BNP Paribas SA

PAR:BNP

Earnings Call Transcript

[Operator]

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the presentation of BNP Paribas First Quarter of 2022 Results. For your information, this conference call is being recorded. Supporting slides are available on BNP Paribas IR website, invest.bnpparibas.com. [Operator Instructions]

I would like now to hand the call over to Jean-Laurent Bonnafe, Group Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

[Jean-Laurent Bonnafe, executive]

Thank you. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. I suppose you are doing well, and welcome to the presentation of BNP Paribas First Quarter 2022 Results. Today, Lars and I will present to you the quarterly results, restating the growth component of our 2025 strategic plan and followed by the presentation of the last 2 pillars of our Growth, Technology and Sustainability '25 plan. As usual, at the end of the presentation, we'll be pleased to take your question.

So now I will jump to the results presentation, starting on Slide 3. BNP Paribas is on a solid trajectory in '22, thanks to a robust start to the year, which illustrates the strength of our model and its continuous reinforcement. We delivered indeed very solid results in the first quarter on the back of our ability to adapt and accompany our clients and the economy.

Revenues increased by 13.5% in the operating divisions, stemming from an outperforming CIB as well as a very positive driver of CPBS, both in commercial and personal banking as well as in specialized businesses, combined with a good resilience in investment and protection services. As part of this growth terms, from the effect of the strategic developments realized in '21 and the first quarter '22, in particular, in the equity business or in CPBS, for instance, with FLOA, a leader in buy now pay later solutions.

But it is just a part of the growth. As you certainly saw it, group revenues also strongly increased by 10.4% at constant scope and exchange rates, materializing the significant growth beyond these recent developments. Accompanying the double-digit growth, cost increased, but more than 50% of this increase is actually due to the scope and exchange rate effects as well as the rise in the taxes subject to IFRIC 21, which are, as you know, almost fully accounted for in the first quarter and until '23 strongly inflated by the contribution to the Single Resolution Fund.

So what you can see is that actually, the group benefits not only from a strong potential for growth, but also from a strong operational performance, illustrated by positive jaws of 3.4 points at constant scope and exchange rate, excluding taxes, subject to IFRIC 21. It demonstrates the ability of our businesses to adapt on the back of the gains in operational efficiency and the successful development of leading platforms, allowing growth at marginal cost.

Cost of risk stood at 20 basis points, a particularly low level, resulting from a release in provisioning of performing loans at BancWest. Excluding BancWest, the underlying cost of risk is still low at 30 bps. As a consequence of our strong growth in operating income, the group's net result came in at a solid level of EUR 2.1 billion, a significant increase year-on-year of 19.2% or even EUR 3.4 billion, plus 37%, excluding exceptional items and contribution to the Single Resolution Fund.

The group's core equity Tier 1 ratio clocked in at 12.4% as on one hand, we accelerated organic growth and accompanied the development of businesses with bolt-on acquisition. On the other hand, the CET1 ratio was specifically impacted this quarter by changes in regulation, which were largely anticipated; and a temporary effect of the market environment, which will taper off. In a nutshell, a strong first quarter, which sustains the '22 trajectory.

Turning on to Slide 4. You can see that BNP Paribas diversified model has delivered over the past few years, a sustained growth of 5.9% annually at a pace higher than the underlying economy. Indeed, our model is providing a solid base for growth. First, we are favorably positioned in terms of sectors, geographies and client segments, a position once again, as our leading platforms provide us with the ability to accompany our clients and the economy with a global approach and a long-term view.

We have built a diversified and integrated model for all weather conditions, which is balanced in 3 sources: one, CIB; two, commercial and personal banking, mainly in Europe; and CPBS and IPS specialized businesses. This client-centric model powered by the cooperation between businesses is a critical advantage with around 27% of group revenues generated by cross-selling. As you know, with the '25 strategic plan, we continue to reinforce this model in order to create even more value. This is, I think, already evidenced by our results and will sustain our growth trajectory by '25 starting in '22.

But we consider that we can leverage our model a step further. Hence, we have launched 3 transactional initiatives around payments and flows, financial savings and mobility, with the objective to generate EUR 2 billion of cross-selling revenues, supporting the revenue growth by '25.

Our value creation also stems from our ability to deliver positive jaws, as you can see on Slide 5. I say it again, delivering positive jaws each year and in every division is at the core of our strategy and the main point of attention. It's driven from the capacity of our leading platforms to grow at marginal costs and to continuously deliver gains in operational efficiencies. We have a strong track record in doing so as illustrated by the continuous growth of the gross operating income despite the growing share of the SRF contribution in our expenses.

To sustain positive jaws over the period '21-'25 with an average above 2 points, major initiatives throughout our business lines will be implemented to adjust our cost to serve, increase cost variability and generate EUR 2 billion of recurring cost savings progressively by '25, out of which EUR 500 million in '22. It will sustain our ability to generate positive jaws each year and in each division. It will also be amplified with a EUR 1 billion decrease in costs in '24, resulting from the ramp-up of the SRF contributing by the end of '23. Hence, our potential for growth in the coming years [indiscernible]. As already announced, our '22-'25 group's ambitions are summarized on Slide 6, are confirmed as well as the expected closing of the sale of Bank of the West.

And now I would like to hand over to Lars, who will take you through the group results. Lars?

[Lars Machenil, executive]

Thank you, Jean-Laurent. Good afternoon, fine ladies, gentlemen. If I can ask you to turn to Slide 8, where you can see that the strong results for the first quarter do not rely on exceptional items. Actually, the strong results of the first quarter, they materialized not only with much lower exceptional items, but also on the back of a EUR 400 million step-up in taxes subject to IFRIC 21. I certainly don't have to remind you that under IFRIC 21, those taxes fall in the first quarter, covering the full year. And by the way, a burden that will fall off for a last part, basically the Single Resolution Fund contribution, after next year.

So with this, if I can ask you to swipe to the next to Slide 9, where you can see that the solid performance of the group in the first quarter. And if we start by looking at the bottom line, which clocks in at EUR 2.1 billion, up by a sweet 19% year-on-year. This growth rate has been achieved on the back of a strong performance of the operating divisions. You could say that this performance is somewhat flattered by Bank of the West cost of risk, which is low; or the outperformance of global markets. But let me remind you what I said at the start is that at the same time, this -- basically, this evolution is tempered by the significant step-up in the Single Resolution Fund contribution at a very low level of exceptional items.

So all in all, these effects broadly offset each other, which does mean that indeed the visual growth rate is a fair representation of the first quarter beat, and this leads to a return on tangible equity of 13.5%, and should give you some confidence in our ability to reach a target above 11% in 2025.

If we now look at the operating divisions, and let's start with the revenues, doing so by looking at Slide 10, where I remind you, they are presented according to the new reporting format and with divisions presented in alphabetical order. So revenues grew by 13.5%, 12.1% on a like-for-like basis. CIB revenues grew sharply at 28.1%, consolidating gains in market share and accelerating the reinforcement of the businesses. A strong momentum as well for CPBS with a 8.5% increase, mainly driven by a continued hike in fees as well as an interest -- an increase in net interest income margin of our commercial and personal banking, combined with a very strong increase in revenues for our specialized businesses, I pick out, for example, Arval. On a like-for-like basis, our IPS delivered an increase of revenues of 0.8%, and this in a challenging market environment.

If you could now flick to Slide 11. We stay on the operating divisions, and we look at the costs, and we basically show that they have delivered growth at marginal cost. So the operating divisions costs are up 9.4%, delivering positive jaws. These costs are mainly variable costs linked with a strong revenue growth. As such, CIB saw its cost rise as a result of the growth in activity and change in parameter, delivering highly positive jaws at 9.8 points. In a similar way, CPBS operated also with very positive jaws on the back of a positive evolution of revenues, outpacing costs by more than 3 points. Lastly, IPS costs were up 3.6% year-on-year, in line with targeted investments.

Now this cost evolution is impacted basically by 2 points that I would like to mention. The first, as I said, is the parameter effect. So businesses have been added stepping up the cost and secondly, the single resolution contribution, which stepped up. And as mentioned before, when we correct for these 2 effects, the revenues evolved by 10.4% and the cost by 7%. So again, very positive jaws. And if you look at this 7%, if you break it down, more than half of it, 4.5%, stems from the variable cost at CIB to accompany the revenues; 1% is stemming from the international retail banking and the related growth; and 1.5% is basically the cost of all the rest of the group. So costs and jaws very well under control.

Having said that, if we now look at another line in the P&L, basically, cost of risks. So let's look at Slide 12, and we see the benefits of our long-term risk management policy. And given our strategic direction and thanks to a strong selectivity at origination, on top of that, diversification and long-term client relationship as well as a proactive management of risk, we achieved through time a constant improvement of our cost of risk, leading to our guidance at around 40, 4-0, basis points over outstanding. As an illustration, our exposure to Russia is very low and concentrated on highly collateralized financing for local subsidiaries of non-Russian NMCs. Similarly, we oriented some of our businesses, such as what we have in Italy, personal finance, oil and gas, and we completed the shutdown of our E&C specialized activities in 2020.

So with this, and if we refer to the chart top left on this page, we should emphasize that the cost of risk is particularly low this quarter. We see 20 basis points over outstanding, and this due to releases on performing loans at BancWest. I would say that 30 basis points underlying cost of risk, so excluding those Bank of the West, write-backs is more representative of the quarter and compares well with a full year 2022 cost of risk, which should be a tad below the guidance of 40 basis points that we've given. And if we take the business one by one, you will see the same pattern with low levels of cost of risk due to releases on performing loans, lower provisions on nonperforming loans and a number -- a low number of new defaults.

So with this, we basically looked at the P&L. And if I can ask you to swipe to Slide 15, where you look at the common equity Tier 1 ratio, which stands at 12.4%, a delta of 50 basis points compared to the quarter before. And first on this, as anticipated and now well known, the updating of models and changes in regulation resulted in a 30 base impact as they all fall in this quarter. So all of these changes, there are several of them, and they basically all fall. Now and in the past, they have been better spread over time by the regulator. And as always, this will be handled by the ordinary daily capital management of the bank.

Moreover, this first quarter of '22 is not a standard one, and you will see with no surprise the effect of increased volatility on counterparty risk, but also the impact on OCI of market prices end of March as well as the ForEx effect. As you are well aware, these impacts will progressively taper off. And all this is part of the run of the mill. And exceptionally, as I mentioned, they fall all in this first quarter.

