Tesla Inc
NASDAQ:TSLA
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Intrinsic Value
The intrinsic value of one TSLA stock under the Base Case scenario is 61.72 USD. Compared to the current market price of 217.8 USD, Tesla Inc is Overvalued by 72%.
The Intrinsic Value is calculated as the average of DCF and Relative values:
Valuation Backtest
Tesla Inc
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Fundamental Analysis
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Tesla Inc., founded in 2003, has rapidly evolved from a niche electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer into a global leader in sustainable energy solutions, driven by its powerful vision to accelerate the world’s transition to renewable energy. Spearheaded by CEO Elon Musk, Tesla aims to revolutionize the automotive industry through innovative technologies, including cutting-edge battery designs and advanced autonomous driving systems. The company’s flagship products, the Model S, Model 3, Model X, and Model Y, cater to varied consumer needs, combining performance, safety, and sustainability. With ambitious production goals and a growing global presence, Tesla is not just selling cars; it is resha...
Tesla Inc., founded in 2003, has rapidly evolved from a niche electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer into a global leader in sustainable energy solutions, driven by its powerful vision to accelerate the world’s transition to renewable energy. Spearheaded by CEO Elon Musk, Tesla aims to revolutionize the automotive industry through innovative technologies, including cutting-edge battery designs and advanced autonomous driving systems. The company’s flagship products, the Model S, Model 3, Model X, and Model Y, cater to varied consumer needs, combining performance, safety, and sustainability. With ambitious production goals and a growing global presence, Tesla is not just selling cars; it is reshaping the landscape of personal transportation and challenging traditional automotive giants.
Beyond vehicles, Tesla's commitment to sustainability extends into energy generation and storage, with offerings such as solar panels and the Powerwall battery system. This dual focus on EVs and clean energy positions Tesla well within the rapidly expanding market for renewable energy solutions. Investors are drawn to Tesla for its potential for high growth, bolstered by significant investments in infrastructure, such as the expansive Gigafactory network, which enhances production capacity and reduces costs. However, the company faces challenges, including competition and regulatory scrutiny. Despite these hurdles, Tesla's visionary approach and robust brand loyalty suggest that it will remain a pivotal player in shaping the future of transportation and energy, making it an intriguing and potentially lucrative investment opportunity.
Tesla Inc. operates in several core business segments that contribute to its overall mission of accelerating the world's transition to sustainable energy. The primary segments include:
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Automotive:
- This is Tesla's largest segment, encompassing the design, manufacture, and sale of electric vehicles (EVs). The product lineup includes models such as the Model S, Model 3, Model X, and Model Y. Tesla is also expanding into new vehicle categories, including the Cybertruck and the Tesla Semi. The segment contributes significantly to revenue and has a strong focus on innovation, autonomous driving technology, and battery efficiency.
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Energy Generation and Storage:
- This segment focuses on sustainable energy solutions, including solar energy products and energy storage systems. Tesla offers solar panels, the Solar Roof, and energy storage solutions like the Powerwall, Powerpack, and Megapack. These products aim to integrate renewable energy sources and provide energy management for both residential and commercial customers.
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Services and Other:
- This segment includes revenue from vehicle servicing, sales of used vehicles, development services, and various related activities. It also encompasses software updates and the expansion of Tesla’s Supercharger network. As the number of Tesla vehicles on the road increases, this segment is expected to grow in importance.
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Autonomous Driving and Software:
- Tesla is heavily invested in developing and deploying autonomous driving technology. Features like Autopilot and Full Self-Driving (FSD) packages are significant revenue sources. The software segment includes ongoing updates, subscriptions, and platform services that enhance the driving experience and generate recurring revenue.
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Retail and Financial Services:
- This segment includes financial products like vehicle leasing, loans, and insurance services offered to customers. It also involves Tesla’s retail operations and showrooms, which play a crucial role in direct sales and consumer education about electric vehicles.
Each of these segments plays a crucial role in Tesla's strategic vision for growth and sustainability in the automotive and energy sectors.
