Rheinmetall AG

XETRA:RHM

Q1-2025 Earnings Call

[Carl-Philip Schniewind, executive]

Hello. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. I'm Carl-Philip Schniewind. I'm IR Manager at Rheinmetall, and I'm going to host you today for our analyst recap call.

Please be reminded that this is just a summary of public information that we have previously provided or that is otherwise available in the market. We will not provide any new information or commentary on current events. Tomorrow, as the start of our quiet period, I will guide you a bit through some topics. And at the end, there's time for a short Q&A.

So as we already said during our full year 2024 analyst call a month ago, we expect Rheinmetall Nomination of around EUR 12 billion. This is a strong start, and the main drivers here were the digitization contracts, TaWAN and Soldier Systems. With regards to sales, we expect growth in line with the guided annual growth rate and the profitability is on the previous year's level.

We have -- with regards to cash flow, high cash in from Rheinmetall Nomination linked prepayments. A good driver here was a prepayment for the TaWAN of around EUR 500 million that we received.

The nominations this quarter are heavily skewed towards Electronic Solutions. As already said here, TaWAN and Soldier Systems were the drivers. And if you look through again our public press releases, you see all the other elements as well.

Some messages that we gave at the conferences this spring were with regards to the Vision 2030 that Mr. Papperger articulated. So we see that we are able to grow the group to a level of around EUR 30 billion sales, but it could also reach EUR 40 billion. This is a figure that we think is realistic to achieve without any new M&A accounted for within that figure. And also importantly, without any major or huge CapEx requirements. We will give you a more detailed update on this Vision 2030 at our Capital Markets Day in November at the latest.

With regards to Ukraine, one point that Mr. Papperger also already hinted at in the full year call is the significant demand for artillery. They have a need of 50 million rounds in a peace scenario. So that's 1.5 million rounds per year over 10 years. This would require a CapEx of around EUR 4.5 billion, and we would probably need around 2 years to build such a plant. The contract value that we are discussing with the Ukrainians is around EUR 50 billion. And of course, we would like to have an adequate down payment to help us with the CapEx.

We also said that we expect to be debt-free by end of Q3 this year. we are on a very good track to do so.

With regards to mergers and acquisitions, we signed the deal for the 155-millimeter plant in Lithuania, and we are also on track to form a new defense joint venture in Romania.

To sum it up, we are on track for -- to meet our full year 2025 guidance. A guidance update later this year is possible, but only once we have more visibility. We guided with 35% to 40% growth in the defense as part of the business and the civil business will remain flat.

For order intake, we expect to be in the range of EUR 30 billion to EUR 40 billion, including Q1, and this will bring us on a level for the backlog of more than EUR 80 billion by year-end.

And lastly, maybe you saw the news yesterday, we are taking over a small nitrocelluloser producer in Germany, which will again help us to increase the degree of vertical integration in the weapons and ammunition business.

To conclude, I would like to briefly touch the topic of tariffs because I'm sure it's quite a pressing question out there right now. So please be reminded that only around 5% of our group revenues last year were in the U.S. The majority of that still comes from the civil business. And here, we also have a localization strategy. So a lot of the business is local for local. Another major part in that is from vehicle systems, and this is about the prototypes for the XM30, which are also local for local, so only U.S. made. Of course, there might be some impacts due to indirect parts, but this is something we are still in the process of analyzing, and we will give you more information on this in the Q1 call in May.

Lastly, some housekeeping items. So we are publishing Q1 results on May 8, as usual, around at 7:30 in the morning. Then Mr. Papperger and Mr. Neumann will guide you through the document in the afternoon at 2:00 p.m.

[Carl-Philip Schniewind, executive]

And now if you have, I can take your questions. So please raise your hand and then we'll go through the list. I see Mr. Weier. See in the list to unmute you. I see, such a long list right now. Give me a moment. Okay, you can -- should be able to unmute yourself now.

[Sven Weier, analyst]

Hi, Carl-Philip. Can you hear me?

[Carl-Philip Schniewind, executive]

Yes.

[Sven Weier, analyst]

Thanks for doing the call. First of all, I have a follow-up question regarding the order intake number that you just mentioned, the EUR 30 billion to EUR 40 billion. I mean, is that number still kind of pre the events of the German debt break change? So would anything come on top with the new environment we are in.

And also what you mentioned on Vision 2030, maybe you can just repeat that because I know the old vision was EUR 30 billion. And I think after the Munich conference, Mr. Papperger said EUR 35 billion to the FT. Are you now saying EUR 40 billion? Is that the newest? And would that also be before the changes? Or yes, maybe you just give me some additional color.

And then I have a final question on Hagedorn, but maybe you can take those first.

[Carl-Philip Schniewind, executive]

So yes, the figure on Rheinmetall Nomination is in the old world. Of course, it's a very dynamic environment. We'll have to see what happens over the next couple of months. I think a big focus point right now is the NATO Summit towards the end of June and the definition of NATO capability requirements. Coalition talks are still ongoing in Germany. We'll have to see if they're done with that by Easter as they had initially planned. And then this is a figure that, of course, could also change. But for now, we'll have to see and observe and wait.

With regards to Vision 2030, yes, Mr. Papperger said that the, let's say, original figure that we gave was the EUR 30 billion, but with the possibility of growing to EUR 40 billion, but this is all still in the 2% NATO world. So if that figure goes up, we see the potential that this number could grow. We're now starting the planning process. We're waiting for the capability requirements at the official NATO target number and what this will mean for the German budget, and then we'll be able to give you a more precise indication or targets in November at the latest.

[Sven Weier, analyst]

And maybe just as a follow-up, when you say it could grow to EUR 40 billion in the old world, was that to say grow to EUR 40 billion in 2030 or after 2030? Was that the -- what did Mr. Papperger means?

[Carl-Philip Schniewind, executive]

Vision 2030 means in the year 2030.

[Sven Weier, analyst]

Okay. And then the final question, if I may, Carl-Philip, on the acquisition you announced the Hagedorn nitrocellulose, right? I mean my understanding is they currently do civil applications for that.

Question would be for me as a layman on this, how do you change this to defense production? Are they kind of an alternative supplier to China where this is obviously currently mainly coming from? So what can you do with the business? Is this like really a proper alternative to sourcing the product from like China?

[Carl-Philip Schniewind, executive]

Yes. I mean this will allow us to increase the degree of vertical integration. Right now, as you said correctly, they are focusing on the civil side, but by changing a bit the production process from wet nitrocellulose to dry nitrocellulose, which is what we would need for our applications. We think this would be a good addition to our business.

Let's see, are there any other questions? I don't see any hands raised right now. Give you one last chance to submit a question. Sorry for that.

[Dario Dickmann, analyst]

You mentioned the possible Ukrainian contract once again. Is there any time line when you expect a decision from the government?

[Carl-Philip Schniewind, executive]

No, there's been no further information besides what I gave you.

[Sven Weier, analyst]

You said it would be EUR 4.5 billion of CapEx for the EUR 50 billion of revenues. Is that right?

[Carl-Philip Schniewind, executive]

Yes. That's the figure.

[Sven Weier, analyst]

Is that -- it seems a high number, but is that consistent with what you have to spend also here in Germany when you ramp up? Or it sounds like a big number. Is that also then powder and then everything fully integrated or.

[Carl-Philip Schniewind, executive]

That's full shot, yes.

I don't see hands popping up. Okay. Then yes, thanks for taking the time. We'll stay in touch and be out with our results as planned on the 8th of May. Have a good evening, and goodbye.