Last, but not least, as we mentioned, BNP Paribas is very well positioned, and we have accelerated our growth, supporting our clients and the economy and reinforcing our business lines with bolt-on acquisitions as we announced. And hence, all of this is to create long-term value, and this resulted in a 10 basis point impact on the CET1. Last but not least, you can see that we have put into reserves 60%, 6-0, of our reserve, in line with our increased ordinary distribution policy. If we then look at the leverage ratio, stood at 3.8% this quarter. So the group is well on track to operate at 4.2% in the context of its 2025 strategic plan.

So with it, if we turn to Page 16 and look at the balance sheet, it is with no surprise that our net tangible book value per share has continued to grow year after year. And this time, it clocked in at EUR 80.1 at the end of March, up 5.6% compared to last year and, therefore, an annual growth rate of 7.2% since 2008, highlighting our value creation year after year under all weather conditions. So I take it you can see the rainbow now.

So turning to our ambitious policy of engagement with society on Slide 17. I would like first to mention the humanitarian situation in Ukraine. An extraordinary mobilization has been rolled out through the group to call for solidarity. First and foremost, BNP Paribas has done everything within its power to provide for the security of its employees, notably through the contribution of neighbor countries such as Poland. In particular, we are housing more than 1,700 persons among our Ukrainian colleagues and their families. I would like to take this opportunity to thank our teams and partners from the deepest of my heart.

Moreover, the group is mobilized around several social challenges and actively supports clients in the energy and environmental transition. This is on Slide 18. These are our priority drivers of our day-to-day actions and strategy. Laurence and Yannick will detail more our concrete actions and commitment in a few minutes.

I'll leave you to peruse Slide 19 on internal control and compliance, emphasizing, of course, the rigorous and diligent implementation of all the necessary measures to the enforcement of international sanctions. So all is fine. No reason to check-in out.

I will now currently ask you to advance to the first quarter results by division, starting on Slide 21 with CIB, which saw a very sharp increase in results, building once again on its diversification and leveraging on buoyant client activity. Indeed, with consolidated leadership positions in EMEA, a successful integration of the prime brokerage activities as well as BNP Paribas Exane, CIB strengthened its capacity to support its clients' needs, step up market shares and step up in the U.S. and in the APAC regions.

First, if we look at a primary market, which was down 25%, the market as a whole. Global banking delivered a very strong performance this quarter, outperforming the market by 10 points in terms of volumes across syndicated loans, bonds and equity. Hence, global banking maintained a solid level of revenues, up 2%, on the back of this continued growth in loans, gains in market share and progress made in trade and cash management.

Secondly, there is a second division, which is supported by the very strong client activity with the new division for the platform Global Markets, saw a very robust growth on the back of a high demand for hedging activities on rates, currencies and commodity derivatives. Equity markets and prime services clocked in at good levels, and there was a good momentum on derivatives as well as structured products. On primary markets, our #1 position on bond issues in euros has been confirmed. In this context, revenues saw a material increase of 52.8% with a good balance between FICC activities and equity and prime services.

Lastly, third, Securities Services saw an increase in assets as well as a record volume of transactions this quarter, confirming the sustained growth of this platform. Hence, revenues increased by 5.5%, a very strong performance.

So in synthesis, all this resulted in a very solid increase in CIB revenues, up 28%. Total CIB costs were up 18% in connection with this very strong activity. With revenue growth outpacing significantly cost evolution, CIB operated this quarter with, what else can I say, very positive jaws at close to 10 points. Gross operating income was up over 61%. Hence, CIB generated EUR 1.3 billion of pretax income, in other words, close to doubling results with a very low cost of risk.

So to wrap up on CIB, very strong performance in revenues as a clear illustration of the market share gains, the dimension of the new platform with a long-term view, very positive jaws effect and a sharp increase in income for CIB this quarter, supported by significant client volumes, note mentioning a strong risk management culture.

If you can now turn your attention to Slide 25 on what we call commercial, personal banking and services or in shorthand, CPBS. We witnessed a strong momentum on the back of a very good business drive across commercial and personal banking. So one part of CPBS on one hand. And these had a strong performance as well from the other part of CPBS, specialized businesses. In terms of activity, if we look at loan growth, it was up 4.8%, and deposits grew by 8.2% across all businesses. On the Private Banking front, we saw very strong net asset inflows of EUR 5 billion.

So this is the banking. If we look at the specialized businesses, our strong ability to grow was confirmed by Arval and Leasing Solutions with a good momentum at Personal Finance as well as new digital businesses, which include the integration of FLOA, I remind you, a leader in the buy now pay later business in France with 3.7 million clients and highlighting as well the continuous growth of Nickel with now 2.6 million accounts opened.

Moreover, the division continued the transformation of its operating model for retail customers and this to improve client satisfaction and step up cost variability. It materialized, for instance, with the implementation of a distribution partnership with bpost in Belgium and first steps towards outsourcing certain activities at BNL in Italy. If we look at the P&L and if we look in particularly at revenues, they were up 8.5%.

If we now focus on the commercial and personal banking side, the performance was very solid, 7.5% up, with strong increase in both net interest income as well as fees. It increased notably in the Euro zone with 6.5%, supported by France, Belgium, Luxembourg, but also in Europe-Med with 46% on a like-for-like basis on the back of strong volumes in Poland and Turkey as well as favorable interest rates over there. Then if we cross the Atlantic, in the U.S., BancWest saw a strong increase in loan production, including mortgages and equipment loans.

If we now look to the second part of CPBS, specialized businesses. Revenues, they were up 10.6%. Arval and Leasing Solutions saw a sharp increase of 27% on the back, respectively, of high used car prices and volume growth. Personal Finance revenues were up 2% on a like-for-like basis and with loan production and volumes bouncing back 10.8%, up on last year and back to March 2019 levels at constant exchange rates. So that's the top line. If we then look at the cost line, they were up 5.2%, reflecting the strong business momentum with very positive jaws this quarter of 3.3 points.

The commercial and personal banking networks confirm their capacity to contain their costs. Specialized businesses confirmed their potential to grow at marginal cost with an extremely high positive jaws for Arval and Leasing, more than 18 points, 1-8. And so hence, pretax income stood at EUR 1.8 billion this quarter, marking a 59%, 5-9. To wrap up, a very strong quarter for CPBS with very positive jaws effect and a steep drop in cost of risk, mainly related to Bank of the West.

If I can now ask you to advance to Slide 34 to 37, you'll see that our investments and protection services, IPS, division maintained a good business momentum despite an unfavorable environment, driven by market performances this quarter. And in this context, overall net asset inflow proved resilient during the quarter with contrasted evolution and a good momentum overall on fee. If we look first at Wealth Management businesses, the activity was strong on the back of very good net asset inflows, thanks to our European networks. In Asset Management, we saw the ongoing development of private debt with the finalization of the acquisition of Dynamic Credit Group. In tune with the market, net outflows towards quarter end were observed on monetary funds.

If we now turn to Insurance, we saw a good business drive. And you know business drive that is looked at through growth inflows, for example, in savings, above 20% year-on-year, we saw in Asia, France and Luxembourg. And this, combined with the announcement of new partnership with, for example, fintech Neon in Brazil and Coppel in Mexico.

If we now focus on the P&L, IPS revenues stood at EUR 1.6 billion, stable versus a year ago, as a combination of strong revenues in Wealth and Asset Management, plus 7.9%, and the negative accounting impact on insurance revenues related to the marketing at fair value of part of the assets in Insurance, which, as you know, are reversible and they will return when the markets recover. And so please note that revenues would have significantly increased this quarter without this, "accounting impact."

If we then look at the cost line. Costs were up 3.6% on the back of targeted investments. As you know, IPS is a growth engine for the group. And Wealth and Asset Management operated with very positive jaws at 2.4 points. To wrap up the businesses and in particularly IPS, a strong sales and marketing drive on the back of reinforced capabilities, which confirm IPS as a key growth engine, even if it does not get fire on all cylinders as a consequence of the adverse market environment that I talked about.

So this, ladies and gentlemen, concludes my presentation, and I will now hand back to Jean-Laurent for the conclusion.

[Jean-Laurent Bonnafe, executive]

Thank you, Lars. Switching now to Slide 39. As key takeaway, I would like you to keep in mind, first, the prospect of a solid trajectory in '22 on the back of a very favorable commercial drive, sustained by a strong first quarter. Being the strength, our BNP Paribas distinctive model has supported our solid performance in revenues this quarter with high professional performance resulting in strong positive jaws of 3.4 points at constant scope and exchange rates, excluding IFRIC 21 taxes. Cost of risk remains low, thanks to our prudent risk management, delivering a very strong growth in net income. And all in all, this first quarter strong results encompassed the key ingredients for the successful execution of our strategic plan GTS '25.

This concludes the first quarter '22 results presentation. And now, ladies and gentlemen, we are glad to present the second part of our '25 strategic plan, growth technology and sustainability is the presentation today of the last 2 pillars: technology and sustainability. And as usual, at the end of the presentation, we'll be pleased to take your questions. So Laurent, the floor is yours.

[Laurent David, executive]

Thank you, Jean-Laurent. Good afternoon to all of you. My name is Laurent David, and I am Deputy CEO in charge of technology and operational performance.

As you know, in the GTS 2025 plan, T stands for technology. It is well obvious that technology plays an always more central and growing role in the development of most activities, including banking and banking services. It has to see with the capabilities that accelerating technological innovations allow to increase. And it has to see with the growing need expressed by our customers getting used to new standards. It also has to see with the opportunities that technological developments offer in terms of enhancement of operational performance. This is why in this presentation, we will alternatively skip from operational performance enhancements to technological enablers.

Starting with Slide 4. If we give a look back to the former plan, 2016-2021, we shall say that the 2 main priorities in terms of technology were, on one side, to allow the digitalization of most of our customer relationships and internal processes and on the other side, to build a more secure, robust and resilient system.