Tesla, Inc. possesses several unique competitive advantages that set it apart from its rivals in the automotive and energy sectors. Here are some of the key advantages:
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Brand Strength and Loyalty: Tesla has cultivated a strong brand identity synonymous with innovation, sustainability, and high performance. This brand loyalty often translates into customer advocacy and repeat purchases, making it challenging for competitors to capture Tesla's market share.
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Technology and Innovation: Tesla is a leader in electric vehicle (EV) technology, including battery technology, autonomous driving capabilities, and over-the-air software updates. This technological edge allows Tesla to continuously improve vehicle performance, safety, and user experience, maintaining its position as an industry leader.
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Vertical Integration: Tesla employs a high level of vertical integration, controlling much of its supply chain, including battery production through its Gigafactories. This approach enables better quality control, reduced costs, and more efficient production processes compared to competitors who rely on third-party suppliers.
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Supercharger Network: Tesla has developed an extensive global network of Superchargers, providing convenient and fast charging solutions for its vehicles. This infrastructure not only alleviates range anxiety for Tesla drivers but also enhances the overall usability of its vehicles compared to rivals that lack similar charging networks.
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Data and Machine Learning: Tesla collects vast amounts of data from its fleet, which it uses to improve its self-driving algorithms and enhance vehicle performance. This data advantage contributes significantly to Tesla's progress in autonomous driving technology compared to competitors who may not have access to similar data.
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Economies of Scale: Having achieved substantial production volumes, Tesla benefits from economies of scale in manufacturing. This allows for better cost management, pricing strategies, and profit margins compared to smaller competitors.
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First-Mover Advantage: As one of the first companies to mass-produce electric vehicles, Tesla has established a strong market presence and has built a loyal customer base. This first-mover advantage gives Tesla insights and experience that newer entrants lack.
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Innovation Culture: Tesla's corporate culture encourages risk-taking, rapid innovation, and a strong focus on sustainability. This attracts top talent and fosters an environment where groundbreaking ideas in technology and manufacturing can flourish.
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Energy Products: Beyond vehicles, Tesla's solar products and energy storage solutions (like the Powerwall and Powerpack) position the company uniquely in the broader energy market, allowing it to offer a holistic approach to sustainable energy.
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Customer Engagement: Tesla's direct-to-consumer sales model allows for a closer relationship with customers, offering a seamless purchasing experience and strong customer feedback channels. This engagement helps Tesla stay aligned with customer preferences and expectations.
These competitive advantages, when combined, create a robust ecosystem that reinforces Tesla’s market position and provides a considerable buffer against competitive threats in the growing electric vehicle sector.
Tesla, Inc. faces a variety of risks and challenges in the near future, stemming from both internal and external factors. Here are some key areas to consider:
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Competition: The electric vehicle (EV) market is becoming increasingly crowded, with traditional automakers and new entrants ramping up their EV offerings. Companies like Ford, General Motors, Volkswagen, and numerous startups could capture market share from Tesla.
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Production and Supply Chain Issues: As seen in the past, Tesla has faced challenges with scaling production and managing supply chains. Disruptions in supply chains, particularly for crucial components like batteries and semiconductors, could hinder Tesla's ability to meet demand.
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Regulatory and Political Risks: Changes in government regulations, especially related to environmental standards and automotive safety, can impact Tesla’s operations. In particular, subsidy changes for EVs can alter demand dynamics.
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Technological Challenges: Tesla is heavily reliant on its technological advancements, whether in battery technology, autonomous driving capabilities, or software updates. Any setbacks or failures in these areas could affect the company’s reputation and market position.
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Economic Climate: Economic downturns, inflation, and rising interest rates can affect consumer spending power, thus impacting demand for high-ticket items like electric vehicles.
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Market Volatility: Tesla is known for its volatile stock price, influenced by market sentiment and broader economic factors. This can affect the company's ability to raise capital and invest in growth.
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Global Expansion Risks: As Tesla expands its manufacturing and sales operations internationally, it faces additional risks related to geopolitical tensions, trade tariffs, and varying regulatory environments.
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Dependency on Key Personnel: The company’s leadership, particularly CEO Elon Musk, is a significant driver of its brand and strategy. Any changes in leadership or key personnel could impact investor confidence and business direction.
