume the more meaningful recontracting headwinds on margins are now over with at this point?

U
Unknown Executive

This is Doug. That is correct.

K
Keith Stanley
analyst

Okay. Great. And then I had 1 on Natus River. So the major projects under construction bucket went down $2 billion from $7.6 million to $5.6 million. It looks like that's 2 processing plants and Phase 1 of the export facility. That implies the capital cost could be maybe $1 billion or more for Phase 1 of Nature River. Am I thinking about that right, just as a ballpark?

U
Unknown Executive

Yes, that's in the ballpark.

K
Keith Stanley
analyst

Okay. would Phase 2 be similar to that?

U
Unknown Executive

Not that much.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Brandon Bingham

of Scotia Bank.

B
Brandon Bingham
analyst

I'd like to go back to capital allocation, if we could, and maybe ask on the inorganic side in a different way. Just given all of the cash in that you guys have, and you have your priorities outlined pretty clearly, would you consider maybe increasing activity and equity investments potentially into areas where you currently do not participate or operate any assets maybe like in LNG? Or just how should we think about all of the cash gen moving forward?

U
Unknown Executive

I imagine Randy is going to try to give it to you guys.

W
W. Fowler
executive

Yes, Brandon, I don't see us -- and I'm trying to read where you're going with your question is are you asking would we make passive equity investments in LNG facilities.

B
Brandon Bingham
analyst

Right. Like taking taken a non-op stake or an equity interest or just another way to deploy capital that maybe hasn't been discussed?

A
A. Teague
executive

No.

B
Brandon Bingham
analyst

Yes. Fair enough. And then maybe just on 2026 growth spend, could you remind us how much is currently committed? And then where do you see the most pressing need to deploy capital? Or maybe ask another way, where is the greatest opportunity across your operations right now?

W
W. Fowler
executive

Yes. I think when we look at that in 2026, that range of $2 billion to $2.5 billion, what's committed is approximately $2.2 billion.

A
A. Teague
executive

And where we go. I really like what we've done in terms of our ethylene. If I look back a few years, we didn't have anything in ethylene.

Now we've got a pretty robust storage distribution an export system and those fees are cents per pound, not sense per gallon.

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Jason Gabelman of TD Cowen.

J
Jason Gabelman
analyst

I'm afraid I'm going to ask another 1 on LPG exports. And trying to understand it more from a strategic standpoint, given the amount of build-out that the industry is pursuing on LPG exports. Have your upstream customers kind of told you that you need to more or less have that egress to compete for additional volumes from them.

So is this LPG export build kind of driven by what the customer needs and to keep you competitive in contracting with those customers?

U
Unknown Executive

I can't -- this is Doug. I can't speak for what our competitors are doing relative to their CapEx or how much it cost them to build these greenfield facilities. I can just tell you the success we've had on contracting with our brownfield economics, it's there. You have to remind yourself as well that Enterprise Mont Belvieu is the pricing point for call it, over 95% of total NGL production in the United States, and that's another competitive advantage we have, and our customers are here to continue to take the LPG exports from our facility at a competitive fee.

A
A. Teague
executive

I think it's worth noting that we've been dealing in the international market since 1983 when we put in an import facility and since 1999 when we built our export facility. We've created a lot of strong relationships, and we've performed. So I don't think -- I think we've got a rather sticky customer base tied to what we've been able to do in the past.

J
Jason Gabelman
analyst

Okay. And my follow-up is, unfortunately, a topic that has also been already asked on, which is capital allocation. And I guess the question is the midstream sector broadly has had multiple expansion given all of the growth opportunities that they've been pursuing over the past couple of years. And as you think about capital allocation moving forward, how important is it to continue to have a robust growth backlog that really competes with other companies in the industry to continue to attract equity investment. And how much -- does that kind of frame your strategic decisions on capital allocation moving forward?

U
Unknown Executive

Do you want to take it?

W
W. Fowler
executive

Yes. Let me... I think, first, we feel like we're in a good place, the basins that we operate in, focus on the Permian, focus on the Haynesville. The sectors that we support the downstream sector, petchem is a little soft right now. But again, they'll cycle through this. So we like our footprint. We like where we are. We think we'll have bolt-on opportunities from an organic standpoint and an organic standpoint as opportunities arise.

When you come back in, especially over the last 2024 and 2025. Our CapEx did step up. A lot of that was a step change in capacity to be able to come in and be able to support the growth of our E&P customers coming out of the Permian. I think we're in good shape there. I think we've got some low-cost expansions that we can do on some of those assets that are coming into service. And we're here for the next couple of years anyway, at that $2 billion, $2.5 billion.

Our job is to keep our system reliable, keep it up, and we should throw off a lot of cash flow from those businesses and where we see opportunities to deploy it, we will. But honestly, I think discretionary free cash flow is really about to take a a step-up in 2026, 2027, and that will give us an opportunity to come and return more capital to our investors.

Operator

Thank you. I would now like to turn the conference back to Libby Strait for closing remarks. Madam?

L
Libby Strait
executive

Thank you to our participants for joining us today. That concludes our remarks. Have a good day.

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

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