On the digitalization, benefits are made available for customers and employees and at the same time, allow an improvement of efficiency of most of our back-office processes through a front-to-back approach. The high multipliers observed on customer digitalized interactions are the most relevant figures to be noted during this plan. Other levers that were put in place are the continuous modernization of our premises, adapted to new ways of working even before the COVID pandemic, mainly in head office premises. The development of our global platforms for IT and back offices, mainly through our shared service centers in India and Portugal; and last but not least, the initial phase of development for robotics and artificial intelligence inside our processes.

On the IT system, it has benefited of growing attention and level of investment over the period besides the digital portion of it. We have indeed reinforced our platforms, in particular on cybersecurity, to increase the protection of our clients' assets with today around 2,700 dedicated FTEs. We also have reinforced our infrastructures with a thorough review of our data center setup to be more centralized and of our network infrastructure to be adapted to growing volumes and resiliency requirements with, for instance, a machine power more than doubled in these 4 years.

Skipping to Slide 5. At the end of the day, as you can see it, all the levers activated did allow EUR 3.1 billion in recurrent cumulative cost savings, therefore, we're ahead of the preannounced figures by EUR 400 million, with an initial investment better than expected and a cost over investment ratio of less than 1 year in average. Hence, over the period, the group delivered a 0.8% average jaws effect despite the increase in taxes subject to IFRIC 21, demonstrating the effectiveness of the levers deployed to gain inefficiency.

Moving to 2025 on Slide 6. You can see that most of the levers in place will be continued, among which the most recent ones will be accelerated. The target set for 2025, as Jean-Laurent said earlier, is a EUR 2 billion cumulative recurrent cost savings regularly split over the 4 years of the plan and proportionally split between the business lines. Besides this EUR 2 billion, there is around EUR 1 billion to be added through the completion of the Single Resolution Fund funding at the end of 2023. Hence, a total of EUR 3 billion total, sustaining our ability to deliver an average to effect bigger than 2%.

The main difference with the former plan is that development cost for these initiatives are embedded in the plan of all business lines and shall not require additional funding, while allowing the global jaw effect to be positive every year for every business division. The different levers on this slide, on the left-hand part of it, will be subject to further detail in our following comments.

Let's start on Slide 7, integrating trends in working methods, in particular, the development of remote working and flex offices. The optimization of premises will be continued in France and generalized outside of France with an increased mutualization of positions, materialized by a target ratio of 0.75, therefore, an improvement by 25% compared to 2021. Broadly speaking, all external expenses will be subject to regular scrutiny in order to ensure growing yearly savings, including reaction to the likely surge of inflation.

We will continue to pool resources and platforms, in particular with the make, buy share strategy, which will be further enhanced. On one side, our shared service centers will concentrate a new set of activities, either in IT or operations, and grow by 25% over the period. On the other side, the creation of common technical platforms between different entities within the group will be encouraged, especially for emerging need, for instance, ESG steering; or businesses with a global reach, for instance, cash management and payments.

Further to these internal projects, mutualization with external partners and peers, which was not very developed on the market until now, will multiply, especially in domains where the evolution of regulation or client practices allow to pool resources across banks, decrease the cost to serve, while increasing client satisfaction with no impact in terms of relative competitive advantage. To that extent, the projects around ATM pooling in different countries in Europe are unlimited.

If we move towards technology, starting on Slide 8. It is fair to consider, on one side, the fundamental changes that will impact our IT setups. And on the other side, the potential of value creation linked to data and artificial intelligence. Certainly, data and AI will be one of the main constituents of operational performance in the coming plan to the same extent that digital was in the former one. IT spending that grew in absolute but also in relative numbers will be for this coming plan maintained at the current level of 22% of the global OpEx. It shall allow to cope with new requirements, business projects, growing volumes and continuous security investment.

I leave the floor to Bernard and Rim that will comment these perspectives, and I will conclude this presentation afterwards.

[Bernard Gavgani, executive]

Thank you, Laurent. Good afternoon all of you. My name is Bernard Gavgani, and I am Group Chief Information Officer.

The transformation program launched aims to offer a new customer and employee experience, accelerate digitalization and improve operational efficiency. Five levers contribute to this objective. First, cloud, to optimize our processes in the management of our projects while offering a significant power in our evolution and guaranteeing the security of a private infrastructure. Two, the IT marketplace, to adapt the bank as a service model to facilitate the integration of our services and APIs to shift our IT infrastructure towards new patterns adaptable to entities' business models and using standardized exchange principles through interoperability and economy at scale by reuse of capabilities, thanks to the group platform.

Third, data, by taking the structural approach, leveraging initiatives launched to achieve the information of our -- transformation of our information systems and building a consistent group and digitalized services offer. Four, AI, which plays a key role in improving the digital experience of our customers and employees. We also use it to strengthen the group's security by analyzing intrusion attempts and suspected data leaks. It's a powerful engine for growth and innovation. Five, technological watch, by anticipating computing and technology changes as the key to remain competitive by establishing industry partnerships to test new technologies and by having a voice in key digital communities, all while investing in technologies and information systems in a stable manner to support developments, adapt the computation power and ensure digital confidence through a robust and a industrial cyber plan.

Turning to Slide 9. The development and deployment of the robust and long-term cloud solution is key to achieve the banking -- the group's banking transformation. BNP Paribas cloud strategy will foster end-to-end agility, enable streamlined processes and accelerate try fast, learn fast paradigm. Therefore, to support the business lines and functions ambitions, BNP Paribas has adopted a cloud strategy, fostering hybrid cloud, innovation acceleration and IT risk control. On one hand, cloud technology usage within BNP Paribas Group are structured in 5 types of cloud use cases, which have a role to play in the group's cloud strategy. On the other hand, a progressive approach has been adopted, focusing first on dedicated cloud investment in European locations.

The BNP Paribas dedicated cloud is the best of both worlds, delivering benefits of public cloud with security standards of a private cloud. Therefore, to address group-wide ambitions, virtual dedicated cloud are being gradually deployed in the U.S., LatAm and APAC regions to reach at least 30% of BNP Paribas information system on BNP Paribas dedicated cloud by the end of 2025.

Please turn to Slide 10. Nowadays, the APIs are everywhere. They daily feed our online and mobile experiences. They share our data and provide a new enriched functionalities in our digital lives. The APIs are a key catalyst of our GTS 2025 plan with a large deployment throughout our information system. Within BNP Paribas Group, the APIs are becoming a standard way of exchange for internal and external communications between group entities and with our clients and partners. It is the new standardized way to interface IT services, allowing the building of the modular and open architecture. Thanks to APIs, we will be able to easily share our IT services between group entities. The reuse of rationalization of those components will be prompt, allowing the reduction of cost and efforts.

The new group API platform, put in place in 2020, was carrying an average 2 million of transactions per month. We are expecting to an average of 190 million transactions per month by the end of 2022 and an average of 400 million transactions for 2025. The APIs are a level of growth and innovation for the bank. To better restructure the delivery and the adoption of the digital levers within the group, BNP Paribas choose to build the IT marketplace. This platform is aiming to connect at IT service providers and their consumers within a secure environment on which we target to adapt the way our employees are consuming IT services, moving toward a you click, you get model similar to one already offered by the tech giants such as Amazon.

First, as previously said, this platform is at group scale allowing all entities, businesses and functions to consume and expose IT services. Secondly, in regard to the accessible content, we will expose the digital levers, cloud data API, digital working and also provide an access to existing knowledge basis. As a third point, this platform should encourage us to innovate more with a similar access to sandbox environments to experiment. Additionally, to share experience within our internal community, enabling a faster progress together and avoiding repeating the same mistakes.

Finally, this platform will be controlled market being a key factor of success for the IT marketplace. The available services will be complied with the defined and share standards and will be certified accordingly. Relying on these 2 levels, we intend to move from an information system historically organized in silo to an open environment, which still remains secure for ourselves and for our clients.

[Rim Tehraoui;BNP Paribas SA;Chief Data Officer, executive]

I'm going to take over. Thank you, Bernard. So good afternoon to all of you. My name is Rim Tehraoui, I am BNP Paribas Chief Data Officer. As mentioned earlier by Laurent, we are all convinced that creating value from data and AI is going to be a key competitive advantage. But in practice, not that many managed to go beyond the buzzword and the inefficient notification of proof of concept.

So to make it happen, we have spent the last 2 years deploying a comprehensive systematic and industrialized data strategy centered around 3 types of enablers. First of all, we have invested in technology with data at the core and a strong focus on operational efficiency. Our goal was to simplify, to accelerate and to industrialize access to data, exchange of data and value creation from data. For instance, we have deployed at scale data visualization tools for all BNPP employees. Similarly, we have developed 2 state-of-the-art group-wide data science platforms, 1 being built fully internally, in our dedicated cloud. So our analytics teams can deliver AI use cases in a secure and industrial environment. And as a third example, we have built a cloud-based data platform fully dedicated to ESG data and analytics.

Second, we are supported by end-to-end data management frameworks that ensure that our data is governed, created and protected over its entire life cycle; that its usage is safe and fit for purpose and of course, ethical so that it always respect our clients, our partners and employees privacy and interest. Finally, our technology and frameworks can only go thus far without a strong investment in change management and data articulation. So we have focused on developing a data valuing culture along with technical trainings and in complement to democratized access to data tools. Now with those 3 enablers in place, we are ready to go at scale to support key GTS 2025 priorities.

Firstly, building on our leading position in Europe, the BNPP as a platform strategy, which strives to unlock full benefit of our integrated operating model through a simple, personalized and value-creative user experience will be powered by shared data ecosystems, flowing data and mutualized AI assets in the IT marketplace. Second, our concept of an ESG data supply chain, supported by the ESG data platform I mentioned earlier, will be instrumental in accelerating our sustainable finance ambitions. By providing our business line with curated best-of-breed ESG data, plus an enriched layer of AI and analytics, they will be able to assist our clients and partners in their journey towards a more sustainable economy. And third, BNP Paribas employees are, of course, essential for the success of our strategy. Therefore, we will continue to invest heavily in building greater technology, AI and data expertise through both upskilling and focused hiring based on an ongoing to strategic workforce planning exercise.

But beyond sourcing talent, we do have 2 top priorities in this domain. First of all, fostering diversity as much as we can because we absolutely need the differentiated skills and abilities of women to shape an inclusive AI and generally, a more inclusive and sustainable digital future. Second, we want to develop a citizen version of the data and AI technical to make sure we onboard the bulk of our workforce and to ensure user adoption. Last but not least, we are actively working at going at scale in terms of AI.