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Public Perception and Brand Risk: Tesla's reputation can be sensitive to public perception, including concerns about workplace conditions, product quality, or safety issues related to autonomous driving technologies.
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Cybersecurity Threats: With an increasing reliance on software and connectivity in vehicles, Tesla is exposed to potential cybersecurity threats that could compromise vehicle safety and consumer data.
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Sustainability Challenges: As environmental concerns grow, Tesla must continually innovate to maintain its sustainability ethos, particularly regarding battery recycling and sourcing of raw materials.
Addressing these challenges will be essential for Tesla as it seeks to maintain its market leadership and continue its growth trajectory in the competitive EV landscape.
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Tesla Inc
Balance Sheet Decomposition
Tesla Inc
Current Assets | 53B |
Cash & Short-Term Investments | 30.7B |
Receivables | 3.9B |
Other Current Assets | 18.3B |
Non-Current Assets | 59.9B |
PP&E | 48.1B |
Intangibles | 597m |
Other Non-Current Assets | 11.2B |
Current Liabilities | 27.7B |
Accounts Payable | 13.1B |
Accrued Liabilities | 6.5B |
Other Current Liabilities | 8.1B |
Non-Current Liabilities | 18.6B |
Long-Term Debt | 5.5B |
Other Non-Current Liabilities | 13.2B |
Earnings Waterfall
Tesla Inc
Revenue
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95.3B
USD
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Cost of Revenue
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-78.4B
USD
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Gross Profit
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16.9B
USD
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Operating Expenses
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-9.7B
USD
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Operating Income
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7.2B
USD
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Other Expenses
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5.2B
USD
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Net Income
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12.4B
USD
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Free Cash Flow Analysis
Tesla Inc
USD | |
Free Cash Flow | USD |
Tesla has reported record quarterly revenues and significant profits in its energy business, driven by all-time high energy storage deployments. Despite intense market competition and discounted prices from rivals, Tesla remains confident in the long-term growth of electric vehicles. Key developments include advancements in full self-driving technology, with a significant update, version 12.5, rolling out. Tesla maintains its commitment to cost control and efficiency, continuing to offer competitive financing options and aiming to deliver a more affordable vehicle model by the first half of next year. Additionally, the company is investing in AI and autonomous humanoid robots, anticipating substantial future impacts.
What is Earnings Call?
TSLA Profitability Score
Profitability Due Diligence
Tesla Inc's profitability score is 63/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
Score
Tesla Inc's profitability score is 63/100. The higher the profitability score, the more profitable the company is.
TSLA Solvency Score
Solvency Due Diligence
Tesla Inc's solvency score is 78/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Score
Tesla Inc's solvency score is 78/100. The higher the solvency score, the more solvent the company is.
Wall St
Price Targets
TSLA Price Targets Summary
Tesla Inc
According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TSLA is 214.68 USD with a low forecast of 25.11 USD and a high forecast of 325.5 USD.
Dividends
Current shareholder yield for TSLA is .
Shareholder yield represents the total return a company provides to its shareholders, calculated as the sum of dividend yield, buyback yield, and debt paydown yield. What is shareholder yield?
Ownership
TSLA Insider Trading
Buy and sell transactions by insiders
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Profile
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Description
Tesla, Inc. engages in the design, development, manufacture, and sale of fully electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems. The company is headquartered in Austin, Texas and currently employs 99,290 full-time employees. The company went IPO on 2010-06-09. The firm's automotive segment includes the design, development, manufacturing, sales, and leasing of electric vehicles as well as sales of automotive regulatory credits. Additionally, the automotive segment is also comprised of services and other, which includes non-warranty after-sales vehicle services, sales of used vehicles, retail merchandise, sales by its acquired subsidiaries to third party customers, and vehicle insurance. Its energy generation and storage segment includes the design, manufacture, installation, sales and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products and related services and sales of solar energy systems incentives. Its automotive products include Model 3, Model Y, Model S and Model X. Powerwall and Megapack are its lithium-ion battery energy storage products.
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IPO
Employees
Officers
The intrinsic value of one TSLA stock under the Base Case scenario is 61.72 USD.
Compared to the current market price of 217.8 USD, Tesla Inc is Overvalued by 72%.