Again, far from the buzzword, our priority use cases are firmly grounded in concrete day-to-day operation, and they have already delivered immediate and significant efficiency gains. For instance, we leverage on speech-to-text algorithms to optimize client experience through shorter waiting time, faster direction to the relevant expert, while also reducing cost to serve. We are also able to better protect the bank and our clients by optimizing antifraud and anti-money-laundering processes, and we deliver efficiency to optimize and, therefore, more profitable direct marketing campaigns.

While this is a solid picture, we believe there is more to be achieved to greater industrialization of our existing portfolio and the development of new AI use cases. And in that respect, we have an objective to reach over 1,000 value creating use cases in production by 2025.

I'm handing over to Laurent for the conclusion.

[Laurent David;BNP Paribas SA;Deputy CEO, executive]

Thank you, Rim. I'm going to Slide 12. As anticipating common terms on technological changes and establishing fruitful partnerships and collaborations are 2 key levers to remain competitive in a fast evolving world.

As a first leg, on Slide 12, we adopt an active technological watch, relying on our internal networks involving business lines, functions and our IT community, but also our external networks, for example, our renewed partnership with IBM or our collaboration with academics, such as [indiscernible] in France. Our objective is to leverage on our competence centers to foster the operational integration of these new technologies to better serve our customers.

As a second leg, flicking to Slide 13, we partner in the fintech-insurtech ecosystem at various stages of its development and with different intervention models. First, acquisitions of majority stakes to acquire relevant know-how, for instance, in the recent past with Nickel, FLOA, which are good examples of our ability to create payment and tech leaders, leveraging their specific fintechs DNA. And at the same time, the group's ability to support them in their acceleration and expansion in Europe with a long-term view, security expertise and group local presence and market knowledge.

Second, dynamic organization for investments of minority stakes through VC funds or corporate development approaches, Venture Capital aiming at helping disruptors and financial industry innovators, while corporate development strategy focuses on industrial synergies. Three, proactive open innovation with start-ups to explore and adopt innovations coming into the market, collaborative sourcing through acceleration programs such as Tech Up by BNP Paribas, or Plug and Play at Station F in Paris. Since 2017, these programs have contributed to the group digital transformation by completing more than 50, 5-0, pilots with selected start-ups, detecting emerging trends over the financial industry and developing new ways of working within BNP Paribas business lines and functions.

Simplified contractual architecture to enable faster collaboration with dedicated infrastructure to facilitate sandbox approaches and proof of concepts. Enabling deep and successful operational integration with top-notch fintechs. For example, Instanea is a payment solution developed by BNP Paribas with Token. Or another example, data aggregation rolled out with Tink over several countries. These various models of contribution foster our capacity of innovation while ensuring a strong financial discipline.

As a conclusion, I would remind the 3 main messages that we wanted to share with you today. Operational performance and technology are linked and are at the very heart of the GTS plan, which means the BNP Paribas strategy. This new step is following previous steps where the group has been able to simultaneously deliver strong discipline, increase its level of performance, consolidate the foundations of its platforms and create space for investments for the future. The period to come, we'll see this transformation deepened, in some cases such as artificial intelligence or cloud computing even accelerated in the group-wide framework that covers all functions and business lines.

And now I would like to hand over to Laurence and Yannick, who will take you through the presentation of the strategic plan, including and fostering on sustainability.

[Laurence Pessez, executive]

Thank you, Laurent. Good afternoon to all of you. My name is Laurence Pessez. I'm the Global Head of CSR for BNP Paribas.

So I'm on Slide 15 now. Contributing to responsible and sustainable economy is at the heart of BNP Paribas company group. It's a result of a long-lasting conviction. Sustainable finance is part of a continued strategy that started more than 10 years ago. As you can see on the slide, during those 10 years, we have demonstrated our leadership through strong commitments, exemplary policies and leading positions on financial products and services, participating in the improvement of society and the ecological transition.

Focusing on climate, we started increasing our support to the most emitting sources of energy as early as 2010, and we sent a strong signal to our counterparts in the energy sector by ceasing dealings with shale oil and gas and tar sands companies in 2017. In 2020, we chose to phase out a whole thermal coal sector value chain by 2030 in the EU and OECD countries and by 2040, in the rest of the world. As a result, as you will see later in the presentation, our CO2 emissions reduction targets are more ambitious than our peers on the power generation and oil and gas sectors as our baseline already reflects the active monitoring of our portfolio, we have implemented during the last 5 years. In addition, we've decided to pursue in this direction by restricting our support to energy companies significantly involved in the Arctic and the Amazon regions and in shale oil and gas and tar sands. Additionally, we will soon disclose our financed emissions, Scope 3, based on 2022 data.

Sustainability requires a lot of expertise and know-how. It takes time to build. Being an early mover as such has given us the ability to answer the needs of our clients and also a solid competitive advantage. As you can see, we have leading positions on green and sustainable bonds and on ESG-linked loans globally and in EMEA, steadily increasing our market shares. We've been frontrunners as illustrated by the role we've played advising Northvolt on raising the debt needed to finance its battery factory or the launch of the first real estate fund in Europe, consistent with the Paris Agreement.

Moving then to Slide 16. As you have understood, sustainability is a key pillar of our 2022-2025 growth, technology and sustainability plan. We will upscale the support to our clients in their transition towards a sustainable and low-carbon economy, mobilizing resources across all businesses. In line with our commitment to contribute to the achievement of the UN SDGs, we have prioritized 5 topics on which we can bring added value, thanks to our integrated model: climate action, biodiversity, circular economy, social inclusion and sustainable savings, investments and financing. They are part of each business entities development plan.

In addition, we've set robust and ambitious commercial KPIs that reflect this business strategy. First, mobilized over EUR 350 billion for loans and bond issues tied to environmental and social issues by 2025. Second, manage over EUR 300 billion in sustainable and responsible investments by 2025. As you can see, the group is fully mobilized to accelerate on sustainable finance we achieve.

I will now leave the floor to Yannick who will present how we are going to implement this strategy.

[Yannick Jung, executive]

Well, thank you very much, Laurence, and good afternoon to all of you. My name is Yannick Jung, I'm in-charge of the Global Banking business within CIB. Again, thank you. Just had a problem with the mic.

So you just heard it with Laurence, sustainability was at the very core of our previous plan, and that gave us a significant head start. I will spend the next couple of minutes to tell you how we intend to double down on sustainability in our GS 2025 plan and how we will ensure that ESG permeates at all levels of the group. So to do so, we have set ourselves 3 simple strategic priorities that are very much intertwined with one another. The first priority that you see on the left-hand side of the Page 17 is to deliver on the net-0 commitments we have taken. This is about making sure that the CO2 emissions of our clients that are being financed by our lending book will be reducing over time at the required speed to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.

Our second priority is around supporting those very same clients to achieve these carbon reduction goals. And to do so every single part of BNP Paribas is working relentlessly on assisting our clients to transition towards a more sustainable low-carbon economy. Our third strategic priority that you see on the screen there is around our own people. It's about fostering a group-wide sustainability culture. It's about training our teams and equipping them with the right skills, the right knowledge, giving them the right monitoring tools and the right governance to drive the effort.

Now each of these 3 priorities are closely interlinked with one another. Our CO2 emission reduction targets are fed by the constant dialogue we're having with our clients. Meeting the target depends on our working hand-in-hand with those clients on the execution of their transition strategies, which in turn depends on the competence and effectiveness of our teams. Each of these 3 priorities are also translated into hard objectives at the level of every single business line in the group. It is also important to mention that ESG-related performance indicators are used to determine part of the variable compensation of our key employees.

I will now spend the next 3 minutes to walk you through in greater details all of what we are doing to tackle the fight against global warming. This is 1 of the 5 ESG priority areas that Laurence just told you about. After I am done, Laurence will then take it from there to describe how we deal with the remaining 4 priority areas. And I invite you now to move to Page 18. I appreciate this is a bit of a dense page, so please bear with me. The left-hand side, deals with our net-0 portfolio alignment works, and I will start there. We have decided to focus the first phase of our works on the oil and gas, the power generation and the car making industries. And this is because the fossil fuels and the energy sector account for about 75% of the global greenhouse gas emissions. I will spare you the details of the science-based methodologies that forms the basis of our work. If you are interested to find out more, I invite you to look at our climate analytics alignment report, the first addition of which is actually being released today.

I would, however, like to make 3 important points. My first point is that we have elected to set for ourselves near-term reduction targets through to 2025. This calls for concrete and immediate action, and it calls for a lot of discipline and rigor. My second point is that our reduction targets are demanding targets. Our objective is that by 2025, we will have reduced the CO2 intensity of our lending activities by more than 30% for the power generation industry, 25% for the automotive industry and 10% for the oil and gas exploration and refinery industries. On top of this, we have also elected to set ourselves hard lending exposure reduction targets of minus 12% for oil and gas upstream and of minus 25% for the oil upstream segment only.

And that takes me to my third and final point, which is that the methodologies we have developed aim at being transparent and easily comparable with our peers. But more fundamentally, they are built using our clients' data sets and the objectives that are linked to their own transition strategies. I stressed earlier how important that link is. Simply put, to hit our targets, we must be by our client side to facilitate their low-carbon transition, notably by providing advice but also access to capital. And this is what the right-hand side of Page 18 kicks in. The advice we will be providing through our newly created low-carbon transition group. Now this is a super group that we comprise over time, 250 professionals, which pulls together all of the expertise we have in the field of energy, of renewables as well as transition technologies such as hydrogen or carbon capture.

But our clients would also need significant capital to finance the decarbonization of their business models as well as their shift to greener energy sources. This CapEx will be funded, for a part, out of our balance sheet and for a much bigger part by leveraging on our leading capital markets platform and by calling on our deep institutional client base. This is, as you know, at the very core of CIB's strategy to bridge the supply and the demand of capital between its corporate and its institutional client base.

But beyond banking, our specialized subsidiaries will also play their part. For instance, Arval will increase its fleet of electrified vehicles, while Personal Finance can extend loans to help individuals install EV chargers or solar panels into their own houses. Now by combining all of these areas of strength, we are confident we can play a central role in supporting our clients' low-carbon transition. And to do so, we are aiming to help them access in aggregate over EUR 200 billion of capital through to 2025.

And with this, Laurence, over to you.

[Laurence Pessez, executive]

Thank you, Yannick. Moving to Slide 19. As we have now extensively talked about what we are doing to transitioning towards carbon neutrality, I would like to focus on the other 4 priority topics presented on Slide 16. Indeed, our purpose is to globally contribute to the achievement of the UN SDGs.

Starting with social inclusion, which has been at the core of our strategy for years and is today even more relevant. By 2025, we aim at having 6 million beneficiaries of our products and services, supporting financial inclusion through Nickel and the loans we grant to microfinance institutions.

The group has also increased its philanthropy budget to EUR 200 million by 2025, notably to support an integration program for refugees and a new solidarity plan. We will continue to encourage social enterprises and female entrepreneurship as we believe they are game changers.

Since preserving natural capital and biodiversity is bound to be as important as financing the energy transition, we commit to dedicate EUR 4 billion by 2025 to finance companies contributing to the protection of terrestrial and marine biodiversity. This is based on the actions we've already taken to help fight against deforestation. Biodiversity is a complex topic. Global coalitions are needed to move the needle. That's why we're actively involved within the TNFD, which is currently defined in the reporting framework.

On Slide 20, our objective is to become the reference player in Europe for sustainable savings and investments. In that extent, our financial savings initiative embeds ESG by design at all levels, starting from SFDR regulatory implementation to customer profiling and product offering. As regards private assets and thematic funds, the objective is to lead innovation in ESG and impact investing. And of course, we're committed to the net zero relevant alliances. Finally, yet essentially, we want to encourage our clients' transition to circular models by, for example, financing and providing insurance for recycling of electronic devices or second-hand goods. Many business lines within the group have already developed offering related to circular economy: BNP Paribas Leasing Solutions, BNP Paribas Personal Finance, BNP Paribas Car Lease and BNP Paribas Asset Management.

On Slide 21. Delivering everything we've presented and supporting our clients transition towards sustainability will require a strong involvement from all BNP Paribas business lines as such. A new governance is set up at the highest level of the bank to follow strategic issues and progress on our commitments. It will ensure a high-level industrialization of the processes dedicated to sustainability.

There will be a strong focus on the reliability and integration of sustainability data, especially for risk management purposes. Of course, our people are key to be the trusted sustainability partner for our clients. A strong effort will be performed on staff upskilling and expertise sharing for the sustainability academy, which will be working in synergy with the NEST, an internal network of 400 sustainability experts.

As sustainability requires to test and invest in new models, BNP Paribas dedicated EUR 450 million to invest on our own account in new projects dedicated to innovative solutions and impact projects. They will target the ecological transition, natural capital and local development. BNP Paribas integrated model will be a strong asset to provide simple solutions to complex problems. Today, more than ever, we're deeply convinced that working together with our clients and society is the only way to bring a sustainable model to our businesses, particularly in light of the challenges ahead of us.

This concludes my presentation on our Strategic Plan 2025 for sustainability [ and our ambition ] of the 2025 Strategic Plan. We'll now be pleased to take your questions on the first quarter 2022 [indiscernible] and on the 2025 Strategic Plan for technology and sustainability.

[Jean-Laurent Bonnafe, executive]

Thank you, Laurence.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] First question from Jon Peace from Credit Suisse.

[Karl Peace, analyst]

So my first question is, you said with the Q4 results that in the 2025 plan, you were expecting a 4% CAGR in Global Markets revenues. I just wondered how you feel about that today in a sort of post Ukraine environment of higher volatility. Do you see some upside to that? Or do you still expect it to normalize lower after a few quarters? And then my second question, just to clarify a remark that Lars made. Did you say that you expected the cost of risk this year to come in a little bit below the 40 basis points you'd indicated in the 2025 plan?

[Jean-Laurent Bonnafe, executive]

So on your first point, as you've seen, I mean, the business model as Global Markets within CIB is now completed, has onboarded a number of new dimensions over the past years. So the new platform is, let's say, comprehensive, full-fledged. And we're addressing a number of -- an increasing number of counterparts quarter after quarter. So we believe this machine, this platform will deliver a better-than-average growth over the quarters and years to come.

We believe -- because we saw that in the first quarter, we believe that we are making a real difference. And looking at the situation today, even if, obviously, there will be some impacts on, I would say, level of the economical growth, maybe number of transactions, we believe that we can not only confirm the targets we publish for the plan, but probably the machine, the platform is strong enough even to grab, again, additional market shares. So we are quite confident in the future of that platform, that business, knowing that it's very much based on a mix of, I would say, comprehensiveness of the platform, ability to serve all counterparts and growing market share, considering that we are increasing, enlarging the number of counterparts we are dealing with every day.

So this is the way we are looking at the situation. Of course, '25 is a long time, but we believe because we can see that, especially in the first quarter that we've reached a level that is very different from the level we used to be 2, 3 years ago, and that could prove good evidence that the machine is running quite well and efficiently.

On the cost of risk, when we published the guidance at 50 bps -- at 40 bps, sorry, we said we were, I would say, on the safe side. So looking at the current environment, including the situation in Europe, we believe that still, we have a certain room to maneuver looking at the 40 bps. So in theory, yes, we should be able to deliver a better job, knowing that within BNP Paribas still there are 2 dimensions. We are continuously improving, I mean, cost of risk at Personal Finance, cost of risk at BNL.

Cost of risk at Personal Finance is quite simple to understand. We are growing anything that is, I would say, car loan financing and decreasing the revolving consumer lending. So the mix is of a better quality. We have, I would say, concluded a number of important deals recently, partnerships, one with Stellantis, the other one with Jaguar Land Rover. We're on the verge of, I would say, concluding new partnerships. So this is the way Personal Finance is moving. And again, the business model, the underlying franchise of BNL is continuously improving. So again, there is, I would say, a potential, let's say, upgrade in terms of risk profile, meaning downsizing the cost of risk at BNL. So on average, yes, even after the recent events and based on, I would say, current scenarios, we believe we can deliver a better job than 40 bps.

[Operator]

And next question from Tarik El Mejjad from Bank of America.

[Tarik El Mejjad, analyst]

Two quick questions, please. First one on the usage of the EUR 7 billion excess capital from BancWest. Do you believe at the moment, given some lower valuation than 2 months ago when you present -- 3 months ago when you presented your Q4 numbers, do you think valuations now are more attractive and you would potentially accelerate your acquisition or bolt-on acquisition plan? And if yes, what are the areas that you think are a priority? And second question is on the Italian strategy. [indiscernible] today's presentation was very useful to understand a bit the spirits of your plan. But if you can touch a word on Italy, I mean few competitors in Italy are positioning, growing. I know your aim is not only retail, but distribution is important. How do you see your growth and strategy in Italy in the next plan?

[Jean-Laurent Bonnafe, executive]

So looking ahead at the EUR 7 billion, I would say, flexibility we will get from the disposal of Bank of the West. We stick basically to what we said. I mean bolt-ons if they are relevant, technology, new business model, accelerating organic growth. So these are the 4 dimensions. We stick to it. And we don't believe that what happened recently in commercial market is going to change dramatically, I would say, the type of targets we might consider for bolt-ons. Bolt-ons are only considered if they can bring us a kind of acceleration in a number of businesses, complementing, I would say, pan-European platforms. And that's it. So it's nothing new in that dimension.

Looking at Italy, we have not only BNL. BNL is only basically half of the total we have in Italy in terms of top line. So BNL is only half of it. We are, I would say, present in Italy in other businesses, investment banking, large corporates, insurance, asset management, car fleet leasing, consumer lending, leasing. So we have good efficiency. It's a powerful platform, well integrated. We are not considering external growth, and we believe the organic way is really the best way for us to continue to grow in Italy, and that's it. So we are not looking at any specific, I would say, transaction. Of course, every day we're building new partnerships with counterparts, can be security services, could be consumer lending, could be a number of dimensions. But basically, we believe for us, Italy is the organic way. And so far, so good.

[Operator]

Next question from Delphine Lee from JPMorgan.

[Delphine Lee, analyst]

I just have 3 questions. First of all, if I can ask on just in your assumptions -- macro assumptions in your plan, you don't have a lot of interest rate sensitivity, but just wanted to confirm how much increase you have for short-term rate? And just thinking a bit to 2025, how much -- if rates were to go up much faster and by more than 100 basis points, how would that change your 2025 targets?

And my second question is on costs, and thank you for the presentation, a very detailed one. I just wanted to understand maybe the different moving parts between what you assume for inflation and investments compared to your EUR 2 billion of cost savings and I think you have also EUR 1.6 billion of cost to achieve. So just wanted to understand a bit the inflation component and the investments.

And just a very quick one on share buybacks. We have this EUR 4 billion buyback coming with once the sale of BancWest is done. But I think last year, you also paid out -- I mean, you've also done the 10% share buyback after Q2 results towards the end of the year in anticipation of sort of full year distribution. Is that still your plan as well for full year '22?

[Jean-Laurent Bonnafe, executive]

So on your last point, I mean, yes, of course, we have the 10%. That is a kind of regular buyback that we're going to have every year during the plan. So in '22, '23, '24, '25, there will be a 60% payout out, out of which 10% buybacks, 50% regular dividend. So the EUR 4 billion comes on top of that. So it's very simple. So if you consider that we will get USD 16.3 billion from the disposal of Bank of the West translated into Tier 1, it's the equivalent of 170 bps, 110 stay at home BNP Paribas, 60 bps to be given back to investors. That is basically EUR 4 billion. That will neutralize the dilution effect because of the exit of Bank of the West. Also, again, the EUR 4 billion on top of the regular 10% buybacks. For the other point, Lars?

[Lars Machenil, executive]

Sure. First of all, if we look at the interest rate sensitivity. So what we basically mentioned in our reference document is that for a 50 basis point parallel shift, it basically leads, let's say, in 2025, so the year of our plan, it would lead to a pickup of EUR 700 million. So that's basically what it is. And so if you go even higher, I'll let you do the math. And there is also -- I mean this is a calculation of a parallel shift, right? If the curve would just be steepening and just being anchored at zero, those volumes would even be higher.

Then when it comes to cost, yes, if you look at what we mentioned, so there is -- when we made our plan ramping up to 2025, if I take 2 points because they go together, look at rates and look at inflation. Well, rates, we expected -- or in the planning, we took the assumption that they would cross zero in 2024 and that there would be limited inflation. However, the way it looks now is that rates in Europe might touch zero basically this year, and that there will also be some inflation to go with it.

And those 2 elements, when we basically run everything, well, it has an impact on the top line and it has an impact on the cost. All of this, as I mentioned, and what Laurent mentioned before, is we have also the cost efforts to basically bring down the run-of-the-mill. And the main thing is the jaws. And so the jaws, they will be there, as you might have seen already in this first quarter. So from that point of view, we really stick to those elements. So Delphine, that would be our 3 answers to your questions.

[Operator]

Next question from Jacques-Henri Gaulard from Kepler Cheuvreux.

[Jacques-Henri Gaulard, analyst]

Thank you very much for the presentation. The new disclosure in particular as well as the presentation on technology and CSR. It was very fast. I hope we'll get to meet you all when we do the physical Investor Day later on. I had about 18 questions, but I'll bring them to 3. The first one is on Euro-Med where the performance was really, really good. You mentioned a one-off on Turkey, but I would be curious to know if you're going to have to do hyperinflation accounting there and to which extent the [ Polyshield ] curve helped you in Q1 and maybe to which extent this great performance will continue for the remaining of '22.

The second question was on capital. And I think you mentioned that all the regulatory -- I hope I understood that well, all your regulatory headwinds were included in Q1. Quite a lot of banks have talked about something that the EBA call return to compliance that could hit the capital later on this year. I was wondering if it's something you had heard about and is something that has been included already in your capital headwind.

And lastly, on the technology presentation in a way, I noted that you've developed in Brazil and Mexico with Neon and [indiscernible] agreements. Are these geographies that you would continue to developing on the back of the headways you're making into technology? And considering that your cost of unit is going down and that you have really strong engines now, would anything prevent you from really entering those new geographies and actually probably even lowering your cost to income ratio to 60% or below by 2025.

[Lars Machenil, executive]

Yes, Jacques. I'll take basically the first 2. If you look at EM, so yes, there have been some one-offs as we typically have, right? That's -- so this is what we have. There's nothing more to say. And then when you look at inflation or hyperinflation, this thing is, if you look at hyperinflation, this is typically something that the accountants "invented", right, when it comes to regular companies, yes, regular company because you have also the assets and the liabilities that basically get revalued. Now on a bank, that is a bit of a different thing because those revaluations are there. So at this stage, we're looking at it. I would assume that, that is not something that would apply to banks or to us in any case. So that's on EM.

When you look at the capital and the headwinds, yes, so well, there is the thing that we mentioned that basically, I guess, you saw in all of the banks is every so often, there is a new regulation by the European law. So implementing Basel, then there is a crystallization by EBA or by somebody else. And that typically comes over time, and then the bank basically with its run-of-the-mill earnings basically offset those. And now what is bizarrely happening is one of the first time that all of these things come at the same time. And so that's basically what we saw.

And then the other things that you talk about is, of course, there is a run-of-the-mill of review of models, which is actually a good thing, yes? It's the fact that to ensure that your advanced modeling work, and that's basically a stance that Europe takes, is they have to be reviewed and they have to be made verified and certified and that's an ongoing process that we have. And it's, again, it's an ongoing process that -- well, it's typically depending a bit on the bank and the heritage that it has and the insight that it has, and that is also part of the run-of-the-mill. But for us, nothing on the horizon in a material way. So that's basically that. On the technology, I don't know if there is -- I'm looking at if there is anything, Laurent, that...

[Jean-Laurent Bonnafe, executive]

On the technology, in the particular case of LatAm that was quoted, it is mainly driven by the fact that our insurance business in LatAm is very consistent and very well placed at the edge of the business there. So that's why going to technology, LatAm comes among the "examples". When we talk about Cardif, there is no specific LatAm initiative inside the group.

[Lars Machenil, executive]

Jacques, those would be our answers.

[Operator]

Thank you. Next question from Giulia Miotto from Morgan Stanley.

[Giulia Miotto, analyst]

Can you hear me?

[Lars Machenil, executive]

Yes, we can, Giulia.

[Giulia Miotto, analyst]

Perfect. Okay. And a couple of questions from me as well. I want to go back on the cost of risk. So I hear you that you expect the cost of risk to be below 40 basis points, which is very encouraging. But what surprised me in the quarter is that Global Banking had actually some reversals, whereas I would have thought that looking at the supply chain disruptions and higher energy prices, maybe BNP could have taken some forward-looking overlays. So how are you seeing the situation on the ground in terms of potential on corporate asset quality deterioration? You're not seeing anything? You're very confident on that? Or is this something that potentially comes at a later stage? So that's my first question on cost of risk.

Then secondly, thank you very much for the presentation on IT. I thought it was very interesting, and also the new disclosure on ESG. I have a question when you talked about being -- preparing for the future and discounting for new technology and fintechs. Which area do you think is most interesting for BNP there? Is it payments? Is it buy now, pay later you already acquired FLOA or anything else? I would be curious to hear your thoughts there. I don't know, maybe core banking systems. Yes, anything.

[Jean-Laurent Bonnafe, executive]

So on the cost of risk is -- basically, as of today, we are very confident because the quality of the book is great. You know that we are growing the balance sheet in the safe side. You saw the situation in Russia. If you take Russia, for example, we decided to deleverage 10 years ago. 10 years ago, we were around EUR 10 billion exposure in Russia. Then through a number of analysis, we decided that there would be probably over the time, a better, I would say, location of those exposures to other jurisdictions or business. So we started to deleverage and then we accelerated in '14 after the Crimea situation. And it goes that way in a number of businesses.

So well -- so when we saw the cost of risk at CIB, sorrow is just the situation. And where we are looking at the quality of the books and the companies we're banking, it's the situation. It doesn't mean that in a certain cycle, at a certain point, we won't see some kind of a pick up in a certain quarter. But through the cycle, again, we are very confident. And if you look at the level of stage 1, stage 2 provisioning at BNP Paribas, this is the highest one through the European banking system. So this is the situation.

Around technology, I mean core banking system, there is nothing you can do with just one technology around the core banking system. You have the cloud. You have a number of initiatives but globally, this is not the point. Technology is for anything that is payment, as you said, security services, market businesses, I would say, granting loans. If you look at Personal Finance, maybe 90% now of consumer lending is processed through, I would say, apps and so on and so on.

So again, we need to do a better job in terms of moving to the cloud, up to 40% of, let's say, IT space will move into the cloud by '25. This is for, first, safety, security; and second, efficiency. Then we have to have -- and this is also the result of the cloud. I mean we have also to open up the bank, so we can, I would say, fluent conversation, transaction with third parties. So we need apps.

As it was said, we need to do a better job looking at data also. So we need data scientist. We need to have, I would say, artificial intelligence. We need to have hundreds and hundreds of situations in which those tools are delivering better answers in a fluid way towards all counterparts, not only the retail or semis, but it's also for large cap, it's for, I would say, FICC institutions.

It's also valid for internal processes. Sometimes we tend to concentrate at doing a better job for our customers, counterparts, but sometimes, we have also to remind that internally, we have processes we need to upgrade. So this is really areas in which we are going to push the technology, knowing also that we have to look at what's going on, partner with newcomers, joint ventures. So this is the situation.

So technology is all over the space. I mean considering that we have 200,000 FT at BNP Paribas, out of which 36,000 are IT guys. So this is a good metric. I mean the technology, IT is all over the space. You cannot move anything at BNP Paribas away from the technology and the technology is progressing in all dimensions. So this is the situation we're looking at.

[Operator]

Next question from Matthew Clark from Mediobanca.

[Jonathan Matthew Clark, analyst]

Two questions from me, please. Firstly, coming back to an earlier question on the EU-Med division. I mean there have been really big swings there in the reported number in the past few quarters as you've had legal charges and then this quarter's undisclosed nonrecurring item and rate changes and so on going on there. Can you really not give us a better idea on what the underlying run rate is for revenues there? I mean, even if it's just saying whether the nonrecurring item is hundreds of millions or tens of millions or something to help us gauge what the earnings power of that division is as you come out of a kind of a period of disruption.

And then the next question is on the equities revenue line item and the impact of the prime agreements with Deutsche and, I guess, Credit Suisse also. Is that now at run rate as far as you're concerned? And I'm also interested whether you can say whether there's been a material contribution from the Credit Suisse referral agreement yet relative to the Deutsche Bank original agreement.

[Lars Machenil, executive]

So Matthew, thank you for your questions. So just on EM, yes, so I mean these are activities that do have some impact. So to give you the idea, so we mentioned there is this exceptional positive. Basically, this if you want to put that in a number, it is with 2 digits, but it is like in the higher up in the 2 digits. So that's a bit to give you the view and -- of where that stands.

When it comes to the Prime Brokerage kind of business, so yes, let's say that during 2021, we have been transferring clients so that they basically run on that system and are also integrated with the other services that we basically have. And so that means that as of now, we are in a run rate. I remind you that for the year, we basically guided that, that transfer generates like around the equivalent of EUR 400 million on a yearly basis, and we are in that run rate.

And then when it comes to, let's say, clients being transferred, well, the situation is that several of our clients, they basically have 2 providers and particularly 1 on each side of the Atlantic. And when it comes to this side of the Atlantic, well, this side, the European side, basically, there are not that many players involved at a global scale, and there's basically BNP Paribas.

So that means we step up our market share because in the end, several players want to come back or want to stick to also a European player. And so that's basically where we stand. So Matthew, that will be the answers to your 2 questions.

[Operator]

Next question from Anke Reingen from Royal Bank of Canada.

[Anke Reingen, analyst]

Just more of probably 2 follow-up questions. First is on the cost of risk. I mean, I hear you on the lower than 40 basis points guidance. But given your conservative stance, I was a bit surprised to see stage 1 and stage 2 releases. I mean as methodology -- driven by the methods, but I mean, given to be a bit more conservative would have made sense to keep it?

And also to understand, the slightly lower than 40 basis points is based on latest economic GDP expectations? And then on the technology, thank you very much for the detailed presentation. And to be honest, I'm a bit worried I don't totally appreciate all the level of detail you're giving us. So I mean, I suppose what I should be looking for, as you said, the revenues, cost savings. And how would you think your strategy compares to peers and relative to what you've sort of like your previous strategy? And then you provide the time line. Is there like -- it's all pretty much gradual or the key points or key points in time when we're looking for when this really all kicks in and should be running at full speed?

[Lars Machenil, executive]

Yes. Anke, thank you for your questions. So on the cost of risk, thank you for your clarifying question. So when you look at the S1 and the S2, so basically, on the exposures which are doing fine, actually, it might look like we have written-back. But in the end, that write-back is stemming from our U.S. activities, whereas if you look at our European activities, we have added to those provisions.

So why is that different? Because the stage 1 and stage 2 is a bit forward-looking, yes? So you have to reflect on what the environment is and does. And so if you look at the current environment on either side of the Atlantic, it's a bit different. So that is why if you see how the activities are, we basically have written-back the provisions that we have taken on the U.S. side, whereas we have been conservative and have stepped up a bit our S1, S2 on the European side. So that's basically that.

On the IT, I'll give the first answer and then see if there are some compliments. But in the end, as you know, and what Laurent basically clarified is that contrary to what we did in the past, we phase the investment. So we basically want the businesses to invest and to cover themselves. So that basically means they do an investment that lead to some of that impact, some savings, if you wish, which allow to do a next step. So therefore, the impact is really phased, yes? It is not backward loaded. It's basically a phase that you see every year, is delivering basically 1/4 of the total EUR 2 billion in '25.

[Jean-Laurent Bonnafe, executive]

In terms of time framing and comparison to peers, I would say that the most relevant item that I can see is that if you add the former plan and the coming plan that 8 years in a row that year after year, we deliver continuous savings initiatives more or less around EUR 0.5 billion every year in a very regular and punctual manner, and that might be the main difference with other strategies that we've seen in the former years from competitors.

[Operator]

Next question from Máté Nemes from UBS.

[Mate Nemes, analyst]

I have 3 questions, please. Firstly is still on Europe-Mediterranean. Could you perhaps give us a sense as to what extent the rate hikes in Poland are fully in the numbers? Or we should expect further benefits on that front? That's the first one.

Second one is on Global Markets sales and trading revenues. Can you comment perhaps on April activity levels, how were these different compared to February and March, given perhaps somewhat lower volatility, at least in the first 3 weeks of April? Have you noticed any difference on your platform?

And last question is on Arval and the Leasing Solutions. I'm just wondering if you're seeing any headwinds or risks to new volumes, given the still quite persistent supply chain bottlenecks in the auto industry. These are the 3.

[Jean-Laurent Bonnafe, executive]

So Arval and Leasing, of course, I mean, there are some, I would say, pressure on new volumes. But as you probably know, I mean, the value of the assets is going up in that type of a cycle, though there is a kind of natural hedge in between the fact that volumes are under some pressure and the fact that the underlying assets are pushing up -- are pushed up in terms of valuation. So all in, even in that type of a cycle, the top line as well as the net results are well protected. So this is for Arval. Unfortunately, we do not comment the current situation. So we can only -- last week, we tried to answer you, but we can only comment until the 31st of March.

[Lars Machenil, executive]

Yes. On Global Markets, listen, we cannot give -- we are not in that forward looking. So imagine, I tell you something and then tomorrow, it's different. I have to find your phone number and call you and inform. So we don't do this. But what I can give you as a guidance is that today, BNP Paribas with the bolting on of Cash Equities and the Prime Brokerage, we are basically present in Europe in all segments. So I can -- and you have seen that we are able to basically step up our market share in these activities as Q1 once again has proven. And so I let you look into the market, see what the market does, and then you can assume or you can deduce from that what -- how BNP Paribas is evolving. So that will be on Global Markets.

And then on Poland, where particularly that is, I guess, your question on Europe-Med and it's -- what we see there is that there is a pickup in the interest rates. There is also a pickup in part of the regulation, which basically goes hand-in-hand with that. But at the bottom line, we basically confirm our outlook '25 for the region. So Matt, that would be our 3 answers.

[Operator]

Next question from Azzurra Guelfi from Citigroup.

[Azzurra Guelfi, analyst]

I have a question on your commodity and oil and gas exposure. If you can share with us some detail on it in terms of like balance sheet exposure or leverage finance and things like that. I know you have a very diversified loan book. But if you can give us more color, that would be great. And the second one on the CIB revenue. Should we assume that now all the benefit of the perimeter changes of the deal that you have announced in the past is fully included and there will be no more scope effect?

[Jean-Laurent Bonnafe, executive]

For the scope effect, yes and no. In theory, yes. The reality is that, again, as I said, the [indiscernible] the strength of the new platform is such that even beyond the fact that we have completed those transactions, especially the Prime Brokerage services, still we are growing the market share. So accounting-wise, to some extent, yes, this is the end of it. But I would say the growth engine is there, and it will help, I would say, beat the average underlying business if you look at the average market evolution.

[Lars Machenil, executive]

Yes. On commodities, listen, as you know, we are not a commodity investment bank with truckloads of these. So if you look at our exposures, they are rather single-digit exposures, right, if you look at oil and gas and the likes. So for us, that's not that. So when it comes to those, what do we do? Well, of course, we accompany our clients. So our clients, they might be using one kind of commodity, then another in order to produce a product, and that is basically what we will accompany in them doing.

So that's basically the kind of business that we do. And in those that are, let's say, sectors that are explored to it, well, that's basically the exposures I gave you. And if you want, in our annual report, you can see the breakdown, and you can see that those are quite limited. So that will be our 2 answers to your questions.

[Operator]

Next question from Kiri Vijayarajah from HSBC.

[Kirishanthan Vijayarajah, analyst]

A couple of questions on the technology side, if I may. So on the technology slide, Slide 4, you show EUR 7 billion in IT spend for 2021. And I wonder, could you give us a feel for what that number would be in 2025, what have you baked into your financial targets between '25 in terms of how that IT spend might need to grow, if at all?

And then secondly, on the migration onto the cloud, could you give us a feel for the kind of percentage cost savings that you're realizing when you migrate the system onto the cloud? And with the different types of cloud options, you show a lot of detail on that Slide 9, is there much difference in the cost structure or cost saving between, say, the dedicated private cloud versus, say, the public cloud? So just your thoughts on how that's sort of really affecting the P&L and the cost base and this whole migration to cloud you're discussing there. So your thoughts on that would be helpful.

[Jean-Laurent Bonnafe, executive]

I will take the first question and give to Bernard. The second one, as far as IT spending is concerned, we indicated in the slide that we were at 22% of global OpEx and EUR 7 billion in 2021, and we wanted to maintain the relative part up to 2025, meaning that in absolute terms, there will be a slight growth of the IT spending, but not more than the general growth of our cost base average to 2025.

[Bernard Gavgani, executive]

So coming back to your question about the cost saving of -- to move to cloud. We have in cloud, 2 initiatives. One is our legacy systems that we are going to move to IT environment. Toward this one, according to what our experience so far is, our saving is between 15% and 20% depending to the complexity of applications. But this is only on one hand. On the other hand, you have the new initiatives, which basically are going to be developed in native in cloud. So this one can be in theory the calculation between what could be in -- if we were in noncloud environment or we are in cloud. So basically, if I answer you, I would more precisely answer you to about the -- our legacy system moving to cloud. And talking about the data, other cloud initiative and environment, I have to say that it depends, the complexity that you have. So you can -- we cannot compare our initiative that we have with the other initiatives that you could find on the market.

[Operator]

And next question from Pierre Chedeville from CM-CIC.

[Pierre Chedeville, analyst]

I'd like to come back to your Slide 18.

[Lars Machenil, executive]

Pierre, we don't hear you very well.

[Pierre Chedeville, analyst]

You don't hear me? Can you hear me? Is it better?

[Lars Machenil, executive]

Yes, yes.

[Pierre Chedeville, analyst]

Okay. Sorry. Yes, I'd like to come back to the Slide 18 regarding sustainability. I have 2 questions. First question is a detailed question, it's a question of detail. But I was curious to know regarding power generation, if you consider nuclear energy as a renewable energy when you fixed your target of minus 30%.

And my second question was more about the methodology regarding your -- you wish to decrease your oil and gas financing or automotive financing, for instance. I was wondering if you were discussing with the management of your clients, for instance, do you discuss with Mr. Pouyanné or other people in Total when you decide to decrease your participation to this industry or do you discuss with Carlos Tavares, et cetera, et cetera? I was wondering how do you mix the commercial aspect of your business and your voluntary to participate to zero carbon world in terms of methodology. Or do you decide from one side without discussing with your clients, it's like that and that's the way it is?

[Laurence Pessez, executive]

I would take your -- the nuclear-related question. So when it comes to reducing CO2 intensity of the power generation, it includes all types of sources of energy. So including nuclear, renewables, gas, oil and a little bit of coal we still have. Of course, if the question is, do we include nuclear in renewables, the answer is obviously no. It's only in renewables and hydro. And then Yannick [indiscernible].

[Yannick Jung, executive]

Yes. On the second part, we are in very, very close conversations with our clients around their own transition strategies. So it's not something that we just decide out of Senlis. We are basing our -- the modeling works we have done of the CO2 footprint of our lending activities is factoring in the transition plans of our clients. Beyond this, we are obviously applying an element of selectivity in the clients we are backing, notably in the energy space. We are, by purpose, mostly focusing on clients that do have a comprehensive transition strategy. And while we think they have the means to actually accomplish this transition. So we are -- these are the ones we are actively backing and working hand-in-hand with. I hope that addresses your question.

[Lars Machenil, executive]

Yes. Pierre, those would be our answers.

[Operator]

Next question from Omar Fall from Barclays.

[Omar Fall, analyst]

Firstly, just a strategic one on CIB. With the strong performance the breadth of the offering and the comments you're making, it feels like you're telling us that CIB is now an all-weather unit that performs no matter the environment and presumably deserves a lower cost of equity than what it's had historically. If this momentum continues, what's the real constraint on how big the business can be as a proportion of the group beyond the traditional 1/3 or so of the group? Just capital and leverage or some other metrics that we should think of? You've even moved the CIB section of the divisional slides to the front compared to the back of the deck in all the years I can remember.

Second question, could you discuss the strong top line in French Retail, please, especially given this is -- I guess, before seeing a big part of the benefit from higher rates? In addition, if you could just give us an estimate of the sensitivity of revenues there to [indiscernible] rate changes, please?

[Jean-Laurent Bonnafe, executive]

So looking at CIB, basically, CIB is 1/3 group. So this is the situation. And it's part diversification. It has vast amount of cross-sell with the other divisions and businesses throughout Europe and globally. Yes, it's -- CIB in itself is a diversified platform. You can see looking first at Global Markets, balancing, rebalancing in between Equities, Fixed Income and so on and so on. So again, the performance and the stability, those 2 elements that are key for the long-term growth are both coming from the size of the franchise.

It's really the point that is the basis of the strategy, looking at great growing counterparts with good, strong risk profile, and we are banking with them through that platform. And the fact that we are growing the market share, the market penetration throughout Europe and in a disciplined way in the U.S., the Americas and in Asia is at the basis of the success, too. And the fact that now, again, the platform is completed last year, and we are, I would say, all over the space looking at those businesses and products, we can proceed that way. So again, CIB now is running full speed. And yes, probably -- most probably has a good chance to beat the plan. But again, it's 1/3 of the company.

Now looking at the so-called French Retail. In fact, this is not anymore the French retail. I mean this is -- it was very simple for so many years to say the French Retail, but we changed the brand name. This is commercial, personal banking in France. I mean part of the franchise is basically innovative companies, mid-caps, larger mid-caps. I would say, companies that are, I would say, the best part of the economy, growing fast. And this is where we have a very large market share throughout France in the -- I would say, the key regions. And this is the Parisian region. This is [ Rouen, [indiscernible] Marseille, Versailles ] and the areas in which were so strong in those domains. And this was at the basis of the success of the first quarter. Then we have the private bank, by far, the leading bank in Private Banking in France with increasing market shares, especially when it comes to, I would say, with high net worth individuals. And we're also the first private banks throughout the Eurozone.

So the success of the platform, looking at the first quarter, is basically the success of the corporate universe, Commercial Banking, the success of the Private Banking, everything that is linked to, I would say, financial [ outlets ]. And really, that's it. It's a very qualitative franchise, very centered around what is the best in the economy, the French economy. But those domains innovative caps, large caps or growing mid-caps or private banking [ universes ], these are the 2 main, I would say, areas in which the wealth is being concentrated year after year. I mean the pure retail is not evolving at the same pace.

So this is very much the way it goes. And also, this is why we have decided ultimately recently to change the name. So it's not any more Retail. It's very much about Commercial Banking, Private Personal Banking. And even when we are talking of Personal Banking, we are talking of upper-affluent individuals. It's not really the pure mass market dimension.

[Lars Machenil, executive]

On the...

[Operator]

Please go ahead. No? Okay. So next question from Andrew Stimpson from KBW.

[Andrew Stimpson, analyst]

Thanks for all the extra disclosures and the detail on the technology budget and some projects. I've got my questions today, one on leverage and then the second one on ESG, please. Last quarter, we spoke a little bit about the leverage ratio and the target level being quite close to the future minimum. And one of the justifications that you guys gave was that's quite a blunt instrument, that it was very stable. But in the first quarter, it jumped down by 30 basis points to 3.8%. And I guess it's all a matter of opinion on these things, but it's moving around by more than the headroom that you're giving yourself in the target of 4.2% versus the 4% future or likely future minimum. Clearly, you've delivered an excellent quarter on FICC and equities off the back of that leverage that you've used. But how has this quarter made you consider that you might need a bigger headroom if you're going to be running a larger and more successful CIB unit? And if not, then why is the 4.2% still correct?

And then my second question on ESG. It's great that you boosted the financing target significantly last quarter. And it would be very good for all of us I think if we got those lending numbers quarterly to see how you're getting on with that target through the business plan. But I'm also interested to know whether you're seeing sustainable lending resulting in a net increase in the loan volumes. Or are you just ending up seeing lower investment from client A and a new sustainable loan from client B and then there's no real loan growth, this is just a thing that you should be doing? So is that initiative resulting in a net increase in loan volumes, please?

[Lars Machenil, executive]

I'll start on the leverage. So the thing is, if you look at it, let's not forget, always the leverage at the year-end is typically at that higher because there is very limited activity going on at the year-end. So what you basically see is that kind -- it can hover in a quarter where there is a lot of business activity, it can hover some 20 basis points. So that's intrinsically what you see because indeed, there has been high demand. We have been fully supporting the economy, as you can see. And so that's basically the 20 basis points, and that we feel fine with where it is.

On top of that, we have levers. We can increase the AT1s. We can decrease some repo activities. So we feel fully comfortable with that kind of volatility, which in the end is still at a much lower than what you could have on the common equity Tier 1 ratio, yes, because you do not have the risk-weighted asset fluctuations and so on. So we feel with that intrinsic volatility of 20 basis points, we feel comfortable. And the 20 basis points stemming from the fact that we fully supported the economy.

[Unknown Executive]

And on the -- your second point regarding the volumes of sustainable finance we're seeing, it's very much a tale of 2 cities. On the one hand, there is indeed an element of traditional funding in the loan or the bond market that gets replaced by sustainability-linked loans or bonds. So there's an element of this, and it's just a stability of the volumes in bond. But on the other hand, you also see a massive pickup in the requirements, the capital required to fund the energy transition. And this is all of the investment that is going into renewable financing and more generally, that will go tomorrow into the sort of low-carbon economy. And this is new. So this is creating new capital requirements that are feeding a pickup as a result in loan and bond volumes and to some extent, equities as well. You will see this in a greater proportion as we progress in the years ahead. This is, of course, a multiyear kind of transition. So you can expect a pickup from 1 year to the next.

[Operator]

Your next question from Stefan Stalmann from Autonomous Research.

[Stefan-Michael Stalmann, analyst]

My first question goes back to Ukraine, please. And you changed the accounting to at equity. Could you confirm whether that was done for the full quarter or only at the end of the quarter, please? And also, what is the performance in UkrSib look like in the first quarter? And is it so bad that there are actually solvency issues and then that may require a recap of the bank?

The second question relates to BancWest. Last -- I think you mentioned last time around that you have hedged the U.S. dollar proceeds of the sale. And given the stronger dollar, I would have expected maybe a mark-to-market effect -- a negative mark-to-market effect in the first quarter account, which is not there. Is that because you have gotten hedge accounting for this hedge? Or are you using an option type structure, which only protects against the downside but you still participate in the upside of the stronger dollar?

[Lars Machenil, executive]

On Ukraine, so yes, Ukraine, technically, again, sorry, you're talking to the CFO, right? So don't make me sound brutal, but the pivotal point was beginning of March, right? And so it is at the beginning of March that we basically considered that we would take it as an equity stake. So that basically means that we consider what we have as an equity stake. And so we reviewed the valuation in line with what the EBRD has done given their solid knowledge of what we have on the floor. And so that is basically what we have. And for the rest, let's be clear, with respect to the activity, well, you know what it is.

I mean it's -- the focus there is on the humanitarian situation, and we will have to see once that situation comes to a halt, how the overall banking environment will be restructured as it typically does after -- in a post-war system to be a vehicle, the banking system as a whole as a vehicle to reconstruct the country. So that's basically where we stand. And so we have an equity stake somewhat. We're still presenting a tad below EUR 20 million on that. So that's basically Ukraine.

And when it comes to Bank of the West, listen, we are not a speculative bank. So we don't take a very open position on how we do these things. So when you look at the overall hedging that we take, we do it as an overall stake in the sense of what kind of investments do we have, what kind of financing do we have, what kind of hedge is against that. And so that's basically what we do. So again, don't expect that we have a massive open position that would come over and above what you have seen. So overall, let's say, we focus on what we mentioned as the gains to be and that is kind of the run-of-the-mill you should take.

[Operator]

Last question from Flora Bocahut from Jefferies.

[Flora Benhakoun Bocahut, analyst]

The first question I'd like to ask you is really regarding revenue sustainability and the sustainability of the level of activity that we saw in Q1. I mean, obviously, you just printed strong results. I think you probably had record revenues ever this quarter. You have a strong level of activity across pretty much all your businesses. But then, of course, we had a war -- we still have a war in Europe that started in February. So there is uncertainty on whether the level of activity can continue at this pace. So the question I wanted to ask you is about the client behavior that you have seen since February. Have you noticed a change in behavior among your clients in the different businesses? Has the level of activity changed in what you saw in March and April versus the beginning of the year?

And the second question is really just a clarification on the Single Resolution Fund. I understand that it's up, the contribution 30% this year. I understand the drop that you expect in 2024. And what should we expect for next year? Do we need to expect another 30% increase in the Single Resolution Fund contribution in 2023 year-on-year?

[Jean-Laurent Bonnafe, executive]

The Single Resolution Fund, yes, in '24, it should vanish. This is the rule of the game. Next year, in a cautious approach, we could imagine basically the same level in a cautious approach because probably the global deposit banking -- base in the banking system will start to decrease slightly because of the change in the ECB policies. Also for the Single Resolution Fund, be quite conservative to consider the same level next year and then the end of it in '24.

Again, we cannot comment on the current situation. I can comment only down to the 31st of March. But if you look at the current cycle, basically, this is a situation in which you need strong banks, [indiscernible] bank that can support [indiscernible] customers, franchises in a diversified way. I mean needs could be different in some weeks, in some months. So this is really a situation in which the BNP Paribas platform is good at.

And we consider that this cycle, even if you look at the global economy, it will have a certain impact considered that the bank lately is very well positioned to support that transition. It's a new cycle. It's a new economic scenario, rents are going up. Some inflation is there. Sectors are, I would say, troubling this cycle in a different situation.

So we are in very good shape. We have very strong platforms, diversified model, ability to serve. So at the constant course, we consider that for BNP Paribas as a whole, it's a scenario that is rather, I would say, positive looking at the need to support the economy globally, could be through the balance sheet, through financial markets, payments, services and so on and so. So we're not typically, I would say, afraid of this environment. There's a lot to do, and we are ready to serve.

[Lars Machenil, executive]

Flora, those would be our answers.

[Operator]

We have no more questions [indiscernible].

[Jean-Laurent Bonnafe, executive]

So thank you so much. Take care, stay safe, and see you soon for the second quarter. Bye-bye.

[Operator]

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen, this concludes the call of BNP Paribas First Quarter 2022 Results. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.